《经济学人》|油价上涨可能阻碍世界经济反弹

Leaders - Oil prices来自一合相Nirvana00:0004:53

学习英语《经济学人》

上周的《经济学人》刊登了一篇关于油价上涨的短文，文章虽短，但知识量很大，也比较难，因此尝试着对其翻译。

The sense ofpessimismthathung overthe world economy early this year has begun to lift in recent weeks. Trade flows are picking up in Asia, America’s retail sales have been strong, and even Europe’sbeleagueredmanufacturing industry has shownflickersof life. But it would not take much bad news to reinstate the gloom. One threat is that oil prices continue their upward march—on April 23rd the price of a barrel of Brent crude exceeded $74, the highest level for nearly six months. Though the dynamics of the oil market have changed over the past decade, dearer oil still acts as a drag on global growth.

近几周，人们对今年年初笼罩于世界经济上的悲观情绪开始有所缓解。亚洲的贸易流量正在好转，美国的零售业一直很强劲，就连欧洲困难重重的制造业也表现出了生机的气息。然而不需要太多的坏消息就可以使人们回到悲观的情绪。其中一个坏消息是油价一直在持续上涨——在4月23日，原油的价格超过了每桶74美元，这是近半年的最高价。尽管过去十年中，石油市场的动态已经发生了变化，但昂贵的油价依然会拖累全球经济增长。

The latest jump in oil prices has resulted from anticipation of a shock to supply, rather than surging demand (see Finance section). On April 22nd America said that it would endwaiversgrantedto a number of big economies, including China, India and Turkey, which allowed them to import Iranian oil,bypassingAmerica’s sanctions regime. These waivers were put in place after President Donald Trumppulled out ofa nuclear deal with Iran in 2018. Theirexpiryon May 2nd could reduce the global supply of oil by more than 1m barrels per day (about 1% of the total).

这次油价上涨是因为受到预期供应冲击，而非需求增长。4月22日，美国表示它将终止对中国、印度及土耳其等多个经济大国的伊朗石油进口豁免，该豁免允许这些经济大国绕过美国的制裁制度进口伊朗石油。这些豁免是在川普于2018年退出与伊朗的核协议之后实施的，并在今年3月2号到期。这会使全球石油供应每天减少一百万多桶(约是总量的1%)。

That

is not the only threat to supply. War threatens production in Libya.

Sanctions against Venezuela have taken supply off the market. Although a

bottleneck in the Texan Permian basin will be relieved this year, it

does not produce the heavy, sour crude found in Venezuela. And, after

the American announcement, the head of Iran’s navy said that if it is

prevented from using the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of

the global oil supply flows, it could try to close the waterway for

everyone else, too.

除此之外，石油供应还受到其他的威胁。战争威胁利比亚石油生产；对委瑞内拉的制裁使其市场供应中断。尽管德州二叠纪盆地(美国一个页岩石油矿藏丰富的地区)的瓶颈会在今年突破，但它不能够生产在委瑞内拉发现的重质含硫原油。并且，在美国宣布之后，伊朗海军总部表明如果禁止伊朗使用霍尔木兹海峡(全球石油供应的五分之一都是通过该海峡运输的)，伊朗将可能关闭对其他国家开放的水上通道。

Oilinventoriesare low, and it is far from clear that other producers will increase output enough to compensate for the supply shock. In the long term Saudi Arabia and other opec members have anincentiveto avoid sky-high prices, which would lead to a new wave of capital pouring into American shale production. But the last time the Saudis complied with a request from the White House to pump more—after Mr Trump scrapped the Iran deal—they were then stung by his granting of the waivers. In public they havepledgedto keep the market in balance, but they also say there is no need for immediate action.

石油的库存很低，并且不清楚其他石油生产商是否能增加足够的产量以弥补供应冲击。从长远来看，沙特阿拉伯和其他OPEC成员(Organization

of Petroleum Exporting

Countries石油输出国组织)有动机来避免天价石油，天价石油将导致新的资本涌入美国页岩油生产。但是上次，在川普废除伊朗协议之后，沙特按照白宫的要求提高油价时，川普的豁免政策使他们不高兴。在公开场合，他们承诺保持市场的平衡，但他们也表示没有必要立即采取行动。

Working out what pricier oil means for the world economy is more complex than it used to be. In America gas-guzzling consumers will have to pay more to fill up their cars. But ever since the shale revolution, there has been anoffsettingbenefit to American gdp because higher prices stimulate investment in the Permian and other shale basins. Other producer countries are also more likely to spend any oilwindfallthan they used to be, supporting global demand. And more expensive oil should bring the benefit of lower carbon emissions (so long as it does

not prompt the discovery ofvastnew oil fields).

与之前相比，现在更难以弄清楚更高的油价对世界经济意味着什么。这意味着美国的耗油消费者给车加满油时将会支付更多的钱。但页岩油革命会对美国GDP产生抵消性的好处，因为更高的油价激发了在二叠纪及其他页岩盆地的投资。其他石油生产国也比过去更可能失去石油暴利，支持全球需求。另外，更贵的石油可能带来更低碳排放的好处(只要它不促使人们发现广阔的新油田)。

Yet right now, pricier oil would be bad news for the global economy. It would hit its weaker spots. Europe, whose economy is in worse shape than America’s, has no shale industry to compensate for a hit to its consumers. China, which imports vast quantities of the black stuff, was the source of much of the recent global growth scare. And economic crises in Turkey, Argentina and Pakistan would be made worse by the higher inflation and largercurrent-account deficitsthat a rising oil price would bring.

然而现在，高油价对全球经济来说是一个坏消息，经济比较薄弱的国家将受到伤害。经济状况比美国更糟糕的欧洲没有页岩工业来补偿对消费者的冲击。严重依赖石油进口的中国曾经是全球经济增长恐慌的主要来源。对于土耳其、阿根廷和巴基斯坦等正在发生经济危机的国家，升高的油价将会带来更高的通货膨胀和更大的经常项目赤字，进而使它们的经济危机更加严重。

Higher oil prices could also reduce central bankers’leewaytosee offany downturn. After oil prices rose in 2018, several central banks in emerging markets subsequently raised rates, fearing inflation. In America and Europe policymakers have this year been able to loosen the stance of monetary policy, providing economies with a much-needed boost to growth, because they can point tomutedinflation expectations. Higher oil prices could start to put that trend into reverse. With many labour markets tight, central bankers are more likely to bespookedby oildriven inflationary pressure.

更高的油价也会降低中央银行避免任何衰退的余地。在2018年油价上涨之后，由于担心通货膨胀，新兴市场的几家央行随后提高了利率。欧洲和美国的政策制定者今年有可能放松货币政策，为经济增长提供急需的动力，因为他们能够指向温和的通胀预期。更高的油价能够使那种趋势逆转。由于许多劳动力市场紧张，中央银行行长有可能被石油驱动的通货膨胀压力吓坏。

A

serious oil-price shock remains a possibility at this stage rather than

a probability. But with the world economy still in a fragile state, it

is an uncomfortable risk to run.

现阶段非常严重的油价冲击是极有可能发生的，而不是有一定概率发生的。但世界经济正处于脆弱的状态，这将产生令人不爽的风险。

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