《经济学人20170729封面文章》 - 委内瑞拉，我该拿你肿么

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这期的标题是How to deal with Venezuela - Sanctions should target officials, not the country
委内瑞拉该咋整嘞 - 制裁应该针对当局，而不是国家

VENEZUELA claims to have more oil than Saudi Arabia, yet its citizens are hungry. An astonishing 93% of them say they cannot afford the food they need, and three-quarters have lost weight in the past year. The regime that caused this preventable tragedy professes great love for the poor. Yet its officials have embezzled billions, making Venezuela the most corrupt country in Latin America, as well as the most ineptly governed. It is a textbook example of why democracy matters: people with bad governments should be able to throw the bums out. That is perhaps why President Nicolás Maduro is so eager to smother what little is left of democracy in Venezuela.
委内瑞拉比沙特阿拉伯有着更多的石油，但人民却在挨饿。高达93%的民众表示他们买不起需要的食物，四分之三的人在过去一年体重下降。而原本可以避免这种悲剧的当局却宣称他们是站在穷人这边的。行政人员贪污掉了数十亿美金，让委内瑞拉变成了拉丁美洲最为腐败，同时也是管理最差的国家。这是一个展示民主重要性的教科书式的范例。那些遭受了垃圾政府的人民应当有权利把当局赶下台。这也是为什么总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗如此迫切的想要把委内瑞拉仅存的一点民主扼杀在摇篮之中

On July 30th, barring a last-minute change of mind, Mr Maduro will hold a rigged election to rubber-stamp the creation of a hand-picked constituent assembly whose aim is to perpetuate his unpopular state-socialist regime . It will complete the destruction of the powers of parliament, now controlled by the opposition, and wreck the integrity of a presidential election due next year, which, if it were free and fair, Mr Maduro would surely lose. Opponents say the assembly will install Cuban-style communism. At the very least, its creation will provoke more violence in a country where the streets are already choked with tear gas and littered with buckshot from police shotguns. In almost four months of protests, more than 100 people have died; hundreds more have been locked up for political reasons. All this infuriates Venezuelans. It should alarm the outside world, too.
7月30日，除非在最后时刻改变主意，马杜罗同志肯定会搞一个装模作样的选举，选民都是精心挑选过的，这样他那不受欢迎的社会党政权就可以继续保持。这将会彻底摧毁反对派控制的国会，从而进一步破坏明年的总统大选。如果大选公平自由的话，他必输无疑。反对者表示这种集合将会诞生古巴式的共产主义，或者说至少会给国家带来更多的暴力。在这儿，街上已经满是催泪弹和警察散弹枪发射出来的大号铅弹。在近4个月的抗议活动中，有超过100人死亡，几百人因政治原因被捕。这彻底激怒了委内瑞拉人，也应该引起国际社会的警惕

The clueless caudillo of Caracas
By the end of this year Venezuela’s economic collapse since 2012 will be the steepest in modern Latin American history. Income per person is now back where it was in the 1950s. The main cause of this calamity is ideological. Following the lead of his late mentor, Hugo Chávez, Mr Maduro spends public money lavishly, especially on his supporters. Weak oil prices and inept management mean he cannot pay his bills. So he prints money and blames speculators for the resulting inflation, which is expected to exceed 1,000% this year. The black-market price for US dollars is now about 900 times the official rate. Price controls and the expropriation of private firms have led to shortages of food and medicine. With hospitals bare of supplies, the maternal mortality rate jumped by 66% last year. Officials flagrantly profiteer from their access to hard currency and basic goods. Venezuela has become a favoured route for drug-trafficking and is awash with arms.
加拉加斯愚蠢的元首
到今年年底，委内瑞拉自2012至今的经济崩溃将会是现代拉丁美洲历史上最为夸张的一次。人均收入已经回到了1950年代的水平。这场灾难的根源在于意识形态问题。马杜罗同志效仿他的近代导师-乌戈·查维兹，大肆挥霍公款，对他的支持者们尤其大方。低迷的油价和糟糕的管理让他根本负担不起这种开销。所以他开动印钞机各种印钞，然后把通货膨胀的屎盆子扣在投机者身上。今年的通胀预计会超过1000%。在黑市上，美金的汇率是官方的900倍。价格管制和征用私营企业导致了食品和药物的短缺。医院缺乏必要物资，去年的产妇死亡率上升了66%。当局明目张胆的利用对基础物资与货币的控制牟取暴利。委内瑞拉变成了贩毒贸易的畅通之路，武装力量则随处可见。

Some left-wingers, such as Britain’s Jeremy Corbyn, imagine that Venezuela’s “Bolivarian revolution” is a promising experiment in social justice. Tell that to the tens of thousands of Venezuelans who have fled to neighbouring countries. As the crisis worsens, their number will rise. That makes Venezuela’s government a threat to the region as well as its own people.
一些左翼人士，比如英国的Jeremy Corbyn，幻想着委内瑞拉那种“波利瓦尔主义革命”是一个有非常前途的有关社会正义的实验。然而已经有成千上万的委内瑞拉人逃到了邻国。随着危机的恶化，人数还在不断上升。这使得委内瑞拉政府无论对于本国人民还是周边地区都是一个威胁

