CHINESE-AMERICAN ECONOMIC TIES

The silk-silver axis

丝银轴心

The world’s most important economic relationship is also its most fraught
世界上最重要的经济关系也是最令人担心的
2665 words
SHANGHAI

fraught: If you say that a situation or action is fraught, you mean that it is worrying or difficult.

逝去的年代

1. IN 1784 the Empress of China set sail from New York, on the first American trade mission to China. Carrying ginseng, lead and woollen cloth, the merchants aboard dreamed of cracking open the vast Asian market. But the real profit, they found, came on their return, when they brought Chinese teas and porcelain to America. As other ships followed in its wake, the pattern became clear. Americans wanted more from China than Chinese wanted from America, and the difference was made up with a steady outflow of silver from America into China. The Empress had launched not just commercial ties between the two great countries but also an American deficit in its trade with China.

in sb's/sth's wake: behind or after someone or something

1）1784年，中国皇后号从纽约起航，开启美国第一次对中国的贸易访问。携带人参，铅和羊毛布，外国商人们梦寐以求打开广阔的亚洲市场。但他们发现真正的利润来自于他们回国后，当他们把中国的茶和瓷器带到美国时。当其他船只紧随其后，这种模式变得清晰。美国人从中国想要的比中国人从美国想要更多，这种差距由美国向中国稳定地流出白银而被弥补。皇后号不仅开启了两大国家的商业联系，也开启了美国与中国的贸易逆差。

2. The modern incarnation of this deficit is still driven by the flow of consumer goods, but nowadays electronic gadgets. In recent years it has reached a record size (see chart 1). When Xi Jinping, China’s president, meets Donald Trump—a meeting is reportedly planned in Florida early in April—the deficit will top the agenda. In his run to the White House, Mr Trump promised a combative stance against China on trade. Some expect America to slap punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering an all-out trade war. Others think a grand bargain that defuses tensions is possible.

slap: to suddenly announce a new charge, tax etc or say that something is not allowed - used especially when you think this is unfair

2）这种赤字的现代化身仍然受到消费品流动的推动，但现在是电子产品。近年来已达到创纪录的水平（见图1）。当中国主席习近平会见唐纳德·特朗普时（据报道这次会议计划四月初在佛罗里达举行），赤字将成为首要议事日程。特朗普在竞选总统时承诺在贸易上对中国持反对立场。有些人预计美国将对中国货物突然征收惩罚性关税，引发全面的贸易战争。其他人认为可能进行纾解紧张局势的大谈判。

图1

3. Many American businesses, bruised in their dealings with China, cautiously welcome a harder line. For their part, Chinese businesses feel unjustly singled out. Both sides are nervous, conscious that the world’s most important economic relationship is also its most complex. America and China are bound together by cross-border flows of goods, cash, people and ideas that are bigger than ever. These ties have greatly benefited the two countries’ prosperity. A rupture would be severely damaging for both.

bruised: to affect someone badly and make them feel less confident
hard line: a strict way of dealing with someone or something
single out: to choose one person or thing from among a group because they are better, worse, more important etc than the others
rupture: a situation in which two countries, groups of people etc suddenly disagree and often end their relationship with each other

3）许多美国企业在与中国的交易中受挫，谨慎地欢迎更加严格的处理方式。对于中国企业而言，他们觉得被不公正地挑出来（对待）。双方都很紧张，意识到这种世界上最重要的经济关系也是最复杂的。美国和中国通过越来越大的货物、现金、人员和想法的跨国流动结合在一起。这些关系大大有利于两国的繁荣。 关系破裂将对这两者都造成严重破坏。

4. The original sin, for Mr Trump’s most hawkish advisers, is the trade imbalance. Before China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, China accounted for less than a quarter of America’s total trade deficit; over the past five years, it has made up two-thirds. Peter Navarro, head of Mr Trump’s new National Trade Council, sees the deficit as a drag on America’s economy. Close it, he argues, and America’s GDP will be bigger. And he sees a way to do so: take on China over its unfair trade practices, from currency meddling to export subsidies. In 2012 he released a documentary, “Death by China”, as a call to arms.

