Russia and America俄美关系

Courting Russia 一厢情愿

Donald Trump seeks a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin.It is a terrible idea

特朗普想从普京这儿讨到大便宜。这想法简直糟透了

GEORGE W. BUSH looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and thought he saw his soul. He was wrong. Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria. Donald Trump appears to want to go much further and forge an entirely new strategic alignment with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he be the third American president in a row to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?

小布什看着普京的眼睛，以为自己看透了普京的心。结果他错了。奥巴马试图重塑俄美关系，可惜在他任期结束之时，普京已将克里米亚收进俄罗斯版图，在乌克兰别的地方闹事，还在美军撤离叙利亚并形成权力真空之后趁虚而入。而特朗普则更敢想，他要与俄罗斯打造全新的战略同盟。他会成功吗，还是会步前两任美国总统的后尘，成为普京的第三位手下败将？

The details of Mr Trump’s realignment are still vague and changeable. That is partly because of disagreements in his inner circle. Even as his ambassador to the UN offered “clear and strong condemnation” of “Russia’s aggressive actions” in Ukraine, the president’s bromance with Mr Putin was still smouldering. When an interviewer on Fox News put it to Mr Trump this week that Mr Putin is “a killer”, he retorted: “There are a lot of killers. What, you think our country’s so innocent?”

“双普”战线（特朗普与普京）的具体细节尚未明确，变数还会发生。特朗普亲信间的意见不和，是其中的部分原因。即便是在特朗普派驻联合国的大使都对“俄罗斯的侵略行动”表示“明确且强烈谴责”的时候，这位新总统与普京之间手足情谊依旧难舍难分。本周，一位福克斯新闻的记者当着特朗普的面将普京称作“一个杀人犯”，特朗普反唇相讥：“哪里都不乏杀人犯。怎么，你以为咱们美国是有多么清白？”

For an American president to suggest that his own country is as murderous as Russia is unprecedented, wrong and a gift to Moscow’s propagandists. And for Mr Trump to think that Mr Putin has much to offer America is a miscalculation not just of Russian power and interests, but also of the value of what America might have to give up in return.

身为一位美国总统，居然暗示在自己的祖国，死于非命的情况与俄罗斯不相上下，这可真是史无前例，太不应该了，简直就是给莫斯科宣传部门送了一份大礼。至于特朗普认为普京能够帮美国大忙，这不仅是对俄罗斯实力及其利益的误判，也是对美国可能因此而放弃的切身利益的低估。

The art of the deal meets the tsar of the steal

道高一尺魔高一丈（直译：会做买卖的碰上会占便宜的）

Going by the chatter around Mr Trump (seeBriefing), the script for Russia looks something like this: America would team up with Mr Putin to destroy “radical Islamic terror”—and in particular, Islamic State (IS). At the same time Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran, an old enemy for America in the Middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Europe Russia would stop fomenting conflict in Ukraine, agree not to harass NATO members on its doorstep and, possibly, enter nuclear-arms-control talks. In the longer term, closer ties with Russia could also help curb Chinese expansion. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s most alarming adviser, said last year that he had “no doubt” that “we’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to ten years.” If so, America will need allies, and Russia is a nuclear power with a 4,200km (2,600-mile) border with China. What’s not to like?

如果对特朗普周遭的聒噪之声进行梳理的话，他为俄罗斯准备的剧本似乎是这样的：美国将与俄罗斯为伍，一举摧毁“极端伊斯兰恐怖主义”，尤其是伊斯兰国（IS）。同时，俄罗斯或许会同意放弃与伊朗开展合作。伊朗是美国在中东地区的宿敌，威胁着包括巴林和沙特阿拉伯在内的美国盟国。在欧洲，俄罗斯将不再为难乌克兰，并同意不去骚扰家门口的北约成员国，并且，有可能的话，还将展开控制核武器的谈判。从长期来看，俄美保持紧密关系还有助于遏制中国的扩张。史蒂芬·巴农是特朗普身边最爱剑走偏锋的顾问，他曾在去年表示，对于“美国将在5到10年之内在中国南海开战”一事，他感到“深信不疑”。倘若当真如此，美国势必需要盟国的支持，而俄罗斯不仅拥有核武器，还拥有4200公里（2600英里）与中国接壤的疆界。这难道还不够好？

Pretty much everything. Russian hacking may have helped Mr Trump at the polls, but that does not mean he can trust Mr Putin. The Kremlin’s interests and America’s are worlds apart.

其实一无是处。俄罗斯黑客有可能在大选中对特朗普暗中相助，但这并不意味着，特朗普可以信赖普京。克里姆林宫的利益与美国利益可是背道而驰的。

In Syria, for example, Mr Putin makes a big noise about fighting IS terrorists, but he has made no real effort to do so. His price for working with America could be to secure a permanent Russian military presence in the Middle East by propping up Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was revealed this week to have hanged thousands of Syrians after two- or three-minute trials. None of this is good for Syria, regional stability or America. Even if Mr Putin and Mr Trump shared a common goal (they don’t) and Americans did not mind becoming complicit in Russian atrocities (they should), American and Russian forces cannot easily fight side by side. Their systems do not work together. To make them do so would require sharing military secrets that the Pentagon spends a fortune protecting. Besides, Russian aircraft do not add much to the coalition air power already attacking IS. Ground troops would, but Mr Putin is highly unlikely to deploy them.

