2017-03-30 中国在挑战美国的全球领导地位吗？《经济学人
中国在挑战美国的全球领导地位吗？《经济学人》20170401 版权归原作者和杂志所有
背景介绍：美国过去几十年都是全球领导。可是美国的新总统明确反对全球化，只关注国内的事务，关起门来实现美利坚伟大复兴。老群主退群了，总有人要被推出来当新群主。看了这么多年西方报纸和杂志，发现《经济学人》这个英国报纸还是比较客观的。以前也会因为看到它批评国内的文章而生气，觉得是偏见。后来发现，它对事不对人，每个政府都被批评过，不管是英国，还是美国，还是德国等，也许就是媒体人的责任吧。同时对比一下其他的西方媒体对中国崛起的妖魔化描述，它对中国的描述真的是相对客观。这篇文章在西方媒体中算是比较难得的一篇文章。它能够对中国的“崛起”抑或是“被崛起”进行客观评价，而不是无理取闹地妖魔化。
经济学人原文翻译如下
版权声明：文章版权归原杂志和作者所有。翻译仅为英语学习之用。谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。
标题：中国在挑战美国的全球领导地位吗？
副标题：习谈到了“中国方案”，没有细说具体内容
作者：《经济学人》未特别指出
时间：2017年4月1日印刷版
AS DONALD TRUMP prepares to welcome Xi Jinping next week for the two men’s first face-to-face encounter, both countries are reassessing their place in the world. They are looking in opposite directions: America away from shouldering global responsibilities, China towards it. And they are reappraising their positions in very different ways. Hare-like, the Trump administration is dashing from one policy to the next, sometimes contradicting itself and willing to box any rival it sees. China, tortoise-like, is extending its head cautiously beyond its carapace, taking slow, painstaking steps. Aesop knew how this contest is likely to end.
翻译：下周川普和xdd将第一次见面，川普在准备欢迎xdd。这两个国家都在重新寻找自己在全球的位置。他们着眼于不同的方向：美国远离全球责任，中国朝那个方向走去。而且他们用非常不同的方式重新评估他们的位置。仿佛像野兔一样，川普政府从一个政策调到另外一个政策，有时候会自相矛盾，并攻击所见的任何对手。中国，却像乌龟一样，将头部谨慎地延伸到其甲壳之外，采取缓慢而艰苦的步骤。伊索寓言知道这个比赛有可能结束。
China’s guiding foreign-policy principle used to be Deng Xiaoping’s admonition in 1992 that the country should “keep a low profile, never take the lead…and make a difference.” This shifted a little in 2010 when officials started to say China should make a difference “actively”. It shifted further in January when Mr Xi went to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and told the assembled throng that China should “guide economic globalisation”. Diplomats in Beijing swap rumours that a first draft of Mr Xi’s speech focused on the domestic economy, an uncontroversial subject that Chinese leaders usually like to talk about abroad. Mr Xi is said to have rejected this version, and brought in foreign consultants to write one dwelling more on China’s view of the world. Whether this story is true or not, the speech was strikingly international in tone and subject matter.
翻译：中国的对外政策原则曾经是邓小平在1992年的劝告：国家应该“保持低调，永不带头，并有所作为”。2010年这个政策发生了一点点变化，当时官员开始说中国应该“积极地”有所作为。当xdd去瑞士的达沃斯世界经济论坛时，这个变化更近了一步。xdd告诉大家中国应该“引导经济全球化”。北京外交官传言xdd发言的第一稿草稿是重点介绍国内经济，这是中国领导人通常喜欢谈国外的无争议的话题。据说xdd拒绝了这个草稿，让外国专家写了更加注重中国对世界的看法的稿子。不论这个故事是否属实，这个演讲无论是语调还是内容都惊人的国际化。
A day later Mr Xi made it clear whom he had in his sights. At the UN in Geneva, he talked about a “hegemon imposing its will on others” and warned America about a “Thucydides trap”—the disaster that befell ancient Greece when the incumbent power, Sparta, failed to accommodate the rising one, Athens. In February Mr Xi told a conference on security in Beijing that China should “guide international society” towards a “more just and rational new world order”. Previously Mr Xi had ventured only that China should play a role in building such a world.
