Shutdown, shut down 19.02.15econ

The federal government will remain open, thanks to the art of the retreat

多亏了让步的艺术，联邦政府可以继续开门营业了。

“Deals are my art form,” President Donald Trump once wrote. “I like making deals, preferably big deals. That’s how I get my kicks.” They are also how he gets kicked. As The Economist went to press, Mr Trump appeared poised to sign a spending bill that averted another government shutdown, but at further cost to his reputation as an ace negotiator.

“交易就是我的艺术，”总统唐纳德·特朗普曾经写道，“我喜欢做交易，特别是大交易。这就是我娱乐的方式。”这也恰恰是他被娱乐的方式。当经济学人准备出版的时候，特朗普似乎正在准备签一个避免政府又一次关门的支出方案，但更多地这对于他的声誉上是一个谈判的杀手锏。

Late last year Mr Trump initiated the longest government shutdown in recent history because Congress would not approve the $5.7bn requested for his border wall. After watching his approval ratings drop a few points, he agreed on January 25th to reopen the government for three weeks—without funding for his wall—to give a bipartisan group of lawmakers time to hammer out a compromise on border security spending. Both sides, being familiar with the president’s earlier writings, staked out maximalist positions. 

去年年底特朗普引起了近期最长的政府关门，因为国会不同意通过建造他的边境墙所需的57亿美元的预算。看到自己的满意度又下降了几点，特朗普在1月25日同意在不为边境墙借款的情况下，重开政府三周，来给立法者两党对边境安全支出做出折中解决方案的时间。两党在很熟悉总统之前方案的情况下，都摆出了多数派的姿态。

Mr Trump insisted on his $5.7bn. Democrats wanted to cap the number of beds available for undocumented immigrants arrested within the United States (as opposed to while crossing the border) at around 16,000 per day—well below both current levels and what the administration wanted. The number of beds matters because of a “bed mandate” that requires America’s immigration police to fill all the beds in immigration detention centres that have been paid for by Congress. The pool of people who are eligible for deportation from America under this administration is far greater than the number of people these places can warehouse, so the more beds there are, the more can be detained for deportation later.

特朗普仍然坚持57亿美元的方案。民主党人想要将为美国境内逮捕的非法移民保留的床位数量限制在每天大约16000张，既低于目前的水准也低于政府预想的水准。床位的数量比较重要因为美国移民警察需要填满所有由国会付费的拘留中心的床位。在这项政策下需要被驱逐出美国的人数远远多于这些中心可以容纳的人数，所以如果有越多的床位，就有更多的人可以之后被驱逐出去。

 The agreement provides funding for more than twice as many beds as Democrats wanted. But it includes around $1.3bn for new physical fencing along the southern border—not just less than Mr Trump demanded, but less than then $1.6bn Democrats offered him just before the shutdown. Mr Trump initially grumbled that he was “not happy” about the deal. Sean Hannity, a Fox News personality who is among Mr Trump’s strongest backers, called it “a garbage compromise”, while Mark Meadows, who chairs the hard right House Freedom Caucus, said he could not imagine Mr Trump “applauding something so lacking.”

这份协定提供了比民主党预想的多了两倍的预算。但它包括对南部边境新围墙约13亿美元的部分，不仅仅比特朗普要求的少，甚至比民主党在关门之前给特朗普约定的16亿还要少。特朗普开始抱怨他对于这个协定“不满意”。Sean Hannity ,作为特朗普在福克斯新闻中最强大的支持者，将这份协议称为“垃圾承诺”，然而Mark  Meadows， 最强硬的右翼自由党团中的领导者，说他不能想象特朗普会赞成如此缺心眼的事情。

A few days later the spin had changed. Laura Ingraham, a Hannity-ish pundit, spun the modest amount of wall funding as a victory, because Nancy Pelosi, the House majority leader had initially said she would not give Mr Trump a single dollar for his wall. Mr Trump tweeted that the funding provided by Congress “will be hooked up with lots of money from other sources …Will be getting almost $23 billion…Regardless of Wall money, it is being built as we speak!” What those other sources might be, or where the figure of $23bn comes from, is a mystery.

几天后形势变了。Laura Ingraham, Hannity的评论员,将这小额的边境墙资金承诺视为一场胜利，因为白宫多数党的领导Nancy Pelosi曾经说她不会给特朗普一分钱用来建墙。特朗普发推特说“国会提供的资金会与从其他途径得到的资金放在一起......将会有大约239亿美金.....无论有没有钱，我们现在说话的时候墙就已经正在建设当中！” 其他来源或者230亿数字的来源是哪里，这仍是个谜团。

The president could yet declare a national emergency at the border and direct Pentagon funds to wall-building. But the White House would almost certainly be sued, and anyway many conservatives quail at the prospect. After all, what would stop a future Democratic president from doing the same thing and filling Texas with solar panels? And if the wall is, according to Mr Trump, already being built, then why declare an emergency? Still, if the deal allows Mr Trump to claim victory, while continuing to thump Democrats on immigration, that may be optimal for him.

然而总统还可以宣布全国紧急状态，并将五角大楼的钱用到建墙上。但这样做的话白宫肯定会被起诉，很多保守党都对这个预想感到害怕。毕竟，还有什么能阻止一个未来的民主党总统做同样的事情，将德克萨斯铺满太阳板呢？并且如果像特朗普说的墙已经建成，那么为什么要宣布全国紧急状态？如果特朗普能够在这个交易中获得胜利，继续打击民主党的移民问题，那这可能对特朗普是最好的选择了。

TIPS:斜体是我翻译的觉得有问题的地方， 粗体是生词，欢迎大家指正！