经济学人精读 [60] The Economist | Jam
经济学人精读 The Economist [60]
选自 |January 20 2018 | Finance and Economics | 财经板块
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#Eva导读#
交通拥堵是城市发展的一个不可避免的副作用。从历史发展的过程来看，不断有新的技术解决拥堵问题，但随之而来新的拥堵又会产生。无人驾驶汽车的出现和发展可能也仅仅是暂时缓解交通拥堵问题。总而言之，从目前来看，并没有根治交通拥堵的方法。
#以上，个人总结和理解，欢迎批评指正，欢迎留言讨论
#有输出才有进步
Jam tomorrow[未来的拥堵]
Driverless cars will not save cities from either traffic or infrastructureexpense[无人驾驶驾驶汽车既不会帮助城市节省交通费用，也不会节省基础设施费用]
THE most distractingly unrealistic feature of most science fiction—by some margin—is how the great soaring cities of the future never seem to struggle with traffic[大多数科幻小说中最为不切实际的特征，在一定程度上是这个飞速发展的未来城是怎样做到从来不会遇到交通拥堵问题]. Whatever dystopias[/dɪsˈtopiə/反乌托邦，非理想化的地方]lie ahead, futurists seem confident we can sort out congestion[不论前方是怎样一个非理想化的社会，未来主义者似乎相信我们可以解决拥堵]. If hope that technology will fix traffic springs eternal[/ɪ'tɝnl/永恒的], history suggests something different [如果希望技术将会解决川流不息车辆，历史表明了一些不同看法]. Transport innovation, from railways to cars, reshaped cities and drove economic advance[从铁路到汽车的运输创新，改造了城市，也促进了经济发展]. But it also brought crowded commutes[但是也带来了通勤拥堵]. Now, as tech firms and carmakers aim to roll out[推出] fleets of driverless cars, it is worth asking: might this time bedifferent[现在，当科技公司和汽车制造商旨在推出大量的无人驾驶汽车的时候，我们有必要问：这一次会不同吗]? Alas[/ə'læs/唉（表悲伤、遗憾、恐惧、关切等等）], artificial intelligence (AI) is unlikely to succeed where steel rails and internal-combustion engines failed[唉，在铁轨和内燃机发动机都失败的地方，人工智能是不大可能获得成功的].
More’s the pity[真是太可惜了]. In America alone, traffic congestion brings economic losses estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars each year[单是在美国，交通拥堵带来的经济损失每年估计在上千亿美元]. Such costs will rise unless existing transport systems receive badly needed investment[除非现有的运输系统收到了迫切需要的投资，这样的代价将会提高]. For example, fixing New York’s beleaguered[/bɪ'liɡɚd/处于困境的], over crowded subway will take at least $100bn, according to one recent estimate[例如，根据一项最近的估计，维修纽约存在诸多问题并且过度拥挤的地铁，将会花费至少1000亿美元]. A driverless deus ex machina[/ˌdeɪ.əs eks ˈmɑː.kɪ.nə/拉丁语词组，God from the machine，译为机器神，解围之神等]might seem to spare governments some difficult decisions[一个无人驾驶的解围之神可能会让政府免于做出一些艰难的决定].
But congestion is a near-inevitable side-effect of urban growth[但是，拥堵是城市发展的一个不可避免的副作用]. Cities exist because being near to other people brings enormous advantages[城市存在的原因是与挨着其他人带来了极大的优势]. Proximity allows people to find friends, mates and business partners, to discuss ideas and generate new ones, and to trade (and so to capture the benefits of specialisation)[近距离可以让人们找到朋友、伴侣和商业伙伴，去讨论想法、产生新的想法，并且进行交易（进而可以得到特殊化的福利）]. Regrettably, clumping leads to crowding: the more people an area houses, the greater the competition for its scarce resources, from seats at a hot new restaurant to space on publicroadways[遗憾的是，聚集带来了拥堵：一个区域住了越多的人，稀缺资源的竞争越激烈，从一家很火的新餐厅的座位到公路上的空间]. Each new arrival enhances a city’s magic but also adds tocongestion[每一位新成员提高了城市的魔力，但是也增加了拥堵]. Cities grow until costs outstrip[超过]benefits[城市一直会增长，直到成本超过了收益].