If you take someone on, you fight them or compete against them, especially when they are bigger or more powerful than you are.
** a call to arms**: a strong request for people to fight in the army (figurative)

4）对于特朗普先生最为鹰派的顾问而言，原罪是交易失衡。 2001年中国加入世贸组织之前，中国占美国贸易逆差的不到四分之一；在过去五年中，它已经占三分之二。特朗普新全国贸易委员会主席彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）认为赤字是美国经济的拖累。他说，终结它，美国的GDP会更大。他认为有一种方式可行：为不公平贸易行为（从货币干预到出口补贴）与中国斗争。 2012年，他发行了一部纪录片“中国之死”，号召人们参与战斗。

5. Mr Navarro’s views rely on crude arithmetic that defies the most basic economic logic. In fact, big deficits often accompany fast growth. And it is misleading to focus on bilateral imbalances in an age of global supply chains. Counting the bits and pieces from other countries that go into “made in China” smartphones, fridges and televisions, China’s trade surplus with America is about a third smaller than officially reported.

** bits and pieces** also bits and bobs: any small things of various kinds

5）纳瓦罗先生的观点基于粗略的算术，违背了最基本的经济逻辑。事实上，大的赤字往往伴随着快速增长。在全球供应链时代专注于双边不平衡问题是有误导性的。算上其他国家用于“中国制造”智能手机、冰箱和电视机的各种零碎，中国与美国的贸易顺差净值比正式报告的要少三分之一。

6. Yet the gap ought perhaps to be smaller still. American companies insist that, with a level playing field, they would be able to sell much more to China. Some of the obstacles in their way are obvious. Carmakers, for instance, face 25% import tariffs. More often, barriers are subtler. Medical-device makers cite onerous licensing procedures and seed firms lengthy approvals.

a level playing field: a situation in which different people, companies, countries, etc can all compete fairly because no one has special advantages

6）然而，这个差距还是应该（变得）更小一些。美国公司坚持认为，在公平竞争的环境下，他们能够向中国出售更多的产品。他们的一些障碍是显而易见的。例如，汽车制造商的进口关税为25％。更常见的是，障碍不那么明显。医疗器械制造商引用繁琐的许可程序作为证明而种子公司的批准（周期）则相当漫长。

7. Indeed, America had been adopting a firmer approach to China on trade long before the election. Barack Obama’s administration stepped up pressure through the WTO. Of America’s 25 formal WTO complaints filed after 2008, 16 were against China. The administration also initiated 99 anti-dumping and countervailing-duty investigations against China, more than against any other country (see chart 2).

stepped up: If you step up something, you increase it or increase its intensity.

7）事实上，美国在大选前很久就对中国采取了更为坚定的做法。奥巴马政府通过世贸组织加大了压力。美国在2008年以后提出的25项正式WTO投诉中，有16件反对中国。该政府还对中国进行了99次反倾销和反补贴调查，超过了对任何其他国家（见图2）。

图2

8. China sees a pattern of unfair treatment. For Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the commerce ministry, what is wrong with the bilateral relationship is obvious: “American protectionism”. America has to cure its own ills and building walls won’t help, he says. Most emblematic is America’s decision to withhold “market-economy status” from China, which allows higher duties to be put on Chinese imports.

8）中国则看到的是一套不公平待遇的模式。对于商务部研究员梅新育来说，双边关系哪里有问题是显而易见的：“美国的保护主义”。他说，美国必须治愈自己的弊病，设立壁垒不会有所帮助。最有代表性的是美国拒绝承认中国的“市场经济地位”，这样可以对从中国进口的商品征收更高的税。

9. Chinese officials cite another example of unequal standards—the time-worn American complaint, made especially loudly by Mr Trump, that China fiddles its currency to cheapen its exports. China certainly does manage the yuan, but over the past decade it has let it appreciate by nearly two-fifths against a broad currency basket—more than any other big economy has.

