Why has China’s stimulus been so

DAY 65 Why has China’s stimulus been so stingy?

stimulus  刺激政策

stingy   /ˈstɪndʒi/   mean
not given or giving willingly; not generous, especially with money

The lingering threat of covid-19 forestalls a bigger stimulus

lingering   /ˈlɪŋɡərɪŋ/
​slow to end or disappear

forestall   /fɔːˈstɔːl/    
to prevent something from happening or somebody from doing something by doing something first
 v.预先阻止; 在(他人)之前行动; 先发制人; 

Editor’s note: On April 17th China announced that GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2019, compared with the same period last year, and that retail sales fell by 16% in March, again compared with the year before

1 Golden eagle world is a glistening monument to commerce, a nine-storey mall with endless stores and restaurants, virtual-reality arcades and spas, even a zoo. But it is now trying something more basic, setting up food stalls outside to drum up business. Although China is back to work, customers have been slow to return. The giant mall in the eastern city of Nanjing has used giveaways and promotions, all to limited effect. “We’ve got to be prepared for a protracted war,” says one of its executives.

Golden eagle world  南京金鹰世界

glisten  /ˈɡlɪsn/
​(of something wet) to shine

arcade   /ɑːˈkeɪd/
1> a covered passage with arches along the side of a row of buildings (usually a row of shops)
2>  a large building with a number of shops in it

spa   /spɑː/
​a place where water with minerals in it, which is considered to be good for your health, comes up naturally out of the ground; the name given to a town that has such a place and where there are, or were, places where people could drink the water

food stall
stall 小摊位

drum up 吸引
to try hard to get support or business

protracted   /prəˈtræktɪd/  =prolonged
​lasting longer than expected or longer than usual

executive  /ɪɡˈzekjətɪv/
a group of people who run a company or an organization

2 Most in China would recognise the term “protracted war”. It is a reference to Mao’s strategy for fighting Japan’s invading army in the 1930s: be patient and, little by little, wear the enemy down. It also happens to be a good description for the government’s approach to bringing the economy back from the coronavirus shutdown. It is shaping up to be a long, grinding battle, not a rapid victory.

protracted war    持久（消耗）战;

wear  down
1>  to become, or make something become, gradually smaller or smoother through continuous use or rubbing
2>  to make somebody/something weaker or less determined, especially by continuously attacking or putting pressure on them or it over a period of time
v. 磨损；使疲劳；使厌烦；损耗；由于坚持而克服…的反对，逐渐克服；说服

shutdown   /ˈʃʌtdaʊn/   n. 关机；停工；关门；停播
​the act of closing a factory or business or stopping a large machine from working, either temporarily or permanently

grinding    /ˈɡraɪndɪŋ/
1>  ​(of a difficult situation) that never ends or improves
2>  (of a sound) rough and unpleasant to listen to

shape up to be塑造成  
grinding battle  苦战

3 Growth in the first quarter compared with the prior year, reported after The Economist went to press, was expected to be negative—China’s first official contraction in more than four decades. In the past this would have guaranteed a big stimulus. Yet this time its response has been more restrained. Other countries have announced huge spending packages. Why has China been so stingy?

contraction   收紧；收缩
1>  the process of becoming smaller    <反> expansion
2>   a sudden and painful contracting of muscles, especially the muscles around a woman’s womb, that happens when she is giving birth to a child
3>  a short form of a word

spending packages  一整套经济刺激方案

4 There are two critical things to note. First, appearances are somewhat deceptive; a closer look reveals similarities between China’s economic policy response and those of other countries. Second, China would like to do more, but the lingering covid-19 threat is holding it back.

 appearances are somewhat deceptive  
表面上看起来有欺骗性。

hold back  = handicap/ stop/  压制

5 Start with the obvious contrasts between China’s actions and those of other governments. Japan’s fiscal stimulus, for instance, is around 10% of its gdp, and rises to twice that when loans and loan guarantees are included. China, meanwhile, has made no special announcement, instead rolling out a hodgepodge of policies that, added up, reach perhaps 3% of its gdp.

fiscal    /ˈfɪskl/
connected with government or public money, especially taxes

loans and loan guarantees   贷款及贷款保证

roll out   滚出; 离开; 展开; 起床;
1>  ​to make something flat by pushing something over it
2>  ​to officially make a new product available or start a new political campaign =  launch

hodgepodge ˈhɒdʒpɒdʒ/   大杂烩
​a number of things mixed together without any particular order or reason

