2022-06-09

气候变化明显增加了英国夏天迎来热浪的可能性。2018年炎热的夏日创下了高温记录，由英国气象局（Met Office）展开的一项研究显示，与往年相比，这次热浪席卷英国的几率因人类活动产生的排放物而增加了三十倍。

The blazing summer of 2018 was the joint1 warmest for the UK since records began in 1910. Met Office researchers have now analysed the record-breaking temperatures, using climate models that can simulate the world with or without the impact of fossil fuel emissions2.

2018年的酷暑是自1910年有记录以来英国并列最热的年份。英国气象局的研究人员利用气候模型分析了创记录的气温，这些模型能模拟全球气候在受到化石燃料排放物影响以及未受到它影响时的情况。

According to the scientists, in the absence of global warming, the odds3 of a UK heatwave like this summer's were less than half a percent in any given year. But a changing climate means this has now risen to 12%, or about once every eight years.

据科学家们的说法，在没有全球气候变暖的情况下，英国迎来像今夏这样的热浪的几率在任何一年里都不到 0.5%。但不断变化的气候意味着这一比例上升到了 12%，或大约每八年一次。

By looking at records of temperatures in England that date back three hundred years, the Met Office was able to say that summers as warm as 2018 were very rare before the Industrial Revolution.