9）中国官员引用了另一个不平等标准的例子—— 老套的美国（尤其是被特朗普大声提出）的抱怨，即中国干预其货币来降低出口价格。中国当然的确管理了人民币，但是在过去的十年里，它让其相比宽的货币篮子增值了近五分之二，比任何其他大的经济体都多。

10. Left to its own devices, the trade relationship between China and America should become more balanced in time. As China’s middle class grows, its consumers are buying more from abroad. Chinese demand for American agricultural products, especially soyabeans, has boomed. China is already buying more services from America then vice versa. One of America’s biggest exports to China is education. The number of Chinese students in America has reached nearly 330,000—almost a third of all foreign students—and is up more than fivefold over the past decade.

leave to (one's) own devices: To allow to do as one pleases:

10）任其自由发展，中美之间的贸易关系应该最终变得更加平衡。随着中国中产阶级的发展，消费者从国外购买得更多。中国对美国农产品，特别是大豆的需求旺盛。中国已经从美国购买了更多的服务，然后反之亦然。美国对华最大的出口是教育。美国的中国学生人数已达近33万人，几乎是外国学生的三分之一，而且在过去十年中，中国学生人数已经增加了五倍多。

Battle lines

11. But if Mr Trump carries out his most extreme threats and whacks a 45% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods, trade flows between the two giants—the world’s biggest bilateral trading relationship—would shrivel. Collateral damage to the global economy would be immense. The very survival of the rules-based international trading system would be at stake.

at stake: at issue ; in jeopardy

11）但是，如果特朗普将他最严峻的威胁付诸实践，并对中国商品征收45％的全面关税，两巨头之间的贸易流动—— 世界上最大的双边贸易关系—— 将会 枯萎。对全球经济的附带损害将是巨大的。基于规则的国际贸易体系的生存将会濒临险境。

12. China would, in a conventional analysis, suffer more in a trade war. About a fifth of its exports go to America, equating to nearly 4% of Chinese GDP. Less than a tenth of American exports go to China, worth less than 1% of American GDP. But a fight would also hit America hard. No other country could easily replace China in making many of the products, from toys to textiles, that fill American shops. Consumers would face sharply higher prices. American companies that have used China as a production base would struggle to reconfigure their supply chains. If American firms brought factories back home, prices would rocket. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, estimates that the cost of producing clothing would increase by 46% and smartphones by 37%.

12）传统的分析认为，中国在贸易战争中会遭受更多的损失。其约五分之一的出口销往美国，相当于中国GDP的近4％。不到十分之一的美国出口销往中国，不到美国GDP的1％。但一场战斗也将沉重打击美国。没有其他国家可以很容易地取代中国制造众多产品，从玩具到纺织品，来填充美国商店。消费者将面临更高的价格。以中国为生产基地的美国公司将费力去重新配置其供应链。如果美国公司把工厂搬回国，价格就会暴涨。投资银行高盛估计，服装成本将增加46％，智能手机增加37％。

13. Moreover, China would retaliate. Even if America as a whole runs a deficit, it has industries and companies that increasingly rely on Chinese demand. Nearly half its fruit and seed exports go to China. China is in some months the world’s biggest market for iPhones. Semiconductor-makers such as Qualcomm and Broadcom derive most of their revenues from China (see chart 3).

run: To accumulate or accrue

13）此外，中国将会报复。即使美国作为一个整体产生赤字，也有越来越多的行业和企业依赖中国的需求。它近一半的水果和种子出口到中国。中国在几个月内是iPhone世界最大的市场。高通和博通等半导体制造商的大部分收入来自中国（见图3）。

图3

14. All this helps explain why Mr Trump has so far trod softly in confronting China. James McGregor, Greater China chairman of APCO Worldwide, a lobbying firm, says that American bosses have been streaming into Washington for meetings with the Trump team to appeal for calm and to teach them that “China is not a country to be toyed with.” But perhaps Mr Trump has merely been distracted by the rocky start to his domestic agenda and it is only a matter of time before he lashes out at China. If he does, though, he will soon learn that trade is not the only show in town. Investment gets much less attention but is also vital to the relationship.

tread: to be very careful about what you say or do in a difficult situation
toyed with: to lie to someone or trick them, for example saying that you love them when you do not
rocky: A rocky situation or relationship is unstable and full of difficulties.
lashes out at : to try to hit someone, with a series of violent, uncontrolled movements
the only show in town: The only one of its kind available

