Cynefin框架与疫情处境

Cynefin框架最早是在1999年由学者Dave Snowden所提出的。 这个框架用于描述问题,环境与系统,说明什么环境,适合使用什么解决方案。

Cynefin 定义了四个阶段: 简单(Simple), 繁杂(Complicated), 复杂(Complex), 混乱(Chaotic)。 其定义分别如下：

A. 简单(Simple)

    因果关系十分明显 ,每个人都能要用最佳实务(Best Practice) 去解决问题.

    感受 —> 归类 —> 反应(Sense-Categorise-Respond）

B. 繁杂(Complicated)

    因果关系需要透过分析和调查来处理 ,需要应用现有专门知识和技能 ,有些好的实务(Good Practice) 可以帮忙

    感受 —> 分析—> 反应 Sense-Analyze-Respond）

C. 复杂(Complex)

    因果关系在事后才明朗 ,需要新作法,很难控制和计画.与其产生复杂的解决方案,倒不如制定简单的规则.所以他需要一些涌现的实务(Emergent Practice)

    试探—> 感受—> 反应(Probe-Sense-Respond）

D. 混乱(Chaotic)

    因果关系之间没有关系 .为了生存,必须要去采取行动,想办法把状况拉到复杂的阶段.这里需要一些新颖的实务(Novel Practice)

    行动—> 感受—> 反应(Act-Sense-Respond）

Cynefin Framework

If we use this framework to help make sense of where we are at, I think (my personal view, pick it to pieces!) is we are in between the Chaotic and Complicated domains. We don’t quite now how the virus works and changes over time however we do have knowledge of how to halt and manage these sorts of things (ie SARS) and also any impacts like a recession (ie GFC).

So we have a combination of ‘novel practice’ going on - simply act, sense and respond along with emergent practice - probe, sense and respond. The point is it’s extremely stressful in these two quadrants and there is much uncertainty. Over time as we gain more knowledge we will move, but right now we are there.

Just a thought.