翻译：一天后，xdd让大家明白了自己的想法。在日内瓦联合国大会上，他谈到“霸权将其意志强加给别人”，警告美国溶解性陷阱：古希腊的灾难，当时的老大斯巴达，不能容纳上升一个的雅典。2月，xdd在北京的一个安全会议上谈到中国应该“引导国际社会”朝“更公正和合理的新世界秩序”方向发展。以前，xdd只冒昧地说，中国应该在建设这样的世界中发挥作用。
Your consensus is nonsense
There was a time when America was urging China to step up its global game. In 2005 Robert Zoellick, then America’s deputy secretary of state, urged China to become a “responsible stakeholder” in the international system. But nothing much happened. After the financial crisis of 2008 there was excited talk in China and the West about a “China model” or “Beijing consensus”. This was supposedly an alternative to the so-called Washington consensus, a prescription of free-market economic policies for developing countries. But those who promoted a China model did not say that it should be adopted by other countries, only that it was right to reject what they saw as a one-size-fits-all Washington consensus. Is there more to it this time? Is China challenging America for global leadership?
翻译：
你的共识是废话
有一段时间美国敦促中国加紧全球化的步伐。2005年，美国副国务卿罗伯特·佐利克敦促中国在国际体系中成为“负责任的利益相关者”。但是什么都没有发生。在2008年金融危机之后，中国和西方有过关于“中国模式”或“北京共识”这样的激动谈话。这应该是所谓的华盛顿共识（发展中国家经济政策描述）的替代。但是，那些主张中国模式的人并没有说这应该被其他国家所采纳的，只是说拒绝他们认为的一个一刀切的华盛顿共识是正确的。这次会有更多吗？中国是否挑战美国在全球领导地位？
To answer that, it is important to begin with the way China’s political system works. Policies rarely emerge fully formed in a presidential speech. Officials often prefer to send subtle signals about intended changes, in a way that gives the government room to retreat should the new approach fail. The signals are amplified by similar ones further down the system and fleshed out by controlled discussions in state-owned media. In the realm of foreign policy, all that is happening now.
翻译：要回答这个问题，必须得先看看中国的政治体系是如何运作的。主席演讲中的政策很少完全形成。官员们往往倾向于发出有意图的变化的微妙信号，如果新方法失败，则给予政府撤退的空间。信号由系统进一步扩大，并由国有媒体的受控讨论强化。在外交政策领域，这一切正在发生。
Soon after Mr Xi’s comments in Davos and Beijing, the prime minister, Li Keqiang, gave his annual “work report”—a sort of state-of-the-nation speech. It included an unusually long passage about foreign policy and mentioned quanqiu (meaning global) or quanqiuhua (globalisation) 13 times. That compares with only five such mentions last year (see chart).
翻译：xdd在达沃斯和北京发表言论后不久，中国总理lkq做了年度工作汇报（一种国家演讲）。在那个特别长的文章里，外交政策、全球、全球化被提及13次。去年这些词仅被提到5次。
As is their wont, state-run media have distilled the new thinking into numerical mnemonics. They refer enthusiastically to Mr Xi’s remarks on globalisation and a new world order as the “two guides”. And they have begun to discuss the makings of an idea that, unlike the old one of a China model, the country would like to sell to others. This is the so-called “China solution”. The phrase was first mentioned last July, on the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Mr Xi’s celebratory speech asserted that the Chinese people were “fully confident that they can provide a China solution to humanity’s search for better social institutions”. The term has gone viral. Baidu, China’s most popular search engine, counts 22m usages of its Chinese rendering: Zhongguo fang’an.
