Crude awakening 19.02.08 Economi

In america, the world’s largest economy and its second biggest polluter, climate change is becoming hard to ignore. Extreme weather has grown more frequent. In November wildfires scorched California; last week Chicago was colder than parts of Mars. Scientists are sounding the alarm more urgently and people have noticed—73% of Americans polled by Yale University late last year said that climate change is real. The left of the Democratic Party wants to put a “Green New Deal” at the heart of the election in 2020. As expectations shift, the private sector is showing signs of adapting. Last year around 20 coal mines shut. Fund managers are prodding firms to become greener. 

在世界最大的经济体和第二大污染源的美国，气候变化已经越来越难以忽视。极端天气变得越加频繁。十一月野火席卷了加州，上周芝加哥要比火星的一些地方还要冷。科学家更加紧迫地敲响警钟，并且去年年末耶鲁大学统计出有73%的美国民众认识到气候变化是真的了。民主党左翼想要在2020年大选中发布一个“绿色新政”（The Green New Deal (GND)[1][2] is any of several proposed[3][4] economic stimulus programs in the United States that aim to address both economic inequality and climate change. ）。随着期望的转变，私人部门表现出接受的迹象。去年大约20个煤矿被关闭。基金经理们也鼓励公司更加环保。

Warren Buffett, no sucker for fads, is staking $30bn on clean energy and Elon Musk plans to fill America’s highways with electric cars. Yet amid the clamour is a single, jarring truth. Demand for oil is rising and the energy industry, in America and globally, is planning multi-trillion-dollar investments to satisfy it. No firm embodies this strategy better than ExxonMobil, the giant that rivals admire and green activists love to hate. As our briefing explains, it plans to pump 25% more oil and gas in 2025 than in 2017. If the rest of the industry pursues even modest growth, the consequence for the climate could be disastrous. ExxonMobil shows that the market cannot solve climate change by itself. Muscular government action is needed. 

沃伦巴菲特，这个不追寻流行的人，也在清洁能源上投入了300亿美金。并且埃隆马斯克也计划用电动汽车填满美国的街道。然而在这些喧嚣之中有一个不和谐的事实：石油的需求仍在上升，并且美国和世界上的能源工业正在计划投入数万亿的资金来开发。这其中的佼佼者是埃克森美孚，埃克森美孚是竞争对手钦慕、环保运动者憎恨的剧透。正如我们的简报所示，埃克森美孚计划在2025年增加比2017年多25%的石油和天然气产量。如果行业中的剩下公司也追寻更加稳健的增长的话，对于气候的结果将是灾难性的。埃克森美孚向我们表明市场不能自行解决气候变化问题。我们需要一个强硬的政府行动。

Contrary to the fears of many Republicans (and hopes of some Democrats), that need not involve a bloated role for the state. For much of the 20th century, the five oil majors— Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, bp and Total—had more clout than some small countries. Although the majors’ power has waned, they still account for 10% of global oil and gas output and 16% of upstream investment. They set the tone for smaller, privately owned energy firms (which control another quarter of investment). 

与许多共和党人的恐惧、以及部分民主党人的希望相反，对政府行动的需求并不需要对各州的强大压力。在20世纪中，五大石油巨头——雪佛龙、埃克森美孚、皇家壳牌、英国石油公司和道达尔——比一些小国还要更加严重。虽然主要力量已经衰落，但他们仍占据全球汽油和天然气排出量的10%，和上游投资的16%。他们是小型、私有能源公司的奠基石，这些小型公司掌控了另外1/4的投资。

And millions of pensioners and other savers rely on their profits. Of the 20 firms paying the biggest dividends in Europe and America, four are majors. In 2000 bp promised to go “beyond petroleum” and, on the face of it, the majors have indeed changed. All say that they support the Paris agreement to limit climate change and all are investing  in renewables such as solar. Shell recently said that it would curb emissions from its products. Yet ultimately you should judge companies by what they do, not what they say.

并且许多领养老金的人以及其他救助者都依靠他们的利润或者。在欧洲和美国20位缴纳最多的分红的公司中，四个石油公司位居前列。在2000年英国石油公司承诺超越石油事业，而且巨头石油公司们也确实改变了。所有人都说他们支持巴黎协定，他们都投资了类似太阳能的可再生能源。壳牌最近表示会限制他们产品的排出量。但是最后你还是应该从公司他们的所为中判断他们，而不是他们所说的话。

According to ExxonMobil, global oil and gas demand will rise by 13% by 2030. All of the majors, not just ExxonMobil, are expected to expand their output. Far from mothballing all their gasfields and gushers, the industry is investing in upstream projects from Texan shale to high-tech deep-water wells. Oil companies, directly and through trade groups, lobby against measures that would limit emissions. The trouble is that, according to an assessment by the ipcc, an intergovernmental climate-science body, oil and gas production needs to fall by about 20% by 2030 and by about 55% by 2050, in order to stop the Earth’s temperature rising by more than 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level.

