Fractured 十字路口-法国大选何去何从？（上）

文中英文部分来自“经济学人”杂志。本译文是个人学习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝转载或用于任何商业用途。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。

由于本人能力有限，错漏在所难免，随时欢迎批评指正。

认识一下年轻有为，风头正劲的埃马纽埃尔·马克龙，他４０岁不到，原是左派阵营一名政治新星，2016年７月成立自己的政党“前进”，宣称要超越左右阵营之别。他2016年８月正式辞去经济部长一职，并于当年１１月宣布参加大选。他是极右翼政党国民阵线主席玛丽娜·勒庞共和党总统候选人、前总理，弗朗索瓦·菲永最强劲的对手。信息来自网络，侵删。

COGOLIN AND PARIS

Resurgent French populism reflects a new social faultline

法国民粹主义的复兴反映了一种新的社会断层

With its shuttered façades, narrow streets and shaded main square, this small southern town has a certain Proven-çal charm. It boasts a twice-weekly market, two well-equipped sports halls, a public library and a narrow strip of beach. Yet an intangible air of disappointment hangs over Cogolin. Its poverty rate is well above the national average. Unemployment, at 18%, is nearly twice that of France as a whole. Many of those with jobs belong to the army of workers who repaint, clean, mow and cook at the villas and yachts of nearby Saint-Tropez. In 2014 the town elected a mayor from the xenophobic NationalFront (FN) with 53% of the vote.

装有百叶窗的外墙，狭窄的街道和阴暗的中央广场，这个南部小镇颇有些普罗旺斯的魅力。它值得自豪的东西包括一周两次的集市，两个设备齐全的体育馆，一个公共图书馆以及一处狭长的海滩。然而，一种无形的失望气氛弥漫在Cogolin的上空。其贫困率远高于全国平均水平。失业率达到了18％，几乎法国整体水平的两倍。许多有工作的人属于在圣特罗佩兹附近别墅或游艇上从业大军中的一员，从事重新粉刷，清洁，修剪和烹饪等职业。 2014年，该镇选出一位新市长。他来自排外的国民阵线（FN），得票率为53％。（注：圣特罗佩兹是法国南部的城市,是画家、作家、特别是演员汇集的地方)

Nearly three years into his term, Marc Etienne Lansade embodies the new-look FN. There are no shaven heads to be found at the town hall. With his monogrammed shirts and leather loafers, this former property developer from a chic suburb of Paris talks at length of his plans to develop Cogolin’s marina. He has taken on debt, partly to pay for extra local policemen. He is unapologetic about favouring expressions of Roman Catholic identity, such as a Christmas nativity scene in the town hall, dismissing critics of such gestures as “leftist Islamophiles”.He may come across as a hard-right deal-maker, but not as a thug.

他上任已近三年，Marc Etienne Lansade呈现出国民阵线的新气象。市政厅里找不到剃光头的人。穿着印有文字的衬衫和皮革便鞋，来自时髦的巴黎郊区的这位前房地产开发商终于谈起了开发Cogolin游艇码头的计划。他举了债，部分是为了给额外的当地警察支付薪水。他对偏爱罗马天主教身份没有丝毫的悔意，例如市政厅里的圣诞场景.有人批评这是“左派亲伊斯兰”行为，但他不予理会。驳斥为对这种手势的批评，如“左派伊斯兰教徒”。他可能给人留下极右商人的印象，而不是一个暴徒。

Local opponents accuse him of financing his development plans in “opaque” ways and an “ideological” hostility to cultural diversity, such as North African songs or dances in schools. The voters, though,seem undeterred. The year after they elected Mr Lansade, 54% of voters in Cogolin backed the FN candidate, Marion Maré-chal-Le Pen, niece of Marine Le Pen, the FN’s leader, at regional elections. And a great many will vote for Ms Le Pen herselfin the first round of the forthcoming presidentialelection on April 23rd.

