巴菲特1980年度信（十五）。2025-03-31

英文早读第249篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。

It might strike some as strange that an insurance company's survival is threatened when its stock portfolio falls sufficiently in price to reduce net worth significantly, but that an even greater decline in bond prices produces no reaction at all. The industry would respond by pointing out that, no matter what the current price, the bonds will be paid in full at maturity, thereby eventually eliminating any interim price decline. It may take twenty, thirty, or even forty years, this argument says, but, as long as the bonds don't have to be sold, in the end they'll all be worth face value. Of course, if they are sold even if they are replaced with similar bonds offering better relative value - the loss must be booked immediately. And, just as promptly, published net worth must be adjusted downward by the amount of the loss.
对于一些人来说，可能会觉得很奇怪：当一家保险公司的股票投资组合价格大幅下跌，致使其净资产大幅缩水时，公司的生存就会受到威胁；然而，债券价格出现更大幅度的下跌时，却根本不会引发任何反应。保险行业对此的回应会是：无论当前债券价格如何，这些债券在到期时都会得到全额偿付，从而最终消除任何期间内的价格下跌影响。这种观点认为，也许这会耗时二十年、三十年，甚至四十年，但只要这些债券不必出售，最终它们的价值都会等同于票面价值。当然，如果这些债券被出售了——即便它们被换成了具有更好相对价值的类似债券——损失也必须立即入账。而且，公布的净资产也必须即刻按照损失的金额向下调整。

Under such circumstances, a great many investment options disappear, perhaps for decades. For example, when large underwriting losses are in prospect, it may make excellent business logic for some insurers to shift from tax-exempt bonds into taxable bonds. Unwillingness to recognize major bond losses may be the sole factor that prevents such a sensible move.
在这样的情况下，很多投资选择就消失了，而且这种情况可能会持续数十年。例如，当预期会出现巨额承保损失时，对一些保险公司而言，从免税债券转向应税债券在商业逻辑上可能是非常明智的做法。而不愿意确认债券的重大损失，很可能是阻碍他们做出这种明智决策的唯一因素。

But the full implications flowing from massive unrealized bond losses are far more serious than just the immobilization of investment intellect. For the source of funds to purchase and hold those bonds is a pool of money derived from policyholders and claimants (with changing faces) - money which, in effect, is temporarily on deposit with the insurer. As long as this pool retains its size, no bonds must be sold. If the pool of funds shrinks - which it will if the volume of business declines significantly - assests must be sold to pay off the liabilities. And if those assets consist of bonds with big unrealized losses, such losses will rapidly become realized, decimating net worth in the process.
但是，巨额未实现债券损失所带来的全面影响，远比仅仅使投资思路僵化要严重得多。因为用于购买和持有这些债券的资金来源，是来自投保人以及索赔者（人员在不断变动）的资金池——实际上，这些钱是暂时存放在保险公司的。只要这个资金池的规模保持不变，就无需出售债券。但如果资金池的规模缩小了——要是业务量大幅下降，资金池的规模就会缩小——那就必须出售资产来偿还债务。而如果这些资产是由存在巨额未实现损失的债券构成的，那么这些损失就会迅速变成已实现的损失，在此过程中会大幅削减公司的净资产。

86.strike：罢工
87.implication：可能的影响；含义；牵扯
88.immobilization：固定化；固定
89.policyholder：保险人；保险客户
90.claimant：索赔人；要求者
91.decimate：大量毁灭；严重破坏