14）所有这一切有助于解释为什么特朗普到目前为止面对中国时都小心行事。 一家游说公司APCO Worldwide大中华区董事长詹姆斯·麦格雷戈（James McGregor）表示，美国老板已经涌入华盛顿，与特朗普团队会面，呼吁冷静，并教他们说“中国不是一个被玩弄的国家。”但也许特朗普先生只是因为他的国内议程的不稳定的开始而分心，在他突然攻击中国之前，只是一个时间问题。不过，如果他这样做，他很快就会知道，贸易并不是唯一（值得关注）的。投资获得的关注较少，但对两国关系也至关重要。

15. Start with a myth—that China can bankrupt the American government. Over the past decade, China has invested more than $1trn in Treasuries. At its peak, America owed more money to China than to anywhere else. Pundits fret that, were China to dump its bonds, American interest rates would shoot up and the dollar plummet.

myth: an idea or story that many people believe, but which is not true
Pundits: someone who is often asked to give their opinion publicly of a situation or subject

15）从一个流行的错误观念开始——中国可以使美国政府破产。在过去十年中，中国在美国投资超过1万亿美元。在高峰期，美国欠中国的钱比它欠任何其他国家都多。专家担心,中国倾销美国国债，美国的利率会大涨，美元暴跌。

16. But that is to misunderstand the financial mechanics. The Federal Reserve has demonstrated that it can buy far more government bonds than any foreign or domestic holder can sell. China thus cannot dictate interest rates in America, much less push it into penury. And the volatility of the dollar is also a Chinese concern. Because Chinese companies borrowed heavily abroad, dollar strength has made their debts more costly in yuan terms.

16）但这是误解了财务机制。美联储已经表明，它可以买下远远超过任何外国或国内持有人可以出售的政府债券。因此，中国不能控制美国的利率，更不用说把它推向赤贫。而美元的波动也是中国的担忧。由于中国企业在国外大量借款，美元走强使人民币的债务价格更高。

17. Financial exposure goes the other way, too. Back in 2015 the Fed was planning to embark on a series of interest-rate increases. In the end it managed to deliver its second rise only at the very end of 2016. Jitters over China’s economy had stayed its hand. American investors have learned that news out of China can wreak havoc on their portfolios. Anxiety about China has triggered two of the three most recent “risk-off” episodes in global markets, as captured by the VIX, a measure of stockmarket volatility, popularly known as the “fear gauge”. This is the crucial point: it is not that China has the financial upper hand over America, or vice versa; it is that they are increasingly joined at the hip.

Jitters: a nervous, worried feeling, especially before an important event
stay sb's hand: literary to stop someone from doing something
** joined at the hip**: closely connected; always together

17）财务风险也是相反的。回到2015年，美联储计划着手进行一系列利率上调。最终，它只能在2016年底完成第二次上涨。对中国经济的紧张阻止了它。美国投资者已经知道，中国的消息可能会对其投资组合造成严重破坏。对于中国的焦虑引发了最近全球市场三大“风险趋避”中的两次，正如VIX所观察到的那样，它是对股票市场的波动性的一种衡量方式，被普遍称为“恐惧量表”。这是至关重要的一点：并不是中国对美国占据金融上风，反之亦然；而是它们的联系越来越紧密。

Mutually assured destruction

18. And these are just the financial linkages, which remain limited by China’s capital controls. Look at the physical investment ties between China and America and the mutual vulnerabilities are even more glaring. According to official data, roughly 1% of the stock of American direct investment abroad (money spent on assets such as factories, warehouses and shops) is in China. But this misses much of the cash routed through the Cayman Islands or Hong Kong for accounting reasons. An analysis last year by the Rhodium Group, an American research firm, took a granular approach to calculate that the true stock of American foreign direct investment (FDI) in China built up from 1990 to 2015 was $228bn, three times the official figure.
    18）这些只是金融联系，这些联系仍然受到中国的资本管制的限制。看看中美之间的实际投资关系，相互的脆弱性甚至更加明显。据官方数据显示，美国在国外直接投资存量（用于工厂，仓库和商店等资产的资金）约1%在中国。但这个数据未包含出于会计原因通过开曼群岛或香港流入（中国）的大部分现金。美国研究公司Rhodium Group去年的一项分析采用精细方法计算出1990年至2015年间在中国建立的美国对外直接投资（FDI）的真实存量为2280亿美元，为官方数据的三倍。

19. American companies initially lighted on China as a cheap manufacturing base; as costs there have risen, that wave of investment has tailed off. A new influx seeks to tap China’s consumer demand. In 2016 China was the leading emerging market into which American firms poured FDI. China’s booming middle class is forecast by McKinsey, a consultancy, to grow from just 6% of urban households in 2010 to over half of the total by 2020.