New transport technologies are not useless[新的运输科技不是无用的]. Mass-transit railways and highways allowed big cities to get bigger[铁路和高速路公共交通让大城市成为更大的城市]. But their congestion-easing benefits inevitably proved temporary[但是，它们缓解交通拥挤的好处证明是必然短暂的]. When the New York subway extended into northern Manhattan, it became practical to live far from the dirty, expensive, crowded downtown area, while still enjoying access to the city’s social and economic benefits[当纽约的地铁延伸到曼哈顿北部时，住在远离肮脏、昂贵而又拥挤的市中心的地方，同时仍旧可以享受拥有城市社会经济福利，这样的生活就变的实际]. So the city’s population rose—a lot—leaving New Yorkers once more cheek by jowl[紧挨着][因此，城市的人口增加了很多——使得纽约客更加密密匝匝地拥挤]. A post-war highway-building boom in America yielded explosive growth in city suburbs[美国战后大量高速路的修建带来了城市郊区的爆发式增长]. Cities once again found their equilibrium[/ˌiː.kwɪˈlɪb.ri.əm/均衡], however, as the suburban land rush led to road congestion, raising the cost of living far from employment centres[城市再一次找到了均衡，然而，由于郊区土地热潮导致了道路拥堵，提高了住在远离就业中心的成本].In a paper published in 2011, Gilles Duranton, of the University of Pennsylvania, and Matthew Turner, of Brown University, identified a “fundamental law of road congestion”: namely, that building more highways does not alleviate[/əˈliː.vi.eɪt/减轻缓和]congestion[在2011年发表的一篇论文中，宾夕法尼亚大学的GD和布朗大学的MT，提出了“城市拥堵的基本法则”：也就是，建更多的高速路并不会减轻拥堵]. Rather, it attracts more residents, leads to more driving by existing residents and boosts transport-intensive economic activity, until roads are once again crammed[拥挤][而是会吸引更多的居民，导致更多现有居民开车出行，并且使得运输密集的经济活动增加，直到道路再次拥挤].
Driverless cars should cut traffic, other things being equal[在其他条件相同的情况下，无人驾驶汽车可以减少交通拥挤]. Lower accident rates will mean fewer crash-related hold-ups[耽搁延误], while AIs that can pilot cars more closely together will boost road capacity[更低的事故率将意味着更少的因撞车带来的耽搁，同时，人工智能可以使驾驶汽车的间距更近，将提高道路运输量]. But reductions in traffic will make living in currently congested areas more attractive and hence morepopulous[但是，交通拥堵的缓解将使现有拥堵的区域更有吸引力，因此人口会更加密集]. Miles travelled per person might also rise, since self-driving technology frees passengers to use travel time for work or sleep[每人驾驶的英里数可能也会增加，因为自主驾驶技术使乘客从开车的时间中解放出来，让他们可以利用这段时间工作或睡觉]. And just as new highways prompt a rise in transport-intensive business, driverless vehicles could generate lots of new road-using activity[同时，由于新的高速路促进了运输密集行业的增加，无人驾驶汽车能够产生更多新的公路活动]. Where now a worker might pop into the coffee shop before going to work, for example, a latte might soon be delivered in a driverless vehicle[例如，现在的工人在上班之前可能会去咖啡店，可能不久以后一杯拿铁就可以由一辆无人驾驶汽车中送到]. The technology of driverless cars may make us safer and more productive, but not necessarily lesstraffic-bound[无人驾驶的技术可能是我们更安全也更有生产力，但是并不一定是更少的交通出行].