6 Many governments are using new tools to help struggling businesses. Corporate bail-outs have been a core element. America has earmarked $850bn for loans to companies. Britain set aside £330bn ($412bn) for loan guarantees. China, by comparison, does not need such fiscal parachutes. They are built into the system: as much as 80% of corporate loans go to state firms and hence already enjoy implicit guarantees.

 bail-out   帮助某人摆脱困境；救市
1>  to escape from a situation that you no longer want to be involved in
2>  ​to empty water from something by lifting it out with your hand or a container
3>  to pay somebody’s bail for them
4>  ​to rescue somebody from a difficult situation

 bail /beɪl/
n.保释金; 保释; 三柱门上的横木;v.允许保释(某人); (尤指迅速地) 离开; 与…搭讪(常指对方不愿意);

embark   /ɪmˈbɑːk/
​to get onto a ship or plane; to put somebody/something onto a ship or plane
embark on/upon
​(formal) to start to do something new or difficult

set aside 
1>  to save or keep money, time, land, etc. for a particular purpose
2>  to not consider something, because other things are more important =disregard
3>  ​(law) to officially state that a decision made by a court is not legally acceptable

7 China, without any fanfare, is in fact leaning on state-owned banks. The total amount of new credit issued last month was equivalent to 5% of last year’s gdp—the highest for any month since 2010, the tail-end of a giant stimulus. Arrangements are often discreet. The Golden Eagle executive says that in late February a group of bankers came to the mall to determine which tenants they could prop up.

without any fanfare  没有那些五花八门的措施
 fanfare  /ˈfænfeə(r)/
a short loud piece of music that is played to celebrate

tail-end  /ˌteɪl ˈend/
​the very last part of something
上一轮大型经济刺激方案的卫生

discreet   /dɪˈskriːt/  =tactful
careful in what you say or do, in order to keep something secret or to avoid causing difficulty for somebody or making them feel embarrassed

tenant   /ˈtenənt/
​a person who pays rent for the use of a room, building, land, etc. to the person who owns it

 prop up  = shore up     架; 搁; 靠; 支撑; 维持;
to prevent something from falling by putting something under it to support it

8 With such backstops in place, the financial fallout from the outbreak has been limited so far. The peak-to-trough drop in China’s stockmarket was 16%, less than half of America’s plunge. Credit spreads exploded in Western bond markets; in China they have barely widened (see chart). Defaults have been rare. In the past two months just four companies missed bond payments in China for the first time, less than half as many as during the same period last year. “In the bad times you see more advantages of the system,” says Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank.

backstop   /ˈbækstɒp/
1> a fence or screen used to stop balls from going outside the playing area
2>  something that is done or prepared in advance in order to prevent worse problems if something goes wrong

peak-to-trough  峰值到谷底
trough   /trɒf/
1>  a long, narrow open container for animals to eat or drink from
2>  ​a period of time when the level of something is low, especially a time when a business or the economy is not growing

America’s plunge  熔断
plunge /plʌndʒ/   大幅跳水
1> to move or make somebody/something move suddenly forwards and/or downwards
2>  (of prices, temperatures, etc.) to decrease suddenly and quickly = plummet

Credit spreads 信用利差
信用利差也称为质量利差(quality spread),是指除了信用等级不同，其他所有方面都相同的两种债券收益率之间的差额，它代表了仅仅用于补偿信用风险而增加的收益率。

Default   /dɪˈfɔːlt/  坏账/违约

9 But make no mistake. This is still a major departure from China’s customary largesse. A typical stimulus policy—variations of which were seen in 2009, 2012 and 2016—would involve some combination of a surge in infrastructure spending, incentives to spur consumption, and loosened restrictions on the property market. All have been conspicuously absent so far.

But make no mistake.  但是不要误会

customary largesse  
customary  惯常；通常的
largesse    /lɑːˈdʒes/  慷慨的赠与
​the act or quality of being generous with money; money that you give to people who have less than you

spur 激励=incentive
spur n 马刺  v激励

 property market.  地产

10 In part this reflects a newfound prudence. Given China’s heavy debt load, economic authorities have fought to rein in leverage and snuff out financial risks over the past few years. They are loth to see their progress undone. But there is also a more important reason for restraint. Many economists in China have come to the conclusion that it is simply too soon for an all-out push to revive growth.

