翻译|避免无知

这是[在不确定下做决定]系列的最后一篇文章。

目录：

1.用提高自我意识避免无知

2.《罪与罚》里主人公的无知

3.背景知识

4.思考

This is a continuation oftwo types of ignorance.

本篇是两种无知的续文。

一.用提高自我意识避免无知

You can't deal with ignorance if you can't recognize its presence. If you're suffering from primary ignorance it means you probably failed to consider the possibility of being ignorant or you found ways not to see that you were ignorant.

如果你不能发现无知的存在，那么你就不能处理无知。如果你正在遭受无知，那就意味着你可能考虑不到你正处于无知的状态或找不到方法看到你是无知的。

You're ignorant and unaware, which is worse than being ignorant and aware.

你无知且无意识的状态比无知但知道的状态糟糕多了。

The best way to avoid this, suggests Joy and Zeckhauser, is to raise self-awareness.

根据Joy和Zeckhauser，最好的避免这种状态的方法是提高自我意识。

Ask yourself regularly: “Might I be in a state of consequential ignorance here?”

习以为常地问自己：“我正处于一种间接的无知吗？“

They continue:

他们继续：

If the answer is yes, the next step should be to estimate base rates. That should also be the next step if the starting point is recognized ignorance.

如果答案是肯定的，接下来应该估计基本比率。如果起点是可知的无知的，那也应该是它的下一步。

Of all situations such as this, how often has a particular outcome happened. Of course, this is often totally subjective.

像这样的所有情况，特定的结果多久发生一次。当然，这常是十分主观的。

and its underpinnings are elusive. It is hard to know what the sample of relevant past experiences has been, how to draw inferences from the experience of others, etc. Nevertheless, it is far better to proceed to an answer, however tenuous, than to simply miss (primary ignorance) or slight (recognized ignorance) the issue. Unfortunately, the assessment of base rates is challenging and substantial biases are likely to enter.

它的基础是难懂的。很难知道过去相关的经验是什么样的，如何参考别人的经验，等等。然而，无论多么不确定，开始一个大难总比不知（基本的无知）或轻视（可识别的无知）问题好太多了。不幸地是：评价基本比率是富有挑战的，许多很可能乘虚而入。

When we don't recognize ignorance the base rate is extremely underestimated. When we do recognize ignorance, we face “duelling biases; some will lead to underestimates of base rates and others to overestimates.”

当我们识别不出无知，基本比率是被大大低估的。当我们识别出无知时，我们面临“决斗的偏见，一些人会低估基本比率，其他人会高估基本比率。”

Three biases come into play while estimating base rates: overconfidence, salience, and selection biases.

当我们估计基本比率时，三种偏差会出来搅局：过度自信，突出性和选择偏差。

So we are overconfident in our estimates. We estimate things that are salient – that is, “states with which (we) have some experience or that are otherwise easily brought to mind.” And “there is a strong selection bias to recall or retell events that were surprising or of great consequence.”

所以我们对于估计过分自信。我们估计突出的事情---那就是，“那些我们有经验或者很容易想到的描述。”和“强烈的选择偏差去回忆或复述那些令人惊讶或者重大影响的事件。”

Our key lesson is that as individuals proceed through life, they should always be on the lookout for ignorance.When they do recognize it, they should try to assess how likely they are to be surprised—in other words, attempt to compute the base rate. In discussing this assessment, we might also employ the term “catchall” from statistics, to cover the outcomes not specifically addressed.

当个人继续生活时，我们能给出的重要经验是，他们应该时刻监视无知。当他们是识别出无知时，应该评价他们被惊讶的程度----换句话说，尝试计算基础比率。在讨论这个估计时，我们也要运用统计的术语，覆盖那些不被强调的结果。

二.《罪与罚》里主人公的无知

It's incredibly interesting to view literature through the lens of human decision making.

通过人类决策的透镜来欣赏文学是非常有趣的。

Crime and Punishmentis particularly interesting as a study of primary ignorance. Raskolnikov deploys his impressive intelligence to plan the murder, believing, in his ignorance, that he has left nothing to chance. In a series of descriptions not for the squeamish or the faint-hearted, the murderer’s thoughts are laid bare as he plans the deed. We read about his skills in strategic inference and his powers of prediction about where and how he will corner his victim; his tactics at developing complementary skills (what is the precise manner in which he will carry the axe?; what strategies will help him avoid detection) are revealed.

