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From good to bad: 5 possible options for what's next in North Korea-U.S. standoff

朝鲜问题未来5种可能发展方向

Continued standoff

对峙

Under this scenario, the United States ratchets up economic pressure on North Korea. In response, Kim continues to test missiles, though stopping short of what he believes will trigger a military response. The heated rhetoric on both sides goes uninterrupted, resulting in a tense relationship that has persisted for more than a decade.

美国强力经济制裁朝鲜，朝鲜继续试射导弹。没有发生军事对抗。双方关系紧张，双方保持对峙状态。

The North has engaged in “unbridled rhetoric and calibrated provocation,” said Patrick Cronin, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security. Kim threatened to fire missiles toward Guam, a U.S. territory and home to key U.S. military facilities, but instead launched a missile that sailed high over Japanese territory. It was a dangerous but less provocative move. “They don’t want to provoke a war,” Cronin said.

朝鲜的做法：言辞非常激烈，控制挑衅活动的尺度。威胁向关岛发射导弹，实际却发射越过日本的导弹。美国的分析人员认为朝鲜不愿意触发战争。

“This is the new normal,” said Jeffrey Lewis, an analyst at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Quiet talks

幕后谈判

The United States and North Korea have maintained back-channel communications with each other, but analysts believe any formal talks about dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program is not likely to happen soon.

美朝有秘密通讯管道。但美国的分析人员相信近期不会有正式的朝鲜无核化谈判。

Kim sees possession of nuclear weapons as a key to his survival and would be reluctant to give them up without major concessions. "North Korea will never give up on its nuclear program," said Sheila Miyoshi Jager, a professor at Oberlin College and author ofBrothers at War: The Unending Conflict in Korea.

朝鲜认为拥有核武器对朝鲜存在有很重要的作用。没有重要的收获朝鲜不愿放弃核武项目。Sheila Miyoshi Jager 教授提到朝鲜永远不会放弃核项目。

For its part, the U.S. fears that sitting down with North Korea now would only reward Kim for bad behavior. "We have tended to hold a weak hand,” said Bruce Bennett, an analyst at Rand Corporation, a think tank.

美国担心现在与朝鲜谈判只会鼓励坏行为。

Still, behind-the-scenes dialogue could prevent a miscalculation that may lead to war and probe for areas where the two sides might be willing to negotiate a deal.

幕后谈判可以抑制重要误判，并可以为正面谈判做准备工作。

Kim-Trump summit

领导人峰会

One way to get the North to the negotiating table would be the prospect of a formal summit between Trump and Kim. It is unlikely to happen soon, given the exchange of ever-coarser insults, but analysts say it is not completely far-fetched. Trump said in May that he would be "honored" to meet with Kim under the "right circumstances." For the North Korean leader, a meeting with Trump would represent a major victory, conferring prestige and legitimacy on his regime.

“I think it will actually happen but we're not close to it right now,” Cronin said. “Trump will be pragmatic enough to arrange a meeting.”

South Korean mediation

韩国调停

South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in, was elected on a platform of attempting reconciliation with the North. Kim’s erratic actions over recent months seems to have dampened some of his enthusiasm for that policy. But Lewis said Moon's administration remains committed to opening a dialogue with the North.

韩国文在寅政权仍然试图和朝鲜对话。

There are a number of issues that could lead to communications between the two sides, including allowing families who were divided by war to visit each other. It is not clear how the Trump administration would view such talks, though a lessening of tensions between the two countries might make Kim more likely to agree to broader discussions.

War

战争

The United States says diplomacy is the preferred means of solving the crisis, but a military response remains an option if that fails. “There are many military options, in concert with our allies that we will take to defend our allies and our own interests,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said.

美国优先选择外交处理方案，但如果外交处理方案失败也会考虑选择军事处理方案。

None of the military options are good, and could even prove to be catastrophic. North Korea has nuclear weapons and a military with about 1 million active duty personnel and artillery pointing directly at Seoul, South Korea’s capital of 10 million people, less than 40 miles from the border.

没有好的军事处理方案。军事处理方案可能会有严重的后果。

Miscalculations are a danger amid the heated rhetoric and provocative missile and nuclear  tests. Both sides want to avoid being caught flat-footed in the event of war and could attempt a preemptive strike if either thought the other was about to attack.

现在局势紧张，可能引发误判。如果判定对方将会发动袭击，美韩方和朝方都可能发起先发制人的行动。

“Everyone wants to launch first,” Lewis said.

If that happens, hundreds of thousands of people, and possibly millions, might perish.

如果战争发生，后果可能严重。