解构未来——新经济下的必然与探索（THE INEVITABLE）
《失控》《必然》作者凯文.凯利（ Kevin Kelly ）课程 2017/3/25 北京
一、成为、认知（40M）
(BECOMING )
Long term trends can be predicted, althought their specifics can not。
（长期趋势可以预测，但细节无法预测。）
Form , not species.（构造，而非新物种。）
Everyone will become a perpetual Newbie。（ 人人都能永远做一个新人）
AI = NOT YET 人工智能=仍在探索
Many kinds of Minds, Many kinds of Thinking (多种思想，多种思维)
IQ as Service , Flow like electricity.
(智力作为一种服务 可以像电力一样传送)
Next 10,000 startups =take X, add AI
（未来将有数以万计的创业公司，从事将人工智能应用某一领域的工作。X—使用者）
You are your password. (你就是密码)
ＰＩＬＯＴ（领航者） 全球首款翻译耳机
AI CREATIVITY (人工智能创造力)
Machines share emotion (机器共享情感)
AI Skills Today : 1. visual perception ; 2. Hearing /Speech ; 3. Recommendations
(如今人工智能的本领有：视觉感知、听觉/言语、提供建议)
Jobs for humans where productivity is not important。(那些对效率要求不高的工作更适合人类。)
We'll work with the machines, not against them. (我们将和机器合作，而非对抗)
二、屏读、流动、重混（12M）
(Plate current . Follow . Remix)
File (文件) page (页面) stream(流)
Folder (目录) Link (链结) Tag (标签)
Desktop(桌面） Web （网络）Cloud （云）
Your business is now a data business (商业乃数据之商业)
1 quintillion transistors 100亿亿只晶体管
trillion links. 55万亿个链接
20 petahertz refresh rate
2亿亿赫兹刷新频率
275 exabytes memory 2.75万亿亿字节内
100 billion clicks per day 1000亿次点击
ALL companies will die. (企业终有一死) Cities obey unlimited growth .(城市则无限增长)
Internet is a city .1.5 B socia connections ..
三 、过滤、互动 、使用 （29M） (FILTERING . INTERACTING .ACCESSING )
Attention Economy (注意力经济）
where ever attention flow money will follow. （金钱既注意力。）
pay for attention （ 为注意力而付费）
Lifetime spend （终生消费）
Lifetime ripple spend （ 终生扩展式消费）
Pay people to creat ads (付费让大众创作广告)
Mixed reality (混合现实)
Tactile is ^50% (触觉占比超过50%)
VR will be the most social fo social media. (虚拟显示将是最社交化的社交媒体)
Telepresence (远程现在)
Uber -----no cars (优酷没有车)
Facebook ---no content (脸书没有内容)
Alibaba ----no inventory ( 阿里巴巴没有库存)
AirbnB----no real estate (空中食宿没有房产)
On-Demand Economy Uber of X (按需经济 各行各业的优步)
四、分享、开始（22M)
(sharing ,beginning ）
Any thing that can be shared, will be shared.
(任何能够分享的事物，一定能被分享)
collaboration
Blockchain ( p2p accountiong) 区块链技术 （P2P 结算）
比特币?
Social media ^5,000 days old
Just like reading or calculus ,it will take years of deliberate practice to learn how to internet .
Your job in 2 years has not been invented yet.
You will be newbie forever.
Try , Do, make -----Think , plan -----Repeat
Lifelong learning ; working with AI ; Design thinking ; Failing forward ; Optimists decide.
五、颠覆性技术与未来（24M）
( disruptive technology , future )
Innovation took place in don't earn money of company.
(创新都发生在不挣钱的公司。)
Prediction: Automobiles will use greater bandwidth than home.
Past succeed is the biggest problem for future success.
Maximized fitness
The future is difficult to believe.
We are at the birth of the begining.
(我们尚处在开始的开始。)
六、互动 问答（25M）