翻译：国营媒体也一样，将新思维转化为数字助记符。他们积极参与了xdd对全球化和新世界秩序的评论，成为“两个指导”。他们已经开始讨论一个想法，即与中国的旧模式不同，这个国家想告诉世人的想法。这个叫做“中国方案”。这个词最初被提到是在去年7月份，中共成立95周年纪念会上。xdd庆祝演讲中声称，中国人民“完全有信心他们能够为人类寻求更好的社会机构提供中国方案”。这个词走红了。百度，中国最受欢迎的搜索引擎，统计到“中国方案”被搜索了2.2千万次。
No one has defined what the China solution is. But, whatever it means, there is one for everything. Strengthening global government? There is a China solution to that, said the People’s Daily, the party’s main mouthpiece, in mid-March. Climate change? “The next step is for us to bring China’s own solution,” said Xie Zhenhua, the government’s special climate envoy, in another newspaper, Southern Metropolis. There is even a China solution to the problem of bolstering the rule of law, claimed an article in January in Study Times, a weekly for officials. Multi-billion-dollar investments in infrastructure in Central Asia are China’s solution to poverty and instability there. And so on. Unlike the China model, which its boosters said was aimed at developing countries, the China solution, says David Kelly of China Policy, a consultancy, is for everyone—including Western countries.
翻译：没有人定义中国方案究竟是什么。但是，不管它是什么，有一件事情可以确定。加强全球政府？中国有解决之道，党的主要喉舌“人民日报”在三月中旬说道。气候变化？“我们的下一步是提出中国自己的方案”政府的特别气候特使谢振华在“南方都市报”说道。甚至还有对加强法制问题的中国方案，“研究时报”（官员的周刊）在一月份发表的一篇文章说道。中亚在基础设施方面投资十亿美元是中国解决贫困和不稳定的办法。还有其他如此的。中国模式的目标是发展中国家。和中国模式不一样，中国政策咨询公司的大卫·凯利（David Kelly）表示，中国方案包括西方国家在内的所有人。
This marks a change. Chinese leaders never praised the China model; its fans were mainly Chinese academics and the country’s cheerleaders in the West. (Long before the term became fashionable, Deng advised the president of Ghana: “Do not follow the China model.”) Most officials were wary of it because the term could be interpreted as China laying down the law to others, contradicting its policy of not interfering in other countries’ internal affairs. In contrast, it was Mr Xi himself who broached the idea of the China solution. His prime minister included it in his work report. China now seems more relaxed about bossing others around.
翻译：这标志着一个改变。中国领导从未表扬中国模式。它主要是在中国学者和在西方国家的宣传人员中受欢迎。（在这个词成为潮流之前，邓小平曾经建议加纳主席“不要跟随中国模式”）。大多数官员对此表示警惕，因为这个词可以解释为中国向别人奠定了法律，违反了不干涉别国内政的政策。相反，正是xdd自己提出了中国方案的想法。他的总理包括在他的工作报告中。中国现在似乎更为轻松地围绕着别人。
This reflects not only the determination of the leadership to play a bigger role, but a growing confidence that China can do it. China’s self-assurance has been bolstered by what it sees as recent foreign-policy successes. Last year an international tribunal ruled against China’s claims to sovereignty in much of the South China Sea. But China promptly persuaded the Philippines, which had brought the case, implicitly to disavow its legal victory, eschew its once-close ties with America and sign a deal accepting vast quantities of Chinese investment. Soon after that Malaysia, another hitherto America-leaning country with maritime claims overlapping those of China, came to a similar arrangement. China’s leaders concluded that, despite the tribunal’s ruling, 2016 had been a good year for them in the South China Sea.