What can be done? The best solution would be a negotiated transition. Mr Maduro would finish his term but would respect the constitution and parliament, free political prisoners and guarantee that overdue regional elections, and the presidential contest next year, take place fairly. However, an attempt at such a negotiation failed last year, and there is no sign that Mr Maduro and his cronies will voluntarily surrender power.
那咋整嘞？最佳方案无疑是协商性过渡。马杜罗同志完成任期之后走人，但要尊重宪法和国会，释放政治犯，并保证拖延已久的地方选举顺利举行，当然还有明年的总统大选要公平公正。然而，这样的协商尝试去年失败了，目前也看不到马杜罗同志及其盟友会主动放弃权力的迹象

Those who want to save Venezuela have limited influence, but they are not helpless. The opposition, a variegated alliance long on personal ambition and short of cohesion, needs to do far more to become a credible alternative government. That includes agreeing on a single leader. Some in the opposition think all that is needed to trigger the regime’s collapse is to ramp up the protests. That looks fanciful. Mr Maduro can still count on the army, with which he co-governs. In Venezuela’s command economy he controls such money as there is, and retains the backing of a quarter of Venezuelans—enough to put his own people on the streets. And he has the advice of Cuba’s security officials, who are experts in selective repression.
那些想要拯救委内瑞拉于水火的人影响力有限，但并非毫无起色。反对派的组成杂七杂八，里面不乏个人理想但凝聚力不足，要想成为另一个可靠的政府还有很长的路要走，包括选出一个真正的领导人。有些反对派认为只搞更多的示威和抗议就能把当局拉下马，真的是很傻很天真。马杜罗同志依旧可以依赖他控制的军队。在委内瑞拉这种中央管制的经济体制下，他控制了可以支持四分之一委内瑞拉人的财富，这使得他可以让自己的人占领街道。而且他还听从古巴保安官员的专业建议，这些人可都是搞选择性镇压的高手

Aim at the regime, not its victims
Latin America has at last woken up to the threat. Venezuela is far more isolated than it was, having been suspended from the Mercosur trade group. But it was able to avoid a similar suspension from the Organisation of American States (OAS) last month with the backing of its ideological allies and some Caribbean island-states to which it offers cheap oil. The United States should have applied more diplomatic muscle to sway the vote at the OAS. President Donald Trump is now considering broad sanctions such as barring the import of Venezuelan oil, or banning American companies from working in Venezuela’s oil industry. That would be a mistake: Mr Maduro would find new buyers for his oil within months. In the meantime, ordinary people would suffer more than the regime’s loyalists. And broad sanctions might strengthen the regime, because Mr Maduro’s empty claim that he faces “economic warfare” from “imperial” America would at last have some substance.
把焦点放在政权上，而不是那些受害者身上
拉丁美洲最终觉察到了这股威胁。委内瑞拉比之前已经孤立了太多，也已被南美贸易同盟暂时取消资格。但它上个月因为向一些所谓的同盟国以及部分加勒比海岛国提供廉价石油，而保住了美洲国家国家组织OAS的会员资格。美国应当动用更多的外交力量来影响OAS的投票情况。川普总统正在考虑更大范围的制裁，比如禁止从委内瑞拉的石油进口，或是禁止美国公司参与委内瑞拉的石油产业。但这么干可不是什么好主意，马杜罗同志花不了多长时间就能为他的石油找到新的买家。同时，老百姓因此而受到的损失要比当局和拥护者更大。还有，更多的制裁也许会强化当前政权的统治，因为马杜罗同志宣称他正面临着美帝国主义的经济战争，这么搞毕竟会给这种说法落下口实

More promisingly, on July 26th the Trump administration announced individual sanctions on a further 13 Venezuelan officials involved in the constituent assembly, or suspected of corruption or abusing human rights. These officials have had visas withdrawn, and American banks and firms are barred from doing business with them. This effort could be intensified by pressing banks to disclose embarrassing information about officials who have stashed stolen public funds abroad. The European Union and Latin America should join this effort.
比较乐观的是，7月26日，川普当局宣布了针对13位委内瑞拉官员的单独制裁条款，主要针对他们在立宪会议时的行为，或是腐败嫌疑以及侵害人权等方面。这些官员的签证已被取消，美国的银行与公司也已经被禁止与他们从事任何商业上的往来。这方面努力可以通过向银行施压，要求他们披露敏感信息而加强，这些官员窃取了公款之后通常都藏在海外。欧盟与整个拉丁美洲应当也参与到这项努力中来

It will not, in itself, force the regime to change. But the stick of individual sanctions should be combined with the offer of negotiations, brokered by foreign governments. Any final deal may have to include legal immunity for senior Venezuelan officials. That is distasteful, but may be necessary to achieve a peaceful transition back to democracy.
当然仅凭这就想要政权改变是不可能的，但单独制裁的大棒应当与谈判的提议结合起来，可以找他国政府作为中间人出面协调。任何最终结果可能都免不了给予委内瑞拉高级官员法律上的豁免权作为条件。这真的是很恶心，但可能也是和平回归民主所必要的妥协

The alternative could be a slide into generalised violence, for which Mr Maduro would be squarely responsible. Already there are signs of anarchy, with radicals on both sides slipping loose from their leaders’ control. Rather than a second Cuba or a tropical China, chavista Venezuela, with its corruption, gangs and ineptitude, risks becoming something much worse.
事态的另一种可能就是滑向全面的暴力，真要这样的话马杜罗同志要对此负全部责任。现在无政府状态已然凸显，两边的激进分子越来越不受本方领导人的控制。想着不要成为第二个古巴或是变成一个热带中国，查韦斯（上任总统）的委内瑞拉，却因为它的腐败，黑帮和无能，让事情朝着更坏的方向发展了