** light on / upon sth**: (literary) to see or find sth by accident
tailed off: When something tails off, it gradually becomes less in amount or value, often before coming to an end completely.

19）美国公司最初偶然发现中国可以作为廉价制造业基地；随着成本的增加，投资浪潮已经接近尾声。新一轮（资本）涌入，力求挖掘中国的消费需求。 2016年，中国是美国企业对外直接投资的主要新兴市场。麦肯锡咨询公司预测，中国蓬勃发展的中产阶级将从2010年占城镇家庭仅6％增长到2020年的一半以上。

20. For firms that have made it in China, the rewards have been immense. Through joint ventures with local partners, GM sells more cars, and makes more profits, in China than it does anywhere in the world. Over the next two decades, Boeing estimates, China will buy 6,000 new aeroplanes, becoming its first trillion-dollarmarket. Starbucks is opening new cafés in China at a pace of over one a day. On official estimates, some 1.6m people in China now work for American subsidiaries.

make it: succeed in a big way; get to the top

20）对于已经在中国成功的企业，回报是巨大的。通过与当地合作伙伴的合资，通用汽车在中国的销量和利润要好于在世界上任何其他地方。在接下来的二十年中，波音公司估计，中国将购买6000架新飞机，成为其首个万亿美元的大型市场。星巴克正在中国以每天开设一家以上的节奏开设新咖啡馆。据官方估计，目前中国约有160万人正在为美国子公司工作。

21. But success stories of American companies in China will not exactly warm the hearts of Mr Trump’s band of economic nationalists. What they want is money invested in America, not more profits made abroad. Forget for a moment that this policy risks doing more harm than good (preventing Apple or GM from going big in China would hurt them financially). The more relevant point—the one likelier to sway Mr Trump—is that the bigger investment flows these days are from China into America.

21）但是，美国公司在中国的成功故事并不会令特朗普的那帮经济民族主义者感到愉快。他们想要的是钱被投资于美国，而不是在国外赚更多的利润。先不管这一政策有可能弊大于利（阻止苹果或通用汽车在中国发展将损害它们的经济利益）。更相关的一点，也更可能改变特朗普先生的一点是，如今中国对美国的投资要比美国对中国的投资更多。

22. Chinese investment into America used to be tiny. No longer (see chart 4). Rhodium estimates that it leapt from about $16bn in 2015 to some $46bn in 2016, compared with $13bn invested by American firms in China. Chinese investments are already thought to support roughly 90,000 American jobs across several dozen states. The money is spread across virtually every area of the economy. Chinese companies have bought Hollywood production companies, car-parts- and appliance-makers, semiconductor firms and more.

22）中国对美国的投资曾经很小。今非昔比（见图4）。荣鼎集团估计，它从2015年的160亿美元大幅上涨至2016年的约460亿美元，而美国企业在中国投资的则为130亿美元。中国的投资已经被认为支持了几十个州的约9万美国人的工作。这些钱几乎遍布经济的每一个领域。中国公司已经购买了好莱坞影视制作公司，汽车零部件生产商、家电制造商以及半导体公司等。

图4

23. China is well aware that its investors can also convey a positive message. Witness Jack Ma’s meeting with Mr Trump, just before his inauguration. Mr Ma, founder of Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, boasted that his shopping portal would create 1m jobs in America, giving small businesses and farmers a platform to export to Asia. The promise was far-fetched (Mr Trump might appreciate that). But there was a kernel of truth: Chinese investors are only getting started in America.

