【甘比精读】0411 Amazon 02

Topic 1Amazon’s Empire

The formerbookselleraccounts formore than half ofevery new dollar spent on line in U.S.

每在网上花一美元，其中就有超过一半是来自亚马逊网站

Since thebeginning of 2015, its share pricehas jumped by173%,seven times quicker thanin the two previousyears.(and12times

fasterthanthe S&P 500 Index)

从2015年起，亚马逊的股票增幅达173%，比前两年多七倍（比S&P指数快12倍）

With a market capitalization ofsome 400bn, it isthe fifth most valuable firmin the world.

亚马逊因其市场资本金高达4000亿，一跃成为世界上最具价值的第五个公司

Never before hasa companybeen

worth so much for so long while making so little money:92%

of its valueis due toprofits expected

after 2020.

从来没有一个公司可以不怎么赚钱，却维持其价值不变：92%的价值预计来自自2020年之后的

Walmartalready has revenuesnudging500bn andis beefing uponline.

沃尔玛的利润即将突破5000亿大关，这一趋势在互联网的作用下不断加强

Last

year cash-flow (before investment) was $16bn, more thanquadruple the level five

years ago.

去年资本流（投资前）为160亿美元，比五年前翻了4倍

If itmakes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests itsearningscould be worth the equivalent of25%ofthecombined

profitsoflisted Western retail andmedia firms.

如果亚马逊能带给投资商们预期的收益，那将相当于是西方零售商和媒体公司总利润的25%

Ground for skepticism does not come much more fertile than

this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern

history tojustify its valuation.

In an erawhen executives routinelywhinge aboutpressureto produce short-term results, Amazon isresolutely

focused onthedistant horizon.

在这个时代里，当一些人还在为实现短期目标还倍感压力时，亚马逊已经开始着眼于未来。

Mr.Bezos emphasizes continual investment topropel its two principal businesses.

贝欧斯先生强调，要持续不断地投资，以确保两个主要项目的顺利进行。

A thirdvirtuous circle is starting to whirl aroundAlexa,the firm’s voice-activated assistant:

第三个投资良性循环开始在亚马逊语音助手亚历山大上显现出来。

So long as shareholdersretain

their faith inthis model, Amazon’sheady valuationresembles

aself-fulfilling prophecy.

只要投资商对这个模式存有信心，亚马逊就能带来丰富的收益

Theirfaith is sustained byAmazon’s record.

亚马逊良好的运营历史让投资者们信心倍增

It

has had its failures—its attempt to make a smart-phone was adebacle.But the business isstarting to crank out cash.

亚马逊也曾失败过——它曾想开发智能手机，结果以失败告终。但这并不影响亚马逊成为最赚钱的公司

IfAmazon’sapproach totime-frames is unusual,so too isthe sheerbreadth

of its activities.

Awingspan this largeis morereminiscent ofa conglomerate than a retailer,which makes Amazon’sshare price seem even more

bloated: stock markets typically apply a“conglomerate

discount”to reflect their in- efficiencies.

Seenthrough thislens, Amazon appearspristine.

从这一角度来看，亚马逊还是富有活力的

Consumersapplaudit; it isthe most well-regarded companyin America,according to a Harris poll.

顾客们很喜欢亚马逊，根据哈瑞斯民意调查结果显示，亚马逊是美国最受欢迎的公司

If itgets anywhere close tofulfilling them, it willattract the attention of regulators.

如果公司太赚钱，那么监管部门就会开始关注

Butasit grows,so willconcerns about its power.

但随着亚马逊的不断壮大，人们对它的担忧也越来越多

Investorsvalue Amazon’s growth over pro-fits;that makespredatory pricingmore tempting.

比起蝇头小利，投资商们更关注亚马逊的成长，后者才能让暴利更加吸引