翻译：这不仅反映了领导人想发挥更大作用的决心，也反映了增加的信心：中国能行。中国的自我保证受到近期外交政策成就的支撑。去年，一个国际法庭裁定反对中国在南海大部分地区的主权主张。但是，中国迅速劝说提起案件的菲律宾暗示不合法的胜利，回避与美国曾经亲密的关系，并签署接受大量中国投资的协议。不久之后，马来西亚又有一个海事索赔，与中国重叠的美国倾向国家也出现了类似的安排。中国领导人认为，尽管法庭的裁决，2016年在南海是一个美好的一年。
It was certainly a notable one for Mr Xi’s most ambitious foreign policy, called the “Belt and Road Initiative”. The scheme involves infrastructure investment along the old Silk Road between China and Europe. The value of contracts signed under the scheme came within a whisker of $1trn last year—not bad for something that only started in 2013. Chinese exports to the 60-odd Belt and Road countries overtook those to America and the European Union. In May Mr Xi is due to convene a grand summit of the countries to celebrate and advertise a project that could one day rival transatlantic trade in importance.
翻译：对于xdd最雄心勃勃的外交政策，有一个让人不得不注意，它叫“一带一路”。
该计划涉及沿中国与欧洲之间旧丝绸之路的基建投资。根据该计划签订的合同，去年其价值在1万亿美元之内，对于仅在2013年开始的事情来说还不错。中国出口到六十多个丝绸之路国家，超过了美国和欧盟。5月份，xdd将召开国家首脑会议，庆祝和宣传可能有一天能够超越大西洋贸易的竞争对手。
But talk of “guiding globalisation” and a “China solution” does not mean China is turning its back on the existing global order or challenging American leadership of it across the board. China is a revisionist power, wanting to expand influence within the system. It is neither a revolutionary power bent on overthrowing things, nor a usurper, intent on grabbing global control.
翻译：但是，“引导全球化”和“中国方案”的谈话并不意味着中国正在回归现有的全球秩序或挑战美国在全球的领导地位。中国是一个修正主义的力量，希望在系统内扩大影响力。既不是推翻事物的革命性力量，也不是意图抓住全球控制的篡夺者。
China is the third-largest donor to the UN’s budget after America and Japan (see chart) and is the second-largest contributor, after America, to the UN’s peacekeeping. Last year China chaired a summit of the Group of 20 largest economies—it has an above-average record of complying with the G20’s decisions. Recently it has stepped up its multilateral commitments. In 2015 it secured the adoption of the yuan as one of the IMF’s five reserve currencies. It has set up two financial institutions, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, which are modelled on traditional ones such as the World Bank. Global rules on trade and finance, it seems, are too important for Mr Xi not to defend.
翻译：中国是美国和日本之后联合国预算的第三大捐助者，是仅次美国的联合国维和行动第二大捐助国。去年，中国主持了20个最大经济体集团的首脑会议 - 它符合二十国集团决定的平均纪录。最近加强了多边承诺。2015年，人民币被通过成为国际货币基金组织的五种储备货币之一。设立了两个以世界银行为传统模式的金融机构，亚洲基础设施投资银行和新开发银行。贸易和金融的全球规则，似乎对于xdd来说太重要了。
China is becoming a more active participant in the UN, but it is not trying to dominate it. It reacts to, rather than initiates, sanctions policy towards North Korea. And despite its own extensive anti-terrorist operations at home, it shows little interest in joining, let alone leading, operations against Islamic State.
翻译： 中国正在成为联合国更加积极的参与者，但是又不试图去统治它。它对朝鲜作出反应而不是启动制裁政策。尽管在国内也有广泛的反恐行动，但对于反对伊斯兰国家的行动，不要说领导，它似乎连加入的兴趣都没有。
There are domestic constraints on Mr Xi’s ambitions. China’s vast bureaucracy is resistant to change in foreign policy, as in everything else. During a recent trip to Australia the foreign minister, Wang Yi, said China had “no intention of leading anybody”. He was not contradicting Mr Xi, but neither was he echoing the president’s desire to guide a new world order. Ding Yifang of the Institute of World Development, a think-tank in Beijing, is similarly cautious about the China solution. “We don’t have universal ideals,” he says. “We are not that ambitious.”