In part   在某种程度上，部分地； 一半；
prudence     ['pru:dns]  n.谨慎； 节俭； 精明； 
fought  英[fɔːt]

rein in    v.放慢，止住，控制； 勒； 扐；

snuff out   [snʌf aut
v.扼杀，消灭，死掉； 杀； 消灭（ 某人）； 熄灭（火焰） 突然结束；

be loth to  [ləʊθ]  adj.不乐意的; 不情愿的; 勉强的;

undone  ʌnˈdʌn 
adj.未扣; 未系; 未完成; 完蛋; 一蹶不振; 无出头之日;

 restraint   英[rɪˈstreɪnt]   n.约束力; 管制措施
 come to the conclusion    得出结论;

all-out    adj.全力以赴的;

revive  [rɪˈvaɪv]   v.(使) 苏醒，复活; 重新使用; 使重做; 重新上演;

11 Peng Wensheng, chief economist with Everbright Securities, a brokerage, wrote in a recent essay that the unknowns of covid-19 mean that policy is sure to be wrong. If the government is overly optimistic about the pandemic, it will stoke the economy too soon, forcing it to backtrack. If overly pessimistic, it will wait too long to ease curbs, requiring more stimulus later on. The risks, he concluded, were asymmetric: it would be far better to defer the rebound than to reimpose lockdowns. Mr Yu puts it more bluntly. “Until the pandemic is under control, the main objective is survival,” he says.

Everbright Securities, 光大证券
chief economist   首席经济学家
brokerage  /ˈbrəʊkərɪdʒ/   n.经纪业务;

the business of being a broker

unknowns  不确定性

is sure to be 

stoke   /stəʊk/
1>  stoke something (up) (with something) to add fuel to a fire, etc.  
2>  ​stoke something (up) to make something increase or develop more quickly 刺激

backtrack   /ˈbæktræk/
to go back along the same route that you have just come along

curb  /kɜːb/   n 
1>  ​curb (on something) 
something that controls and puts limits on something

stimulus 

asymmetric  <反>  symmetric

defer    英[dɪˈfɜː(r)]  推迟=put off / delay
defer (doing) something
to delay something until a later time 

 bluntly /ˈblʌntli/
​in a very direct way, without trying to be polite or kind

12 Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of cebm, an advisory firm, adds that stimulus will be more effective when global supply chains are up and running—an argument that no country, not even one as big as China, can get too far ahead of the rest of the world.

up and running  恢复正常

argument   前面人讲的话

13 In practice China’s economy is undergoing a daily stress test. The authorities are letting more activity resume, probing the limits of what is safe and how comfortable people feel. At Golden Eagle World, managers had hoped for a full recovery by now. Instead, business is still as much as 20% below normal, a gloomy portent for the economy. Such are the uncertainties that China’s leaders have not yet declared an economic-growth target for this year, a figure that normally serves as a lodestar for officials up and down the country.

resume   /rɪˈzjuːm/
1>  if you resume an activity, or if it resumes, it begins again or continues after being interrupted
2>  resume your seat/place/position to go back to the seat or place that you had before

portent   /ˈpɔːtent/  = omen （ ​a sign of what is going to happen in the future ）
​a sign or warning of something that is going to happen in the future, especially when it is something unpleasant 

gloomy   /ˈɡluːmi/  = depressing
​nearly dark, or badly lit in a way that makes you feel sad

lodestar  /ˈləʊdstɑː(r)/ 北极星；目标
1> ​the Pole Star (= a star that is used by sailors to guide a ship)​
2> (formal) a person or principle that guides somebody’s behaviour or actions

  serves as a lodestar for officials up and down the country.
中国上下官员的工作指引

14 The uncertainty touches even basic matters, such as whether to eat in restaurants. Last month Nanjing launched a campaign to encourage residents to leave their homes, handing out 318m yuan ($45m) in shopping vouchers. But signs around the city still admonish people to avoid crowds and stay in well-ventilated spaces. The pandemic descended on China and the world suddenly—but its shadow will take much longer to disappear.

voucher   /ˈvaʊtʃə(r)/  n 
​a printed piece of paper that can be used instead of money to pay for something, or that allows you to pay less than the usual price of something

admonish   /ədˈmɒnɪʃ/  v = reprove
1> admonish somebody (for something/for doing something) | + speech 
to tell somebody strongly and clearly that you do not approve of something that they have done
2>  ​admonish somebody (to do something)
 to strongly advise somebody to do something
v.责备; 告诫; 警告; 力劝; 忠告;

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