Lebanon-City in ruins(黎巴嫩-废墟之城)

A massive explosion caused by spectacular negligence shatters an already-reeling Lebanese capital

一场由重大疏忽导致的大爆炸摧毁了摇摇欲坠的黎巴嫩政府

The clock had just struck 6pm when the world shook. From Sassine Square, one mile (1.6km) from the blast, it seemed like a car bomb or a gas explosion—a disaster, but a localised one. Only on the drive down towards the Mediterranean did the scale of the devastation become clear. Streets were blanketed with broken glass that rained down from battered buildings. At a busy intersection three women sat in the median holding scraps of fabric to bloodied heads. Beirut was an assault on the senses: the crunch of glass under tyres, the wail of sirens, the acrid smell of smoke.

世界在下午6点的时候被震惊了。在距离爆炸点1.6公里 Sassine 广场来看，这场灾难似乎是汽车爆炸或者燃气爆炸，但这只是片面的。只有在驶往地中海的途中，破坏的规模才逐渐变的清晰。从被撞坏的高楼上落下的碎玻璃铺满了街道。在一个繁忙的十字路口中间，坐着三名妇女，手里拿着碎布擦着流血的头部。贝鲁特感觉像是被袭击了：轮胎下的玻璃发出吱吱嘎嘎的声音，警笛在尖锐的响着，到处散发着刺鼻的气味。

The explosion at Beirut’s port on August 4th was gigantic. Residents of Cyprus felt it, 150 miles (240km) away. Seismological monitors in Jordan registered it as the equivalent of a minor earthquake. The shock wave left much of Beirut’s city centre in ruins. By the next evening the death toll was 135, a number that will surely rise as rescuers dig through the rubble. Another 5,000 people were injured. The financial cost will run into the billions, in a country that can ill afford to pay.

八月四日发生在贝鲁特港口的爆炸规模巨大。240公里外 Cyprus 居民都能感受得到。约旦的地震检测员把这次爆炸和一次小地震等同记录。冲击波使贝鲁特城市中心大部分成为了废墟。到第二天晚上，死亡人数已达135人。这个数字随着营救人员在碎石中的挖掘，一定还会上升。另外还有5000人受伤。所造成的财政损失将达数十亿，而这个国家却无力支付。

The cause seems to be negligence, a mind-boggling degree of it, even by the debased standards of Lebanon’s government. In 2013 Lebanon seized a cargo of ammonium nitrate, used in fertiliser and in explosives for mining and quarrying, from the mv Rhosus, a Russian-owned vessel plying the seas from Georgia to Mozambique. The chemicals, all 2,750 tonnes of them, were stored in a warehouse at the port. (The Oklahoma City bombers in 1995 used just two tonnes of the stuff to kill 168 people.) Some officials warned of the danger of keeping a giant bomb next to a population centre. Their pleas were ignored.

事件起因开起来像是疏忽大意，即便是以黎巴嫩政府低质量的标准，也让人对这种疏忽程度心生诧异。在2013年黎巴嫩查获了一艘装有硝酸铵的货船，硝酸铵是用于肥料和采石、采矿炸药的原料。当时这艘叫做 罗兹号的俄罗斯的旧船正在格鲁吉亚往莫桑比克的海域航行。化学原料总共有 2750吨，被存储在港口的仓库中。（1995年，Oklahoma 城市的袭击者仅仅用了2吨材料就造成了178人死亡）一些政府官员发出了警告，认为在人口中心旁边放置这样一个举行炸弹是危险的。但他们的请求被忽略了。

It is still unclear what ignited the stockpile. Local media suggest that workers were welding nearby. Whatever the cause, it sent forth a towering fireball and a shock wave that slammed across half of Beirut. A sickly plume of reddish smoke lingered over the city long into the night. Scientists interviewed on television warned residents to shut their windows and wear masks because of toxic fumes laced with nitric acid.

目前还不清楚是什么点燃了这些储备。当地媒体报道说是因为工人在附近焊接造成。无论是什么原因导致，这个爆炸发出了高耸入云的火球以及强劲的冲击波，冲击了半个贝鲁特。一股令人作呕的羽毛状红色烟雾在城市上空徘徊，直到深夜。在电视采访中，科学家警告居民关闭门窗并且带上口罩，因为这是含有硝酸的有毒气体。

The country’s intensive-care wards were already near capacity because of a recent spike in covid-19 cases. None was prepared for the influx of thousands of urgent cases in a single night. At Saint George hospital, a kilometre from the port, the damage was so severe that doctors had to halt surgeries and evacuate the building. Four nurses were killed by the blast and 15 patients on respirators died when their machines shut down. Other patients, clad in their hospital gowns, some with iv lines still attached to their arms, sat bleeding and stunned in a car park across the street. “It’s apocalyptic. There’s no other word for it,” said a neurosurgeon at the hospital

