读Geopolitical Alpha（七）——Politics

倒数第二部分是MVT in a Vote-less Nation，自己体会吧。作者上了一张图：

中等收入陷阱的背后，到底是什么呢？

Since 2017, Chinese policymakers have undertaken a set of painful structural reforms. At a time when the developed world is moving toward the Buenos Aires Consensus – a fancy way of saying populism – Beijing has enacted financial and macroprudential reforms that constrain growth.

作者说：

However, at the time of writing, they have remained stubbornly committed to ensuring that real estate prices do not rise.

为什么？如果不这么做：

it would create a longer-term political risk.

从图中来看，我兔现在的位置是：

如何看待？

While to the global West, political centralization and economic liberalization are unpalatable – and even illogical – this combination is familiar to academia. Samuel Huntington’s 1968 Political Order in Changing Societies warns against too-rapid political liberalization amid economic and social modernity because it could lead to collapse.

作者的大胆预测，MVT中的中产阶级诉求，会带来：

It will retreat inward and back off from its competition with the US.

结论，我兔的首要限制因素是如何逃脱拉美化的中等收入陷阱，千万不要威逼过于急迫：

If the US pushes Beijing too hard on trade and the economy, it will threaten the primary directive for China: escaping the middle-income trap. And that is when Beijing would have to respond with aggression.

最后的小节是本章总结，不赘述。