2019-07-20 预测2030年

大家好！这周的“每周一段”选自 7 月 4 日《经济学人》The World If 板块的 A different dystopia: July 2030 一文（https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2019/07/06/a-different-dystopia-july-2030），文章想象了 2030 年如果 AI 技术进步过慢，机器人数量不够世界会变成什么样子。注意阅读这篇文章时，要知道写 2030 年用的是一般现在时，在这之前发生的事情用的都是过去式。

一、文本

That itself might not have been an insuperable problem. After all, the British workforce was at least still growing, unlike Japan’s or China’s. But Britain was already suffering from a skills shortage. As doctors retired and Spanish-born nurses went home, the country found it increasingly difficult to replace them, giving rise to a series of stomach-churning medical scandals which undermined the health service’s already-tattered reputation. Similarly, successive governments’ promises to build more houses foundered on a lack of suitable workers.

译文：

这本身可能不是一个不可克服的问题。毕竟，不像日本和中国，英国的劳动力至少还在增长。但是英国已经在遭受技术人才短缺的困扰。随着医生退休，西班牙出生的护士回国，英国人发现越来越难以找到人替代他们，从而引发了一系列令人反胃的医疗丑闻，这些丑闻损害了医疗服务体系已经很糟糕的声誉。同样，历届政府承诺建造更多住房，但由于缺乏合适的工人而失败。

二、段落解读

这篇文章一共 11 段，选段为第 6 段。为方便临摹，这段有删减，个别地方有微调，调整后的段落一共有 5 句话。 

这段话第一句中的主语“that”指代的是上一段提到的英国老龄化和劳动力人口减少的问题：

As ageing began to have a larger effect, the population increased by just 6.5% between 2016 and 2030, while net migration dropped to a few thousand a year. The workforce grew by barely 1% in total during that period. 

调整后的段落适合这样的写作：透过表面问题，挖掘真正的问题。第 1 句总写英国的老龄化和劳动力人口减少本身不是不可调和的问题；第 2 句解释为什么（乐观情况）；第 3 句写真正的问题所在；第 4-5 句从医疗和建筑行业具体写真正的问题，即技术人才短缺。 

我们重点来赏析第 4 句：

As doctors retired and Spanish-born nurses went home, the country found it increasingly difficult to replace them, giving rise to a series of stomach-churning medical scandals which undermined the health service’s already-tattered reputation.   

一个长句把技术人才短缺对医疗行业的影响给充分表达出来了。我们可以试着还原这个句子的结构：  条件（how）--›结果（what）--›影响（so what）--›影响 x 2（then what）。 

这里的启发是，若想充分展开一个观点，可以多问 so what 和 then what，而且可以用一句话来表达整个完整的思路。

三、句子学习

可直接背诵和使用的句子   

a) That itself might not have been an insuperable problem. 

b) As doctors retired and Spanish-born nurses went home, the country found it increasingly difficult to replace them, giving rise to a series of stomach-churning medical scandals which undermined the health service’s already-tattered reputation.

四、段落仿写

Version A:  毕业生 John 刚参加工作会遇到压力

That [John making 7,000 RMB a month] itself might not have been an insuperable problem. After all, John got a good job and his transition from student to employee was seamless. The real issue is the relatively high living expenses after college. Whereas he used to pay just 1,500 a year for housing, now he has to pay the same amount every month. The luxuries of eating subsidized 15-yuan meals are gone too. To adapt to the new post-college life, he has to learn to be more budget-conscious.   

Version B:  创业公司 M 融资不顺并非真正问题 

That [the startup M failed to raise the latest round of funding] itself might not have been an insuperable problem. After all, the startup M secured the last round of fund raising and still has some unused cash, unlike most of its counterparts that have been cash-strapped. But it is not growing fast enough. As the economy slows down, people are more wary about spending, making acquisition of new users both harder and more costly, which exacerbates the operation of the business.

五、作业 

参考第四部分的段落仿写，写一段话。 

说明：如果觉得这个作业太难，可以在仿写前先仔细阅读精选的段落和两个段落改写版本。如果实在觉得难以下笔，建议模仿第二部分段落解读，用中文解读 Version A 或 Version B，着重体会段落中句子之间的逻辑关系。

That [having no constant location to hold meetings] itself might not have been an insuperable problem. After all, Booster Toastmasters Club still holds high-quality meetings weekly with the help of members from other clubs. But Booster has already been suffering from a members shortage. Whereas it used to have two-thirds members attending a twenty-or-so persons meeting, now it has only two to three members every time. As some members, even club officers quit, the president has found it increasingly difficult to make sure it runs well. Similarly, successive officers teams’ promises to organize varied activities have foundered on a lack of enough attendants.