德国的人口问题（之三）

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With the odds seemingly stacked against it, Bitterfeld-Wolfen is at least trying. On a whirlwind tour of the town, Mr Schenk shows how the old coal mine was turned into a lake with a new marina and a promenade. He repeats the town’s mantra: “It’s all about offering good-quality life and leisure.” A brochure shows pictures of smiling children, yachts and tennis. Bitterfeld-Wolfen, it reads, is “one of the youngest cities in Germany”. But even if such marketing did stem departures (and in 2015, for the first time, inward migration slightly exceeded the outflow) the town is still shrinking; more than twice as many die each year as are born.

尽管困难重重，比特菲尔德-沃尔芬至少尽力尝试了。在匆匆参观小城的过程中，申克先生展示了一个由废弃煤矿改造而成的湖泊。湖边还新修了一个小码头和一条漫步大道。他反复提及城市的口号：“我们只为您提供品质生活和休闲”。一本宣传册上印着孩子的笑脸、游艇和网球。上面还写着比特菲尔德-沃尔芬是德国最年轻的城市之一。尽管这样的营销确实阻止了人口的流失（2015年流入人口首次略超过流出的人口），这个小城的人口仍在萎缩，因为每年死亡的人口是出生人口的两倍多。

Across many parts of rural Europe mayors struggle with similar problems, wondering when to turn their school into a care home. By 2050 Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Spain—which, unlike Germany, have all suffered net brain-drains—will be older than Germany by median age and will have shrunk substantially, according to the UN. Ageing and emigration are likely further to dampen growth in central and southern European countries, says the IMF. It calculates that by 2030 GDP per person in several countries may be 3-4% lower than it would have been without emigration.

在欧洲许多农村，市长们也为类似的问题烦恼，琢磨着如何将本地的学校改成养老院。据联合国预测，以年龄中位数计，到2050年，希腊、意大利、波兰、葡萄牙、西班牙的老龄化程度将超过德国，人口也将大幅度萎缩（这些国家和德国不同，均遭遇了人才的净外流）。国际货币基金组织称，老龄化和人口外流将会进一步抑制中欧和南欧国家的经济增长。据其估算，到2030年，假设没有人口外流，一些国家的GDP可能还要低3-4%。

Where Bitterfeld-Wolfen goes…

比特菲尔德-沃尔芬何去何从？

In Germany, however, the consequences are particularly acute. With a strong economy and a tight labour market, some employers already struggle to fill vacancies. BCG, a consultancy, predicts that by 2030 the country will be short of between 5m and 7m workers. The triple shock of a smaller workforce, increased social spending and the likely dampening effect of an older workforce on innovation and productivity will drag down future growth, predicts Oliver Holtemöller of the Leipzig Institute for Economic Research. These effects are stronger in the east, he adds. Productivity is 20% lower than in the west; the ageing population and continuing migration to the west will make economic convergence even less likely.

但是在德国，这些问题的后果尤其严重。由于经济强劲，劳动力供不应求，许多雇主已经很难找到人填补空缺。波士顿咨询公司预测到2030年，德国的劳动力市场将出现500到700万的缺口。莱比锡经济研究院的奥利弗·霍尔特莫勒预测，劳动人口减少、社会支出增加和劳动力老龄化给创新和生产率带来的抑制效应这三重冲击会拖累未来的经济增长。而这些影响在德国东部更加深远。东部的生产率比西部低30%，人口老龄化和持续向西部迁移会让经济平衡更加难以实现。