当地反对者指责他为其开发计划融资的手段不够光明磊落，而且对文化多样性有“意识形态”敌意，比如学校的北非歌曲或舞蹈。 但是，选民似乎没有被吓到。 在他们选举Lansade为市长后的第二年，Cogolin54％的选民在地区选举中选择支持国民阵线候选人MarionMaré-chal-Le Pen，她是国民阵线领导人Marine Le Pen的侄女。 在即将举行的4月23日总统选举第一轮投票中相当多的选民将投票给勒庞女士本人。

No precedents for the president

没有先例的总统大选

At a Cogolin bakery where Algerian pastries are nestled next to the baguettes, a middle-aged woman, asked about her country’s politicians, says she has “a real desire to kick them all up the backside”. Over the past few months almost all the most prominent of them, save Ms Le Pen,have thus been kicked. In the centre-right primary, held in November, voters rejected an ex-president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and an ex-prime minister, Alain Juppé. In January’s Socialist primary they turfed out another ex-prime minister, Manuel Valls. They would have rejected François Hollande,too, had he not already bowed out of the race—an unprecedented move for a sitting French president.

在一家Cogolin面包店，阿尔及利亚甜点紧挨着放在法国长面包旁边，一个中年女子，被问及法国的政治家们，她说，“真想踢他们的屁股”。 在过去几个月里，几乎所有最杰出的人物，除了Le Pen，就这样被排斥。 在11月举行的中右初选，选民拒绝了前总统尼古拉斯·萨科齐和前总理阿兰·朱佩。 在1月的社会党初选衷，他们赶走了另一位前总理曼努埃尔·瓦尔斯。 如果弗朗索瓦·奥朗德没有退出竞选，他们也会抵制他，对于在任总统来说，这是前所未有的举动。

This bonfire of the elites has left France with a slate of candidates all but one of whom were not considered serious contenders for any party’s nomination six months ago. One of them, Emmanuel Macron,a former Socialist economy minister, is a candidate without the backing of an established party but with a real chance of victory, another unprecedented development.Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party’s candidate, is a former backbench rebel against his own party. The centre-right nominee, François Fillon, will be put under formal investigation on March 15th accused of abusing his office to pay unearned salaries to his family; nevertheless, he says he will fight on.

篝火燃烧后，灰烬中只给法国留下了几个精英的残渣。六个月前，对任何政党的提名来说，除一人之外，他们中没人被认为是真正的竞争者。 举个例子，前社会党经济部长，埃马纽埃尔·麦克龙（Emmanuel Macron），没有任何确定的党派支持，却有取胜的切实可能性。这是另一个前所未有的发展。 社会党候选人贝诺瓦·哈蒙（Benoît Hamon）是他自己党派的背叛者。 中右翼候选人François Fillon将于3月15日接受正式调查，他被控滥用职权向家人支付不劳而获的酬劳; 但是，他说会继续战斗下去。

And then there is Ms Le Pen. The populist leader, who has run the FN since 2011, leads The Economist’s poll of polls. There is a good chance that she will come top in the first round of the election—again, something for which there is no precedent. (When her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the FN’s founder and former leader, got into the second round in 2002 it was as the first-round runner-up, with just 17% of the vote). For the other candidates the election has become a race to stand against her in the second round on May 7th, and the campaign a test of the ability of mainstream politicians to shape a response to renascent nationalism.

接下来是Le Pen女士。作为民粹主义领导人，她自2011年以来一直主持运作国民阵线。在“经济学人”关于投票的民意调查中一直处于领先位置。 她很可能会在第一轮选举中登顶，这又是没有先例的事情。（当她的父亲，国民阵线创始人和前领导人Jean-Marie Le Pen，在2002年第二轮竞选时，他是以首轮第二位的身份进入的，只获得了17％的选票）。 对于其他候选人来说，选举已然成为在5月7日第二轮竞选对抗她的比赛，同时也变成对主流政治人物就复兴民族主义形成回应的能力测试。

Ms Le Pen will find it difficult to win in the second round; as yet, no poll has shown her doing so. One recently found her losing to Mr Macron by 42% to 58%; against Mr Fillon she does a bit better. But the margins leave little room for complacency. She is a strong campaigner, with a well organised party. Mr Macron, for all that he is fighting an insurgent campaign, can be painted as a very establishment character—of the sort who came off much worse in the votes for Brexit and Donald Trump than elite opinion expected. Many voters remain undecided, and more may still be biddable. Over two-fifths of those who have made a choice admit that they may yet change it.