比如在叙利亚，普京在打击IS恐怖分子上闹得动静不小，但实际上，他并未动真格的。普京与美国的合作是有条件的，也许是为了通过支持阿萨德政权，确保俄罗斯军队可以在中东地区永久驻军。而本周传出的消息显示，在阿萨德政权的统治之下，已经有数千名叙利亚人在仅仅两三分钟的审讯之后，就被定罪处死了。就算普京和特朗普拥有相同的目标（其实并没有），美俄两军也很难并肩作战。两国的体制无法实现相互合作。要想两军合作，就必然会分享军事机密，但五角大楼在保密方面可是下了血本的。此外，联军已经对IS发动了空袭，可俄罗斯战机却并未过多得参与其中。地面进攻亦有可能，但普京是绝不肯轻易出兵的。

Likewise, Russia is not about to confront Iran. The country’s troops are a complement to Russian air power. Iran is a promising market for Russian exports. And, most of all, the two countries are neighbours who show every sign of working together to manage the Middle East, not of wanting to fight over it.

同样的，俄罗斯也不会与伊朗进行正面交锋。伊朗的地面部队是俄罗斯空军的有益补充。伊朗也是俄罗斯商品理想的出口市场。而且，最重要的是，两国在处理中东问题上志同道合，他们均试图通过合作来解决争端，而不希望通过武力来解决中东问题。

The notion that Russia would be a good ally against China is even less realistic. Russia is far weaker than China, with a declining economy and population and a smaller army. Mr Putin has neither the power nor the inclination to pick a quarrel with Beijing. On the contrary, he values trade with China, fears its military might and has much in common with its leaders, at least in his tendency to bully his neighbours and reject Western lecturing about democracy and human rights. Even if it were wise for America to escalate confrontation with China—which it is not—Mr Putin would be no help at all.

有人以为俄罗斯能成为美国对付中国的一个好伙伴，这种想法更加不切实际。俄罗斯远不及中国强大，其经济衰退，人口萎缩，裁军不断。普京既没有实力也没有意愿要与中国闹别扭。相反，他很重视同中国的贸易，同时也害怕中国军队会和中国领导人一样，总是想着对邻国恃强凌弱，总是对西方教导他们的民主与人权嗤之以鼻。即便美国令中美对抗升级是明智之举，普京也不可能出手相助，更何况这样做其实根本就不明智。

The gravest risk of Mr Trump miscalculating, however, is in Europe. Here Mr Putin’s wishlist falls into three classes: things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions; things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; and things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO.

不过，特朗普失算所带来的风险对欧洲的影响最为深远。普京想做的事情分为三类：一是只有自己表现更好才能达成之事，比如西方解除对俄制裁；二是无论如何都难以达成之事，比如对俄罗斯侵占乌克兰领土的认同；三是可能破坏全球秩序的规则基础之事，比如美国对削弱北约的默许。

Mr Putin would love it if Mr Trump gave him a freer hand in Russia’s “near abroad”, for example by scrapping America’s anti-missile defences in Europe and halting NATO enlargement with the membership of Montenegro, which is due this year. Mr Trump appears not to realise what gigantic concessions these would be. He gives mixed signals about the value of NATO, calling it “obsolete” last month but vowing to support it this week. Some of his advisers seem not to care if the EU falls apart; like Mr Putin, they embrace leaders such as Marine Le Penwho would like nothing more（没读懂）. Mr Bannon, while admitting that Russia is a kleptocracy, sees Mr Putin as part of a global revolt by nationalists and traditionalists against the liberal elite—and therefore a natural ally for Mr Trump.

假如特朗普能少一些插手俄罗斯的边境事务，比如放弃美国在欧洲的反导防御计划，并叫停北约扩张，阻止黑山共和国原定今年入欧的计划，那普京自然求之不得。然而，特朗普似乎并没有意识到，这将是多么大的妥协。关于北约的价值，他释放出了多种信号，上个月称其“已过时”，而本周又许下誓言，说要支持北约。特朗普的顾问中，有些人似乎根本不在意北约会否解体；和普京一样，他们支持像玛琳·勒庞这样的领导人，简直如出一辙。巴农一方面承认俄罗斯是一个盗贼统治国家，另一方面又把普京视为全球民族主义者和传统主义者叫板自由主义精英的力量之一，因此，普京也自然而然地成为了特朗普的盟友。

Played for a sucker by a silovik

被毛子玩弄于股掌之间

The quest for a grand bargain with Mr Putin is delusional. No matter how great a negotiator Mr Trump is, no good deal is to be had. Indeed, an overlooked risk is that Mr Trump, double-crossed and thin-skinned, will end up presiding over a dangerous and destabilising falling-out with Mr Putin.

想在普京身上占到便宜简直是在做梦。不管特朗普多么能言善辩，都不可能做成什么好买卖。而且，还有一种被忽视的风险，即特朗普是个两面派和玻璃心的人，他很可能最后买卖不成，还与普京撕破脸，让事情变得岌岌可危。

Better than either a bargain or a falling-out would be to work at the small things to improve America’s relations with Russia. This might include arms control and stopping Russian and American forces accidentally coming to blows. Congressional Republicans and his more sensible advisers, such as his secretaries of state and defence, should strive to convince Mr Trump of this. The alternative would be very bad indeed.

与其讨价还价或是反目成仇，倒不如从小事着手，改善俄美关系。这也许涉及到军备控制，以及停止俄美梁军之间的擦枪走火。国会中的共和党人及特朗普身边更为明智的顾问们，比如国务卿和国防部长等人，应该竭尽所能地说服特朗普。如若不然，后果将极其可怕。

原文出处：经济学人网站

译者：linda10030

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