23）中国很清楚，它的投资者也能传递积极的信息。看看马云在特朗普先生就职前和他的会面。中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴的创始人马先生吹嘘说，他的购物门户网站将在美国创造100万个就业机会，为小企业和农民提供出口亚洲的平台。这个诺言是不现实的（特朗普先生可能会很欣赏）。但是有一点是真的：中国投资者（的行动）在美国才刚刚开始。

24. Were it just a question of money, these investment trends ought to be the clincher, giving America and China every reason to stay on each other’s good side. But investment cannot be divorced from power, and that poses complications. Most obvious are national-security concerns. Both China and America have become more active in restricting each other’s technology and blocking deals that they fear might compromise their security.

clincher: a fact, action, or remark that finally persuades someone to do something, or that ends an argument, discussion, or competition

24）如果这只是一个钱的问题，这些投资趋势应该可以决定大局，给美国和中国充分的理由尊重对方的利益。但投资不能脱离政治权力，而这会带来复杂的问题。最明显的是国家安全问题。中美两国对于它们担心会损害其安全的技术和交易都已变得更加积极地去限制和阻碍。

25. But commercial competition casts an even bigger shadow. China and America are increasingly butting heads. “Made in China 2025”, an industrial plan unveiled in 2015, is indicative of how China is gunning for industries that America and other foreign countries have dominated. China aims to become a leader in ten strategic sectors, ranging from next-generation IT to agricultural machinery.

25）但商业竞争带来了更大的阴影。中国和美国越来越多地发生冲突。 “中国制造2025”是2015年发布的工业计划，表明中国如何正在竭力谋求美国等外国主导的行业。中国的目标是成为十个战略领域的领导者，包括从下一代IT到农业机械。

26. Critics in America warn that China’s state-driven model for advancing in these industries will cause damage around the world. Their worry is that China will deploy much the same industrial policy that it has used in sectors from wind power to high-speed rail: pressure on foreign firms to share technology; protection of local firms; targets to phase out imports; and generous state funding. “This could lead not only to China taking over market share but, because of its scale, destroying entire business models,” says Scott Kennedy of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, DC.

26）美国批评家警告说，中国由国家推动这些行业发展的模式将在全球造成破坏。他们担心的是，中国将部署与风力发电到高铁的行业大致相同的产业政策：施压让外国企业分享技术，保护本土企业，逐步淘汰进口的目标以及国家的大力资助。华盛顿特区智囊团战略与国际研究中心的Scott Kennedy表示：“这不仅可能导致中国占有市场份额，而且由于其（巨大）规模，破坏整个商业模式。”

Another casus belli

27. How America might respond to this perceived threat remains hazy. A committee recommended to Congress last year a ban on all investment in America by China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs)—a measure as likely to lead to a full-blown trade war as Mr Trump’s 45% tariff wall. A recent review of the semiconductor industry called for a stiffer response to China’s market distortions. Others argue that fears of “Made in China 2025” are overblown. Government interventions may work in industries such as solar power and railways, which are dominated by subsidies and public-sector procurement. But they have already been seen to fail in consumer industries such as carmaking.

full-blown: Having or displaying all the characteristics necessary for completeness

27）美国如何应对这种已意识到的威胁仍然不清楚。一个委员会去年向国会提出建议，禁止中国国有企业（SOEs）对美国的所有投资——这可能和特朗普的45％关税壁垒一样会引发全面贸易战。最近一份对半导体行业的回顾报告要求对中国扭曲市场的行为作出更强硬的回应。其他人则认为对“2025年中国制造”的担心是过分夸张的。政府干预措施可能在诸如太阳能发电和铁路等行业中起作用，这些行业以补贴和公共部门采购为主。但政府干预已经在汽车制造等消费行业有过失败的先例。

28. China’s government has tried to rebut critics of its industrial plan. The point, it says, is merely to give companies guidance about future trends. Meanwhile, Chinese firms, for their part, fear that obstacles in America are proliferating. He Fan, a prominent Chinese economist, says the feeling is that business in America is becoming more politicised. “You can only have long-term investment when the rules are clear,” he says. “Previously that was America’s strong point. Now it’s uncertain.”
    28）中国政府试图反驳对工业计划的批评。它表示这一计划只是给予企业关于未来趋势的指导。同时，中国企业也担心美国的壁垒正在激增。一位著名的中国经济学家何帆表示，感觉美国的商业正在变得更加政治化。他说：“只有在规则明确时才能有长期投资。以前这是美国的强项，现在不确定了。”