但是勒庞女士将很难在第二轮获胜; 至今没有民意调查显示她能办得到。 最新的调查结果显示，她将以42％比58％输给马克龙先生; 对菲永先生她做的更好一点。，但也领先很少，没有留下多少自满放松的空间。她是一个很强的竞争者，而且有高度组织的政党助阵。 虽然马克龙先生在为颠覆式竞选做努力，他可以被描绘成一个非常有确定性格的人 - 这种人在英国退欧公投和唐纳德.特朗普竞选中的表现比精英预期糟糕得多。 许多选民仍然犹豫未决，更多的选民仍然可以争取。 超过五分之二的人虽然做出了选择，但承认还有可能做出改变。

Nicolas Baverez, a lawyer and commentator, compares France’s mood to that of 1930, when fascism was on the rise, or even 1789, the eve of the French revolution. In the parquet-floored salons of Paris, conversation readily turns to such sombre parts of history. “The historian in me is very pessimistic,” says Dominique Moïsi, of the Institut Montaigne, a think-tank, “because I know that these things can happen.”

律师和评论家尼古拉斯·巴韦雷斯（Nicolas Baverez）将目前法国的气氛与1930年法西斯主义上升阶段的情形，甚至与1789年法国大革命前夕的情况进行了对比。在巴黎的镶木地板沙龙里，谈话内容很容易转向这些沉重的历史片段。 “我心里的历史学家非常悲观”，在Montaigne研究所（一家智库）工作的Dominique Moïsi说，“因为我知道这种事会发生。”

The election of Ms Le Pen would not only bring to power a leader who has compared Muslims praying in the street to the Nazi occupation of France. It would prompt a crisis of government: the FN is highly unlikely to win a majority in June’s legislative elections, even if she is president. And it would threaten the future of Europe. Ms Le Pen has promised to abandon the euro in favour of a new franc and to hold a referendum on leaving the EU within her first six months (though she would need parliamentary approval to do so). The EU can survive the loss of Britain; the loss of France would bring the project that has underpinned the European order for the past 60 years to a close.

勒庞女士的当选不仅意味着给于这个把街道上祈祷的穆斯林与纳粹占领法国相提并论的领导人以权力，还将引发政府危机。国民阵线不大可能在6月的立法选举中赢得多数，即便她成功当选总统。这将对欧洲的未来构成威胁。 勒庞女士承诺放弃欧元，支持使用新法郎，并打算在她当选的前六个月内举行关于脱离欧盟的全民公投（尽管她需要获得议会批准才能实施）。失去英国，欧盟还可以生存;法国的离去将使这个在过去60年里一直支撑着欧洲秩序的设计走向终点。

玛丽娜·勒庞(Marine Le Pen，1968年8月5日- )，是前法国"国民阵线"主席老勒庞(让·马利·勒庞)之女，法国极右翼政党"国民阵线"领导人。有"法国最危险女人"之称。2017年2月5日，发表竞选纲领演讲，正式开启竞选征程。-360百科，侵删。

The new geography puts all in doubt

新地理令人心生疑窦

In some ways, the emergence of Ms Le Pen matches a pattern of insurgent populism across Western liberal democracies. A fear of job losses due to automation and deindustrialisation; a backlash against immigration; a distrust of self-serving political elites; the echo-chamber effect of information spread on social media: common factors helping populist political movements elsewhere have touched France, too.