因为新冠病例的激增，这个国家的重症病房已经接近饱和。对一夜之间涌入的数千紧急病例毫无准备。距离港口一公里外的 Saint George 医院，因为损坏过于严重，不得不终止手术撤离医院。4个护士在爆炸中死亡，15名病人因为呼吸机突然停止而死亡。其他病人，穿着医院的病服，有一些甚至胳膊上还扎着吊针，浑身是血、目瞪口呆的坐在街对面停车场里面。医院的一位神经外科医生说：”这就是世界末日，没有其它言语能够描述了“

In a nearby apartment building the stairs were slick with blood left by residents fleeing their ruined flats. Inside, doors were blown off their hinges; furniture took flight. An estimated 300,000 people, nearly 5% of the country’s population, were left homeless by the blast. Some found shelter with family or friends. Others had nowhere to go. They swept broken glass off their furniture and bedded down for the night in flats without windows or doors or electricity. The city looked no better the next morning. Workers with brooms swept up glass until it overflowed dumpsters and piled in heaps on the kerb. Pedestrians looked up nervously as they walked, lest falling debris land on their heads.

在附近的一座公寓里，居民逃离时留下的鲜血染满了楼梯。从里面看，门被吹离门框，家具乱飞。据估计，这场爆炸导致30万人无家可归，接近这个国家人口的 5%。一些人向亲友寻求避身之所。还有一些人无处可去。他们轻扫了家具上的碎玻璃，在没有窗户、没有门、没有电的公寓中过夜。这座城市到第二天早上看起来也没有好转。工人们拿着扫帚清扫玻璃，直到垃圾箱被装满，堆在路边。行人走路时紧张的抬头往上看，担心碎片从天而将落到他们的头上。

Repairing the damage would be a tall order in good times. These are not good times in Lebanon. The economy has all but collapsed since October. Its currency, the pound, had been pegged for decades at 1,500 to the dollar. But the country has run short of dollars to maintain the peg and finance its yawning trade deficit. It can no longer sustain a years-long Ponzi scheme that saw the central bank (Banque du Liban, or bdl) borrow dollars from commercial banks in exchange for above-market interest payments. The pound now trades at more than 8,000 on the black market, an 80% devaluation from the official rate. The government defaulted on its debts in March for the first time in history.

在年头好的时候，修复这些损失也将是一项艰巨的任务。而现在黎巴嫩情况并不乐观。自从10月份以来，经济已经全面崩溃。几十年来，其法定货币与美元的汇率一直固定在1500：1 。但是该国为了保住汇率和为其不断增长的贸易逆差筹集资金已经用尽了美元储备。长达数年的庞氏骗局终于无法维持，也就是央行为了获得高额利息，从商业银行中借取美元。本国货币在黑市上的汇率为 8000 ，相比官方贬值了80% 。政府在3月份违约了债务，这是其有史以来第一次。

For most Lebanese life has become a seemingly endless succession of crises. Consumer prices are rising by 90% a year and by 246% for food. A 500-gram jar of Nescafé can cost 10% of the monthly minimum wage; a kilo of beef goes for 15%. The army stopped serving meat to soldiers to cut costs. On June 30th the government raised bread prices by a third, the first increase in a decade. Half the country now lives below the poverty line, and threequarters may need aid by year’s end

对于大部分黎巴嫩人民来说，生活似乎已经变成了一连串无休止的危机。日用品价格一年上涨了90% ，食品则上涨了 246% 。一罐 500克的雀巢咖啡的价格是最低月薪的10% 。一公斤牛肉则是月薪的15% 。为了节省开支，部队停止向士兵提供肉类食物了。6月30日，政府将面包价格提高了三分之一，这是十年来的首次上涨。这个国家有一半人生活在贫困线以下，到年底会将有四分之三的人需要援助。

Fuel shortages have led to interminable midsummer blackouts: power cuts in Beirut, normally three hours a day, stretched up to 20 hours in July. Back-up generators ran out of diesel or broke down from overuse, leaving many Lebanese in hot, dark apartments. Ogero, the state telecoms monopoly, has warned of internet outages if it cannot power its infrastructure. The main

public hospital treating covid-19 patients had to shut wards and turn off air-conditioners because of the black-outs. Petty crime was already on the rise, even before the explosion that left thousands of apartments open to intruders. One man held up a pharmacy at gunpoint—for nappies. Another robbed a pedestrian, then came back to apologise, saying he needed the cash to feed his family

因为燃料短缺，导致在盛夏还无休止的停电：在布鲁特，正常情况下每天停电三个小时，而到了7月份则延长到了20个小时。备用发电机有的柴油耗尽，有的因过度使用而发生了故障，这导致许多黎巴嫩人不得不呆在黑暗、酷热的公寓里。国有电信垄断企业 Ogero 警告说，如果无法为其基础设施供电，网络将会中断。因为停电，治疗新冠患者的主要公立医院不得不关闭病房并关掉空调。在爆炸使得数千栋公寓对闯入者大门敞开之前，犯罪率已经在上升了。一名男子持枪抢劫了一个药店，只是为了几片尿布。另外一名抢劫了一位行人，随后又回头道歉，说这是为了养活家人。

