巴菲特1969年十月信（四）。2024-12-11

英文早读第148篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。

In recommending Bill, I am engaging in the sort of activity I have tried to avoid in BPL portfolio activities - a decision where there is nothing to gain (personally) and considerable to lose. Some of my friends who are not in the Partnership have suggested that I make no recommendation since, if results were excellent it would do me no good and, if something went wrong, I might well get a portion of the blame. If you and I had just had a normal commercial relationship, such reasoning might be sound. However, the degree of trust partners have extended to me and the cooperation manifested in various ways precludes such a "hands off" policy. Many of you are professional investors or close thereto and need no advice from me on managers - you may well do better yourself. For those partners who are financially inexperienced, I feel it would be totally unfair for me to assume a passive position and deliver you to the most persuasive salesman who happened to contact you early in 1970.
关于推荐比尔，我陷入了在巴菲特合伙基金投资时我尽量避免的一类动作——一个决定没有任何好处（就我个人而言）但是却可能有损失。一些不在合伙基金中的我朋友建议说我应该不做推荐，因为如果结果好对我没好处，如果结果错了，我会受到某种指责。如果你和我仅仅是正常的商业关系，这个理由或许有道理。然而，合伙人对我和合作扩大的信任度在各个维度都阻止了这样的“散手不管”政策。你们中有些人是专业投资者或接近专业的，不需要从我这里获取管理人的建议——你们自己操作或许做的更好。对那些没有理财经验的合伙人，我感觉让我假设处于消极位置并把你们推向恰好在1970年初联系你们的煽动人心的销售那里是很不公平的。

Finally, a word about expectations. A decade or so ago was quite willing to set a target of ten percentage points per annum better than the Dow, with the expectation that the Dow would average about 7%. This meant an expectancy for us of around 17%, with wide variations and no guarantees, of course - but, nevertheless, an expectancy. Tax-free bonds at the time yielded about 3%. While stocks had the disadvantage of irregular performance, overall they seemed much the more desirable option. I also stressed this preference for stocks in teaching classes, participating in panel discussions, etc...
最后，讲一下预期。大约十年前很希望设置一个每年优于道琼斯指数10个百分点的目标，包括预期道琼斯指数可以平均大约在7%。这意味着我们的预期是大约17%，包括较大的波动和然而，当然作为预期的不承诺。免税债券在那时收益大约3%。尽管股票有不稳定表现的弊端，整体来说他们仍是更好的选择。现在我也在授课时、参加小组讨论时等等场合强调这种对股票的喜好。

For the first time in my investment lifetime, I now believe there is little choice for the average investor between professionally managed money in stocks and passive investment in bonds. If correct, this view has important implications. Let me briefly (and in somewhat oversimplified form) set out the situation as I see it:
在我投资生涯第一次，我现在相信有些许对于大多数投资者在介于专业股票资金管理和被动债券投资之间的选择。如果是对的，这个观点有很大影响。让我简单的（某种程度过于简单的形式）讲下我看到的情况：

(1) I am talking about the situation for, say, a taxpayer in a 40% Federal Income Tax bracket who also has some State Income Tax to pay. Various changes are being proposed in the tax laws, which may adversely affect net results from presently tax-exempt income, capital gains, and perhaps other types of investment income. More proposals will probably come in the future. Overall, I feel such changes over the years will not negate my relative expectations about after-tax income from presently tax-free bonds versus common stocks, and may well even mildly reinforce them.
（1）我讨论的这个情况是对于纳税人处于联邦个人所得税40%档有些也包括一些州个人所得税要付的人。不同税法的修改正在被提出，或许对从当前免税收入、资本利得和或许其他类型投资收益获得的净收入有负面影响。更多提案或许在未来更多。总的来说，我觉得经过一些年之后这些改变也不会否定我对现在免税债券相比于一般股票的预期，或许甚至轻微会加强他们。

(2) I am talking about expectations over the next ten years - not the next weeks or months. I find it much easier to think about what should develop over a relatively long period of time than what is likely in any short period. As Ben Graham said:" In the long run, the market is a weighing machine - in the short run, a voting machine." I have always found it easier to evaluate weights dictated by fundamentals than votes dictated by psychology.
（2）我在讨论的是接下来10年的预期——不是接下来几个礼拜或者几个月。我发现思考经过相对长一段时间的发展比任何短期的可能都容易的多。正如本格雷厄姆说的：“长期来看，市场是称重机——短期来看，是投票机”。我经常发现从常识上来称重比从心理上来投票更容易。

18.extend：延伸；扩展；提供；扩大
19.manifest：表明；显现；显示
20.preclude：排除；妨碍；阻止
21.hands off：放手；住手
22.thereto：随之；附之
23.assume：假定；假设；承担；认为；取得
24.yield：产量；产出；利润
25.panel discussion：小组讨论；小组座谈
26.oversimplified：过于简单化的
27.proposed：建议的；提出的；推荐的
28.bracket：（价格、年龄、收入等）的等级；支架；括号
29.adversely：不利地；反而
30.exempt：豁免；免除
31.negate：否定；否认；取消
32.reinforce：加强；加固；充实