某种程度上，勒庞女士的出现与西方自由民主国家的民粹主义兴起的模式是一致的。对自动化和后工业化原因造成工作减少的担忧;抵制移民; 对自私自利政治精英的不信任; 社交媒体上信息传播的回声室效应：那些帮助民粹主义政治运动在他处兴起的共性因素如今也触及到了法国。

名词解释：回声室效应在媒体上是指在一个相对封闭的环境上，一些意见相近的声音不断重复，并以夸张或其他扭曲形式重复，令到处于相对封闭环境中的大多数人认为这些扭曲的故事就是事实的全部。-360百科，侵删。

Ms Le Pen’s support, like support for Mr Trump and Brexit, is well correlated with education. Only 8% of French citizens with a degree voted FN in 2014; 41% of those without a high-school diploma did. As with Mr Trump, men are better disposed to the FN than women. Ms Le Pen, like Mr Trump, is particularly popular in old industrial towns from which jobs and confidence have drained away, taking with them faith in parties of the left.

支持勒庞女士，如同支持Trump和英国脱欧公投一样，与教育程度密切相关。 2014年，只有8％的拥有学位的法国公民投票给国民阵线; 没有高中文凭的人有41％投给了国民阵线。和特朗普先生的情形一样，男人比女人更倾向于投票给国民阵线。 勒庞女士和特朗普一样，在老工业城镇特别受欢迎。在那里工作和信心已经流失，所以他们对左派政党充满信任。

Perhaps the most distinctive aspect of the FN vote, though, is the faultline it reveals between the country’s cosmopolitan cities, at ease with globalisation, and those in-between places where farmland gives way to retail sprawl and a sense of neglect. Between 2006 and 2011, the number of jobs in 13 big French cities—Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Lille, Bordeaux, Nantes, Nice, Strasbourg, Rennes, Grenoble, Rouen, Montpellier and Toulon—increased on average by 5%. In France as a whole, jobs were lost. These dynamic cities, with their elegant pedestrian centres, tech hubs and gourmet food, vote for the left (Lyon, Nantes, Rennes), the greens (Grenoble) or the centre-right (Bordeaux). They are not immune to France’s feeling of being fed up; in April and May, many of them may opt for Mr Macron. But none registers a strong vote for the FN.

也许国民阵线得票的最与众不同之处在于它所揭示出的断层线。法国的国际大都市，欣然了接受全球化。而大都市之间的那些地方，农田让位于零售扩张和被忽视的感觉。 2006年至2011年间，法国13个城市-里昂，马赛，图卢兹，里尔，波尔多，南特，尼斯，斯特拉斯堡，雷恩，格勒诺布尔，鲁昂，蒙彼利埃和土伦的工作岗位平均增加了5％。而作为整体，法国的工作在流失。这些充满活力，有着颇为讲究的步行中心，技术中心和美食的大城市，投票选举左派（里昂，南特，雷恩），绿党（格勒诺布尔）或中右派（波尔多）。他们对法国被喂饱的感觉没有免疫能力; 在4月和5月，他们中的许多人可能选择马克龙先生。但没有人为国民阵线登记，坚定地投票给他们。

Around them, though, is what Christophe Guilluy, a geographer, calls “peripheral France”. This is the world of lost employers like the Lejaby lingerie factory in Bellegarde-sur-Valserine, in the foothills of the Alps, or the Moulinex factory in Alençon, in southern Normandy. It is a world where Uber, bike-share schemes and coworking spaces are nowhere to be found, and where people sense that globalisation has passed them by. It is a world where the FN is on the rise.

然而，城市之间就是地理学家Christophe Guilluy所说的“法国周边”。如同阿尔卑斯山脚下的Bellegarde-sur-Valserine的Lejaby女士内衣工厂，或诺曼底南部Alençon的Moulinex工厂一样，这是一个失败雇主主的世界；这是一个优步，共享单车计划和共享工作空间无迹可寻的世界；这是人们感觉全球化从他们身边路过的世界；这是一个国民阵线力量正在冉冉上升的世界 。