It might, however, improve traffic by making it easier, politically, to impose[征收]tolls on roads[然而，可以通过在政治上更简单征收公路通行费来改善交通情况]. Jams occur because a scarce resource, the road, is underpriced, so more people drive than it can accommodate[因为公路这一稀缺资源定价太低，所以更多人开车，超过了它可以容纳交通，拥堵就发生了]. But tolls could favour use of the roadway by those who value it most[但是，通行费可能比较喜欢那些最认可公价值的人使用公路]. Some places already use such charges—London and Singapore areexamples—but they are rarely popular[一些地方已经开始使用这样的收费——比如伦敦和新加坡——但是他们并不受欢迎]. Some drivers balk[犹豫]at paying for what they once got for nothing, and others are uneasy about the tracking of private vehicles that efficient pricing requires[一些司机很不情愿地为他们之前可以免费使用的资源付钱，另一些人则对跟踪私人汽车感到不安，而跟踪是高效收费所要求的]. People seem not to object to paying by the mile when they are bring driven—by taxis and services like Uber and Lyft—and the driverless programmes now being tested by Waymo and GMfollow this model[当人们乘坐出租车和使用像Uber和Lyft一样的服务时，似乎并不反对按公里收费，现在有Maymo和GM测试的无人驾驶项目正在沿用这个模式]. If a driverless world is one in which people generally buy rides rather than cars, then not only might fewer unnecessary journeys be made, but also political resistance to road-pricing could ease, and congestion with it[如果无人驾驶的世界是一个人们通常购买里程而不是汽车的世界，那么，不仅仅会有更少的不必要的出行，并且缓解了公路收费的政治抵制，同时缓解了拥堵].
Ok, commuter
That might lead to a different kind of dystopia (also with historical antecedents[/ˌæn.t̬əˈsiː.dənt/先例]): one in which fast, functional transport is available only to those who can pay[这可能会去往一个不同的非理想之地（也有历史先例）：在那里，快速实用的运输仅供那些付了钱的人使用]. Luckily, history also suggests a solution: mass transit[幸运的是，历史也给出了一个解决办法：公共交通]. Ride-hailing services might introduce multi-passenger vehicles and split travel costs across riders (they could call them “buses”)[拼车服务可能会引入多个乘客乘坐同一车辆，并在乘客中分配出行成本（乘客可以称它们们为“公共汽车”）]. Or, as Daniel Rauch and David Schleicher of Yale University argue, governments might instead co-opt[借鉴]the new transport ecosystem for their own purposes[或者，像耶鲁大学DR和DS所说的，政府可以借鉴这种新的运输生态系统达到他们自己的目的]. They might subsidise the travel of low-income workers, or take over such systems entirely (a common fate for mass-transit systems which begin life as private enterprises, including the NewYork subway)[他们可以补贴低收入工人的交通出行，或者完全接管这样的系统（开始作为私人企业对公共交通的统一收费，包括纽约地铁）]. Municipal networks of driverless cars might prove less efficient than private ones, particularly if cars are rationed[对… 实行配给]on a first-come-first-served basis rather than by price[无人驾驶汽车的市政网络可能被证实比私人企业更为低效，尤其汽车是在先到先得的基础上实现配给，而不是价格]. But in the past city governments have felt that providing equal-opportunity access to centres of economic activity was worth the cost[但是，在过去，城市政府感到为可以参与市中心的经济活动提供相同的机会是值得这样的代价].
Should congestion prove ineradicable[不能根除的]in a driverless world, people will continue to hope for technological solutions, like the long-promised flying cars[如果在无人驾驶的世界拥堵经验证无法根除，人们将继续对技术方法寄予希望，比如早就承诺的飞行汽车]. While we wait for that—and the clotted skyways that would soon follow—governments would be wise to keep their underground systems in good working order[当我们等待这些时——以及不久随之而来的空中拥堵——政府应该明智的维持地下系统良好运转].
Jan 26 | 967 words
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我是Eva
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