翻译：国内存在对xdd野心的限制。中国庞大的官僚体系反对外交政策的改变，就像反对其他事情的改变一样。在最近访问澳大利亚期间，外交部长王毅表示，中国“无意领导任何人”。他不是在反驳xdd，但是他也不赞同xdd指导新世界秩序的愿望。北京智囊团世界发展研究所的丁一芳对中国的解决方案也很谨慎。“我们没有普遍的理想，”他说， “我们不是那么雄心勃勃。”
Globalism with Chinese characteristics
So what might China’s unassuming new assertiveness mean in practice? A template can be found in climate-change policy. China was one of the main obstacles to a global climate agreement in 2008, but now its words are the lingua franca of climate-related diplomacy. Parts of a deal on carbon emissions between Mr Xi and Barack Obama were incorporated wholesale into the Paris climate treaty of 2016. China helped determine how that accord defines what are known as “common and differentiated responsibilities”, namely how much each country should be responsible for cutting emissions.
翻译：
具有中国特色的全球主义
那么中国谦逊的新自信在实践中意味着什么呢？可以在气候变化政策中找到模式。中国是2008年全球气候协议的主要障碍之一，但现在它的言论是与气候有关的外交通用语言。xdd与奥巴马之间的二氧化碳排放交易部分合并，组成了2016年巴黎气候条约。中国帮助确定了这一协定如何界定所谓的“共同和差别责任”，即每个国家应该对减排造成多少负责。
As chairman of the G20 last year, Mr Xi made the fight against climate change a priority for the group. But China’s clout at that time was bolstered by its accord with America. Now Mr Trump is beginning to dismantle his predecessor’s climate policies. Li Shou of Greenpeace says China is therefore preparing to go it alone as Mr Xie, the climate envoy, said in January that it was prepared to do. It may be that a “China solution” to climate change will be the first practical application of the term.
翻译：作为去年二十国集团主席，xdd把气候变化作为集团的优先事项。但是当时中国的影响力是与美国达成的一致。现在川普开始拆解他前任的气候政策。绿色和平组织的李守表示，中国正在准备独自一人去做，气候特使谢先生在1月份表示。“中国方案”在气候变化上的应用，可能将是该术语的第一个实际应用。
Soon after Mr Xi’s speech in Davos, Zhang Jun, a senior Foreign Ministry official, put his finger on China’s changing place in the world. “I would say it is not China rushing to the front,” he told a newspaper in Hong Kong, “but rather the front-runners have stepped back, leaving the place to China.” But officials have far fewer qualms than Deng did about being at the front. “If China is required to play a leadership role,” says Mr Zhang, “it will assume its responsibilities.”
翻译：xdd在达沃斯发表演讲后不久，外交部高级官员张军谈到中国在世界变化中的地位。“我会说不是中国向前冲，“他在香港的一家报纸上说，”而且前锋已经退了回去，把地留给了中国。” 但是，关于前线，官员们比邓进步了很多。张先生说：“如果中国被要求发挥领导作用，它将会承担起责任。”
版权声明：文章版权归原杂志和作者所有。翻译仅为英语学习之用。谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。
读后感：
- dd摊摊手，群主要退群，我有什么办法。
- 明天就是习特会了，美国媒体只担心他们总统的手听话不听话。他们知道要是像和安倍握手那样对dd，后果很严重。他们也不愿意再看到无视天使默尔克握手要求那样的尴尬场景。
- 其实，中美双方真的是共识大于分歧。一个不想当群主，一个要当群主也可以。完全就是partner嘛。而且两个都要make自己国家great again，实现自己国家的伟大复兴。
- 赶在dd和川普见面之后完成这篇文章的学习，因为见面后肯定有很多劲爆文章要追。
2017.04.05.
NJ
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