《罪与罚》作为研究无知是相当有意思的。拉斯科利尼夫运用它令人印象深刻的智力计划谋杀，相信他的无知，它没有任何东西拿来冒险。在一系列不是为了怜悯或懦弱的描述中，谋杀者的想法在他做计划时被揭发了。我们读到了他做策略推理的技能及预测在哪里及如何困住受害者的能力；他的发展补充能力的策略（携带斧子精确的方式是什么？什么策略帮助他逃避侦查）被揭示了。

But since Raskolnikov is making decisions under primary ignorance, his determined rationality is tightly “bounded.” He “construct[s] a simplified model of the real situation in order to deal with it; … behaves rationally with respect to this model, [but] such behavior is not even approximately optimal with respect to the real world” (Simon 1957). The second-guessing, fear, and delirium at the heart of Raskolnikov’s thinking as he struggles to gain a foothold in his inner world show the impact of a cascade of Consequential Amazing Development's (CAD), none predicted, none even contemplated. Raskolnikov anticipated an outcome in which he would dispatch the pawnbroker and slip quietly out of her apartment. He could not have possibly predicted that her sister would show up, a characteristic CAD that challenges what Taleb (2012) calls our “illusion of predictability.”

但当拉斯科利尼夫在基本的无知下做决策时，他的充满决心的理性注定是有界限的。他“为了处理它，建立了一个真实环境的简化模型，遵从那个模型下理性行动，但是这样的行动在尊重真实的世界前不是最佳的。”（Simon 1957）。当针扎着他获得内心世界的立足点时，第二猜测，恐惧和狂喜展示了大量的CAD（相应惊人发展）的影响，没人预测，也没人想过。拉斯科利尼夫预测一个结果，他能杀死典当商并悄悄离开她的公寓。但他却不能预测她的妹妹会出现，一个特征性的CAD挑战了塔利布称为的“预测幻觉”。

Joy and Zeckhauser argue we can draw two conclusions.

Joy和Zeckhauser认为我们可以得出两个结论。

First, we tend to downplay the role of unanticipated events, preferring instead to expect simple causal relationships and linear developments. Second, when we do encounter a CAD, we often counter with knee-jerk, impulsive decisions, the equivalent of Raskolnikov committing a second impetuous murder.

首先，我们趋向于低估无法预测事件的作用，更喜欢期待简单随机的关系和线性的发展。其次，当我们遭遇CAD时，我们经常以下意识、冲动的决定去反应，就和拉斯科利尼夫是一个瞬间冲动的杀手一样。

三.背景知识

《罪与罚》是俄国文学家杜斯妥也夫斯基的长篇小说作品，出版于1866年，在他贫穷时仓促完成，与《战争与和平》并列为最具有影响力的俄国小说。

简介

本作品是关于一个贫穷的法律系大学生拉斯柯尼科夫的故事，他离群索居，赁居在彼得堡一个窄小的房间，不远处住著掌管当铺的老太婆。

老太婆为人吝啬，只愿意付极少的代价来收购人们去典当的物品。拉斯柯尼科夫长期罹患忧郁症，并拥有实践他所谓伟人可以舍弃一切道德约束乃至有权力犯罪的念头；于是于谋划后以斧头砍死当铺的老太婆，并失手杀死她的妹妹丽莎维塔，匆匆拿走一些珠宝与钱财，从此他便在自身罪恶感的折磨下受尽痛苦。

这期间他认识了一位为赡养家人而被迫卖淫，但信仰却极为虔诚的女子索妮雅。受到索妮雅和预审官波尔费利等影响，他最后向警方自首。经过审判，拉斯柯尼科夫被流放到西伯利亚服刑八年，索妮雅跟著他到西伯利亚，拉斯柯尼科夫对索妮雅一直有不谅解，不敢正视她的存在。直到索妮雅大病一场的时候，他终于才发现自己是如何的爱她，决心用尽一切来补偿她。小说结尾拉斯科尼科夫皈依东正教以忏悔。

威廉哈本的《卡夫卡其人与其作品》中，曾对卡夫卡跟杜思妥也夫斯基做过比较： “ …杜思妥也夫斯基的一个寓言就是，当人类没有信仰，什么事情都干得出来。在《罪与罚》里面，没有任何人有罪，但罚却加诸在每个人身上。”

四.思考

以前曾听说过这样一句话，“我最怕的事情是我不知道我无知。”如果可以意识到自己的无知，那解决方法挺简单的，现在资源真么多，谷歌一下，就去学了。可是当我们无法认识到自己的无知的时候，那就比较难，因为那知识就存在于那，我们却不知道它就在那。面对这种情况文章中作者给了一个建议：提高自我意识，常规地问问自己我是处于无知的状态吗？保持一种开放的形态，谦虚的心态。

除了这种方法，多读书也是一种认识到自己无知的方法，看看别人怎么想，别人怎么解决问题，再对比自己过去怎么想，过去怎么解决问题，保持着主动性与好奇心去读书，常常会有这样的体验，“原来还可以这么想，我怎么就想不到呢？”随着知识阅历的增加，我想我们会更谦虚，更有好奇心的，因为知道的越多，也意味着知道那不知道的会越多的。

本译文仅供个人研习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。本译文所涉法律后果均由本人承担。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。

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