9月15日《经济学人》双语：人工智能将威胁人类？近八成高管表示没
A SPECTRE is haunting workers—the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). The fear is that smart computer programs will eliminate millions of jobs, condemning a generation to minimum-wage drudgery or enforced idleness. Never mind the robots, fear the software.
人工智能（AI）的兴起，让工人们倍感危机。大家担心智能计算机程序将淘汰数以百万计的就业岗位，一代人被迫沦为低薪苦役或无所事事。"别管机器人了，要担心程序"。
There is no need to be so gloomy, say Ken Goldberg of the University of California, Berkeley, and Vinod Kumar, the chief executive of Tata Communications, a unit of India’s biggest business house(which stands to profit from the spread of AI). They have produced a report that is much more optimistic about the outlook for ordinary employees.
加州大学伯克利分校的Ken Goldberg和印度最大商业公司Tata Communications（该公司从人工智能的传播中获利）的首席执行官Vinod Kumar表示，没有必要如此悲观：他们的一份报告显示，普通员工的前景会更加乐观。
In many cases,it says, job satisfaction will be enhanced by the elimination of mundane tasks,giving people time to be more creative. Their views are backed up by a survey of 120 senior executives, conducted for the report, which found that more of them (77%) thought that AI would create new roles than believed it would replace existing positions (57% respondents could choose both options). Extra skills may be needed to cope with the new technology and more than half of the bosses are already taking steps to train their work forces.
报告指出，多数情况下减少寻常的工作会让人们把时间用在更具创造性的事务上，以此提升工作满意度。此观点得到一项针对120名高级管理人员的调查的支持。调查显示，大部分高管(77%)认为AI会创造新的职位，而不是会取代现有职位(57%的受访者同时选择了这两个选项)。新技术需要学习额外的技能去操作，半数以上老板已经在采取措施培训他们的员工。
Previous technology shifts have not had as negative effects on employment as was first feared. The authors note some well-known examples. The authors note some well known examples. Barcode scanners did not eliminate the role of cashiers in America; jobs in the retail industry grew at an annual rate of more than 2% between 1980 and 2013. The arrival of automated teller machines (ATMs) spared bank employees the job of doling out cash and freed them to offer financial advice to customers.
历史上的技术转变对就业的负面影响没有人们最初担心的那么大。笔者想到一些众所周知的例子：条形码扫描仪并没有取代美国收银员的角色，在1980年至2013年间，零售业的就业岗位以每年2%的速度增长；自动柜员机（ATM）的到来使银行雇员不用承担发放现金的工作，他们因此能够向客户提供财务建议。
Some jobs could be made a lot easier by AI. One example is lorry-driving .Some fear that truckdrivers will be replaced by autonomous vehicles. But manoeuvring a lorry around busy streets is far harder than driving down the motorway. So the driver could switch into automatic mode (and get some rest) when outside the big cities, and take over the wheel once again when nearing the destination. The obvious analogy is with jetliners, where the pilots handle take-off and landing but turn on the computer to cruise at 35,000 feet.
人工智能简化了一些工作。驾驶卡车就是一个例子。 有些人担心卡车司机会被自动驾驶汽车取代. 但是在繁忙的街道上驾驶卡车要比在高速公路上困难得多，所以司机就可以在大城市外切换到自动模式(并得到休息)，在快到目的地时再一次操作方向盘。明显和喷气式客机类似：飞行员负责起飞和降落，但是在35000英尺处就打开电脑巡航。
Using AI may prevent tired drivers from causing accidents. Turning to office life, AI can help with complex and fiddly tasks like managing supply chains, allocating deskspace and keeping records of meetings. All this can free up time for people to work on more important strategic decisions. The authors also think that AI could help collaboration within companies. One obvious example is the elimination of language barriers. Multinational companies may have employees who lack a common language; AI can handle translation in real time so that dialogue is easier.
人工智能可以防止疲劳驾驶酝酿事故;在工作中，人工智能可以帮助人们完成复杂而繁琐的任务，如管理供应链、分配桌面空间和存储会议记录……这些都可以让人们腾出时间做更重要的战略决策。作者还认为AI可以帮助公司内部提升合作，一个显著的例子就是消除语言障碍——跨国公司可能有来自全球的员工；人工智能可以实时翻译，员工交流更加方便。
And the report argues that AI can produce better decision-making by offering a contrarian opinion so that teams can avoid the danger of groupthink. A program could analyse e-mails and meeting transcripts and issue alerts when potentially false assumptions are being made (rather like the boy in the Hans Christian Andersen tale who notices that the Emperor has no clothes). Or it can warn a team when it is getting distracted from the task in hand.
报告指出，人工智能可以提出相反的建议，团以此避免陷入群体思维的情形，从而做出更好的决策。一个程序可以分析电子邮件和会议记录，并在有错误倾向的时候发出警报（就像安徒生童话中喊着皇帝没穿衣服的那个男孩）或者它可以在团队从眼前的任务中分心时发出警告。
When a firm is starting a new project, AI can also suggest experts from other parts of the organisation who could contribute. In recruitment, managers could set criteria for“cognitive diversity”(seeking people with different academic and cultural backgrounds) when conducting a job search and allow AI to suggest candidates.This could eliminate remaining hiring biases in favour of white males. Helen Poitevin of Gartner, a research company, says that some firms are using AI to suggest training possibilities to existing workers, based on the career paths of similar staff, as an aid to their career development. And programs are also being used to analyse individual employees’feedback so that managers can be aware of specific areas where a lot of people are unhappy. If they react in the right way, this should make workers’ lives better.
当公司开始新的项目时，人工智能还可以推荐来自组织其他部门的专家提供帮助。在招聘过程中，管理人员可以在求职时为“认知多样性”(寻找具有不同学术和文化背景的人)设定标准，并允许人工智能推荐应聘者，这可以消除白人男性残余的雇佣偏见。此外，项目还被用来分析个别员工的反馈，以便管理者了解很多下属不喜欢的事物。如果员工们的反应正确（组长注：AI可以识别员工不开心的肢体语言，这样不开心时AI可以识别出来），这将使雇员的生活更好。研究公司Gartner的Helen Poitevin说，一些公司利用人工智能来根据相似员工群的职业发展路径，为现有的员工提供培训机会，来帮助他们的职业发展。同时，项目也被用来分析员工的个人反馈，以便管理者能够了解到很多人厌恶的东西。如果他们的表现正常，就对工人的生活有很大提升。
All of which is a useful corrective to some of the more alarming predictions about the potential effects of AI. But as ever, it needs to be remembered that programs are only as good as the data they are given. If those who input the data have biases, they may show up in the suggestions that it generates.As Ms Poitevin says, AI can help improve diversity in the workforce“if we want it to”，“The best employers should be able to turn AI into a positive for workers.“
以上这些都是对人工智能潜在可怕预测的有益修正。但与以往一样，需要知道程序只能与给定的数据一样好。如果输入数据的人出现失误，就可能会体现在人工智能给出的决策中。正如Poitevin女士所说，人工智能可以提升劳动力的多样性，“如果我们愿意的话”， 最好的老板应该能够把人工智能变成对雇员有利的东西。