29. Easily lost amid the blaze of recriminations is the extent to which competition between China and America can also yield benefits. The two countries are already spurring each other to innovate. American venture capitalists are well embedded in the software cluster in Beijing and the hardware ecosystem in Shenzhen, a city in southern China. American private-equity firms are prominent in China, making bets on industries ranging from health care to energy. American multinationals used to build shiny R&D centres in Shanghai and Beijing to please officials, but did little original work in them. Now, firms ranging from industrial conglomerates like GE to biotech giants such as Amgen are doing some of their cutting-edge research in China.
    29）在一片指责声中容易忽略的是，中美两国竞争也可以带来一定的好处。两国已经相互激励创新了。美国的风险资本家深入了北京的软件产业集群和华南地区城市深圳的硬件生态系统。美国私募股权投资公司在中国市场表现突出，投资于保健、能源等行业。美国跨国公司曾经在上海和北京建立光鲜的研发中心，来取悦政府官员，但在其中并没有什么原创性的工作。现在，从GE等工业集团到诸如安进这样的生物技术巨头等企业正在中国进行一些前沿的研究。

30. China’s most inventive firms are also investing heavily in America in search of talent and new patents. Just this week, Tencent, a tech giant, said it was spending $1.8bn to buy 5% of Tesla, a maker of electric cars. Huawei, Alibaba and Baidu are its near-neighbours in Silicon Valley. BGI, the world’s biggest genome-sequencing firm, is opening a laboratory in Seattle to be closer to the Gates foundation, a big client. Mindray, a medical-devices firm, has a couple of American R&D labs. Lenovo, the world’s biggest maker of personal computers, is inventing and manufacturing B2B products in North Carolina.
    30）中国最具创意的企业也在美国大量投资寻求人才和新专利。就在本周，科技巨头腾讯表示，它正在花费18亿美元收购电动汽车制造商特斯拉5％的股份。华为，阿里巴巴和百度和腾讯都是硅谷近邻。世界上最大的基因组测序公司华大基因（BGI）正在西雅图开设一个实验室，以便更接近它的大客户——盖茨基金会。医疗器械公司迈瑞有几个美国研发实验室。世界上最大的个人电脑制造商联想正在北卡罗来纳州研发和制造B2B产品。

31. One possibility is that, as these kinds of cross-border business operations become more widespread, the Chinese-American economic relationship will settle down. Competition will be welcomed as healthy, not feared as destructive. But it is likely to be a long time before that happens. It would help if the governments could see eye to eye—in particular, if they could agree on a long-stalled bilateral investment treaty; and if they could reach an understanding on trade before their disagreements threaten the WTO itself.

see eye to eye: If you see eye to eye with someone, you agree with them and have the same opinions and views.

31）一种可能性是，随着这些跨境业务运作越来越普遍，中美经济关系也将稳定下来。竞争将被认为是健康的而受到欢迎，而不会因破坏性而被惧怕。但这可能是很久以后的事情。如果各国政府可以达成共识，特别是如果能够就长期停滞的双边投资条约达成一致，并且如果他们能够在其分歧威胁到WTO本身之前达成贸易谅解，那将会（对双边关系）有所帮助。

32. Both outcomes, however, are highly unlikely. The diplomacy needed to navigate the shoals of their economic ties is in short supply. China’s success in low-end manufacturing has already caused a backlash in America. As Chinese firms take on companies at the heart of the American economy, the friction will surely increase. It is enough to make one nostalgic for the days when their business involved little more than swapping silver for silk.
    32）然而，这两个结果都不大可能。用于应对经济联系问题的外交手段比较匮乏。中国在低端制造业方面的成功已经引发了美国的激烈反对。随着中国企业接管处于美国经济核心的公司，摩擦一定会增加。这足以让人怀念当他们的生意只是用白银交换丝绸的那个年代。

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原文出处：经济学人杂志

翻译：七呵夫

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