根据埃克森美孚所知，全球汽油和天然气需求将在2030年增长13%。不止埃克森美孚，所有巨头都希望扩大产量。与封存油田和油井完全相反，企业将投资德克萨斯页岩和高科技深水井等上游项目。石油公司直接或通过贸易团体与限制排放的法案周旋。根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（一个政府间气候科学机构）的估计，麻烦在于为了阻止地球气温上升到比平均水平高1.5℃的水平，石油和天然气的产量需要在2030年前下降20%，在2050年前下降约55%

It would be wrong to conclude that the energy firms must therefore be evil. They are responding to incentives set by society. The financial returns from oil are higher than those from renewables. For now, worldwide demand for oil is growing by 1-2% a year, similar to the average over the past five decades—and the typical major derives a minority of its stockmarket value from profits it will make after 2030. However much the majors are vilified by climate warriors, many of whom drive cars and take planes, it is not just legal for them to maximise profits, it is also a requirement that shareholders can enforce. Some hope that the oil companies will gradually head in a new direction, but that looks optimistic. It would be rash to rely on brilliant innovations to save the day. Global investment in renewables, at $300bn a year, is dwarfed by what is being committed to fossil fuels. Even in the car industry, where scores of electric models are being launched, around 85% of vehicles are still expected to use internal-combustion engines in 2030.

就此得出能源公司一定是邪恶的结论是不对的。他们只是对社会发出的激励做出了反应。石油产业的经济利润比可回收能源要高很多。从现在开始，世界对于石油的需求将逐年增加1-2%，与过去五十年的平均水平类似，并且几个巨头在2030年后挣得的利润中可以得到的股票价值是很少的。但许多巨头都被气候战士们污蔑，这些气候战士们往往也开车、搭乘飞机。这些公司来最大化利润是合法的，也是股东们应实施的必要。一些人希望石油公司可以更改新方向，但这太过于乐观。依靠天才般的创新来拯救世界是不现实的。国际上对于新能源的投资（一年3000亿）与石油燃料的投资比起来要相形见绌。甚至在开发了许多电子模型的汽车产业，在2030年仍有85%的车辆还是使用内燃机的。

So, too, the boom in ethical investing. Funds with $32trn of assets have joined to put pressure on the world’s biggest emitters. Fund managers, facing a collapse in their traditional business, are glad to sell green products which, helpfully, come with higher fees. But few big investment groups have dumped the shares of big energy firms. Despite much publicity, oil companies’ recent commitments to green investors remain modest. And do not expect much from the courts. Lawyers are bringing waves of actions accusing oil firms of everything from misleading the public to being liable for rising sea levels. 

所以道德投资方面也迅速蓬勃起来。拥有32万亿的资产已经共同对世界最大的排放者施加压力。面临着传统生意衰落的基金经理也很乐于销售高费用的绿色产品。但几乎没有大的投资公司抛出大型能源公司的股份。虽然有很多的宣传，但石油公司对环保投资者的承诺依旧暧昧。我们也不用期盼能从法庭上得到什么。律师们已经争先恐后地起诉石油公司误导大众对海平面提升有责任的所有方面。

Some think oil firms will suffer the same fate as tobacco firms, which faced huge settlements in the 1990s. They forget that big tobacco is still in business. In June a federal judge in California ruled that climate change was a matter for Congress and diplomacy, not judges. The next 15 years will be critical for climate change. If innovators, investors, the courts and corporate self-interest cannot curb fossil fuels, then the burden must fall on the political system. In 2017 America said it would withdraw from the Paris agreement and the Trump administration has tried to resurrect the coal industry. Even so, climate could yet enter the political mainstream and win cross-party appeal. Polls suggest that moderate and younger Republicans care. A recent pledge by dozens of prominent economists spanned the partisan divide.

一些人认为石油公司将会与土豆公司面临相同的命运，这些土豆公司在20世纪90年代得到了大型清算。他们忘记了大型土豆公司依旧在营业。六月加州的联邦法官规定气候变化是国会和外交会的责任，不是法官的责任。接下来的15年对于气候变化非常关键。如果发明家、投资者、国会和公司不能限制石油燃料的话，那么这种压力将会落在政府系统的身上。2017年美国表示退出巴黎协定，特朗普政府尝试重启煤炭产业。即使如此，气候问题也会进入政治主流之中并且赢得跨党派的支持。民意调查表明温和、年轻的共和党很在意气候问题。最近许多杰出经济学者做出的保证也扩大了党派间的分歧。

The key will be to show centrist voters that cutting emissions is practical and will not leave them much worse off. Although the Democrats’ emerging Green New Deal raises awareness, it almost certainly fails this test as it is based on a massive expansion of government spending and central planning (see Free exchange). The best policy, in America and beyond, is to tax carbon emissions, which ExxonMobil backs. The gilets jaunes in France show how hard that will be. Work will be needed on designing policies that can command popular support by giving the cash raised back to the public in the form of offsetting tax cuts. The fossil-fuel industry would get smaller, government would not get bigger and businesses would be free to adapt as they see fit— including, even, ExxonMobil.7 Crude awakening ExxonMobil and the oil industry are making a bet that could end up wrecking the climate Leaders.

关键就在于向中立派们表明，降低排放量很有效并且不会使情况更糟。虽然民主党的绿色新政引起了大家的关注，但因为这项政策是基于政府支出以及中央计划的大量增长，就注定了它的失败。美国以及其他国家的最好政策就是对碳排放征税，埃克森美孚也支持这个提议。法国的黄背心运动也证实了这项政策将会多么难以实施。十分需要人才来设计能够通过抵税来获得公众支持的政策。石油产业将会缩减，政府不会扩大，商业将会随意接受计划---包括埃克森美孚石油觉醒计划，并且石油产业将会打赌结束破坏气候。

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