The government, installed in January, was meant to be a technocratic one that would tackle the economic crisis. It has accomplished almost nothing. After the default it asked the imf for a financial agreement worth up to $10bn. Several months and 20 meetings later there is no progress towards a deal—because Lebanon is still negotiating with itself

今年1月新组建的政府，本来是想以技术方式化解经济危机。但却几乎没有取得任何成绩。在违约后，它请求国际基金会达成一项价值100亿美元的金融协议。几个月过去了，经过20次谈判，这件事情依然毫无进展。因为在黎巴嫩内部还没达成一致。

The cabinet and the parliament are bickering about the size of the financial sector’s losses. In an economic plan released in April, the government estimated a net loss of 154trn pounds between the bdl and commercial banks. (The plan optimistically envisions an exchange rate of 3,500 pounds to the dollar.) That was the starting point for talks with the imf. But the country’s bankers are furious about the government plan, which would clean up balance sheets by wiping out shareholders and the largest depositors. They released their own accounting that estimates losses at less than half the official figure, largely thanks to an even more unrealistic estimate of Lebanon’s future exchange rate. “It’s the same kind of financial wizardry that got us into this mess,” says Henri Chaoul, a former financial adviser to the government.

内阁和议会一直就金融部门的损失规模争吵。在四月公布的一项经济计划中，政府估计在 bdl 和商业银行之间的净亏损为 154万亿镑。（这项计划乐观的设想了 3500：1的汇率）这是与国际基金会谈判的起点。但是国内的银行家们对政府的计划感到愤怒，这项计划将会通过消灭股东和大额储户来清理资产负债表。他们公布了自己家的账目，评估的损失不到官方数字的一半，这很大程度上是由于对黎巴嫩未来不切合实际的费率的预估。政府前财政顾问 Henri Chaoul 说道：“这是使我们陷入困境的金融巫术。”

Mr Chaoul resigned in June in protest over the impasse. The imf is still talking with the cabinet: they held a meeting on July 10th focused on the electricity sector. But the fund has warned that negotiations can progress only if Lebanon agrees on one set of numbers, or if the cabinet pushes

through a few meaningful reforms as a show of good faith. Neither has happened. “It’s criminal,” says Alain Bifani, a former director-general of the finance ministry, who also quit his job in protest

为了抗议当前的僵局，Chaoul 先生于 6月份辞职。国际基金会仍然还在和内阁磋商：他们在7月10号举行了一次会议，主要议题是电力部门。但是基金会已经警告说，只有黎巴嫩同意一组数字，或者内阁推出一些有意义的改革以示诚意，谈判才能才能够继续推进。但两种情况都没发生。前财政部长 Alain Bifani 说道：“这是在犯罪。”他也辞去了工作以示抗议。

Add to this, now, the devastation of the Lebanese capital. Damage at the port alone will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to fix. Among the buildings destroyed was Lebanon’s main grain silo, leaving the country with less than a month’s supply of wheat. Homeowners wonder how they will find the cash to pay for new glass or for aluminium window frames. Business owners, barely eking out a profit before the disaster, say they will call it quits rather than rebuild. The government pledged to investigate, and to find the culprits within five days—enough time to name a scapegoat, but not to conduct a serious inquiry.

现在，再加上黎巴嫩首都被破坏。仅港口一项的修复费用就高达数亿美元。在被摧毁的建筑中，包括黎巴嫩的主要粮仓，导致这个国家只剩下不到一个月的粮食供应。房主们不知道如何才能找到购买新玻璃和铝合金门框的钱。在灾难发生前就已经勉强度日的企业主说，他们宁愿放弃也不愿重建。政府承诺进行调查，并在五天内找到罪犯——这足够找出一个替罪羊，而不是进行严肃的调查。

There is rage in the streets, but also resignation. Lebanon has endured much in its modern history: a civil war from 1975 to 1990, occupations by Israel and Syria, a ruinous war with Israel in 2006, and myriad other conflicts and attacks. The Lebanese prided themselves on their ability to pick themselves up and rebuild their society. This moment feels different. The economic model has failed; so too the powersharing system that kept the peace between the country’s religions after the civil war. As the country sinks, its venal political class seems oblivious. Gone is the optimism of October, when hundreds of thousands of Lebanese took to the streets to demand the overthrow of an entrenched regime. Now their thoughts are turning increasingly to emigration.

街头充满了愤怒和绝望。黎巴嫩在其近代历史中经历了很多苦难：1975-1990年的内战、以色列和叙利亚的占领、2006年以色列毁灭性的战争、以及其他无数次的冲突和袭击。黎巴嫩人民对自己重振信心和重建社会的能力感到自豪。但这次不一样。他们的经济模式已经失败，同样失败的还有他们内战后维持不同宗教平衡的权力系统。随着国家的衰败，其腐败的政治阶层似乎被遗忘了。当数万人涌上街头要求推翻一个根深蒂固的政权时，10月份的乐观情绪一去不复返。现在，他们的想法越来越转向移民。

本文译自经济学人，不代表本人观点，仅供学习交流，如有侵权，请联系删除。