Thinking, Fast and Slow-Ch10-11：
阅读进度：CH 10&11
Ch 10: The law of small numbers
我们的大脑，尤其是系统 1 更喜欢识别事物之间的因果联系。对于统计数字是极度不敏感的。
统计学里，大样本比小样本会更具精确度和可信度，因为小样本出现极端结果的概率比较大。因此，科学研究中，只要条件允许，都要经过仔细计算来确定样本规模，而不能依靠直觉印象来做决定采样多少。
The law of small numbers — 小数定律（样本效应）
这是普遍性偏见的一种表现，即对事物的信任多于质疑，因为我们的系统 1 不喜欢质疑，反而会抑制不确定信息，尽量想让信息保持连贯。
We are pattern seekers, believers in a coherent world, in which regularities appear not by accident but as a result of mechanical causality or of someone’s intention.
我们都习惯于在这个相互联系的世界里寻找某种规律。但事实上生活中很多事情都是随机的，只是我们不大愿意相信。
hot-hand effect — 热手效应
来源于篮球运动，如果比赛时某个球员连续进球三四个，其他队员会认为他 “手感好”，下次进攻还会选择让他投篮，但他不一定会投中。因为事实上进球和不进球都是随机的，只是系统 1 过快对眼前所见现象做出评判，感知不到随机事件中的顺序和结果没有因果关系。The hot hand is entirely in the eye of the beholders, who are consistently too quick to perceive oder and causality in randomness. The hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion.
Ch 11：Anchors
anchoring effect — 锚定效应
Any number that you are asked to consider as a possible solution to an estimation problem will induce an anchoring effect.
大脑在做判断时，很容易受到之前看到的信息（或数字）的影响，这个信息就像是沉到海底的 “锚”，我们会以此为基准，在一定范围内做出判断，但这种判断往往会导致决策偏差。
锚定效应有两种：
- 因系统 1 的启动效应而产生的锚定，比如一些闭合性问题中的 “暗示”（there is anchoring that occurs by a priming effect, an automatic manifestation of system 1.）
- 系统 2 对锚定值的调整不足（occurs in a deliberate process of adjustment, an operation of system 2.）
锚定效应在生活中十分常见，比如活动商品的秒杀价（标出的原价便是一种锚定值），拍卖活动中的起拍价（锚定值）会影响之后的报价，房产交易中的市场价（锚定值）会影响双方的讨价还价以及最后的成交价…...
CH 10
We explained, Tongue-in-cheek, that “intuitions about random sampling appear to satisfy the law of small numbers, which asserts that the law of large numbers applies to small numbers as well.”
tongue-in-cheek，作为形容词，表示 “半开玩笑的，不认真的”，in a way that is not serious and that is meant to be funny；注意副词形式为：tongue in cheek.
例句：I love that kind of tongue-in-cheek wit.（adj）
例句：The whole interview was done tongue in cheek.（adv）
CH 11
After all, it is not surprising that people who are asked difficult questions clutch at straws, and the anchor is a plausible straw.
clutch/grasp at straws，表示 “抓住救命稻草，作垂死挣扎”，to try to find anything at all that will help you or give you hope in a difficult situation, when it is likely that you will find nothing.
例句: I asked her for a loan. I didn't think she'd agree, but at that point I was grasping at straws.
plausible，表示 “貌似合理的，貌似可信的，花言巧语的”， reasonable and likely to be true or successful，反义是 implausible；
例句：I thought her explanation was perfectly/entirely/completely plausible. [=I believed her explanation]
