W5-Global monetary policy: He st
Global monetarypolicy
He still has your back
Shuffle upand deal—low interest rates are still “the only game in town”
shuffle up匆忙拼凑；草草作成：
to shuffle up atreaty
匆忙拼凑了一份条约
the only game in town :(非正式)最好的
AT ITSoutset, 2017 seemedlikely to mark a turning-point for global monetary policy.
outset:at/from
the outset (of sth)at/from the beginning (of sth)开端;开始:At the outset of her career she was full of optimism but not now.她事业伊始十分乐观,但现在已今非昔比了.
The Federal Reserve had just raised its main interestrate by a quarter-point and was expected to add three such increases this year—orperhaps even more, if a new Republican Congress could agree on tax cuts with anew Republican president.
main interest rate：基准利率
In that case, low interest rates would no longer be the “only game in town” in terms of policy stimulus. The European Central Bank (ECB) would begin towind downits programme of quantitative easing, orQE, probably bymid-year.
wind-downn.逐渐减少
The Bank of Japan would cut back onQE, too. In September it set a target yield for ten-year bonds, of 0.0%, which would probably require fewer asset purchases.
cut back If you cut back something such as expenditure or cut back on it, you reduce it.
Of the global giants, only China seemed likely to keep its policy settings as loose as in 2016.
In this context, theECB’s meeting on June7th and 8th was not long agoeyedaspivotal.
eye[Tn, Tn.pr] (a) observe or watch (sb/sth) in the specified way以所述方式观察或观看（某人[某事物]）:He eyed me with suspicion.他怀疑地看着我.
pivotal A pivotal role, point or figure in something is one that is very important and affects the success of that thing.
The bank’s staff would produce new,upbeateconomic forecasts.
upbeat adj(fig比喻) optimistic or cheerful 乐观的;快乐的.
ManyECB-watchers (and maybe some of its governing council)reckoned it might signal the “tapering” ofQE.
tapering：gradual decrease of force, capacity, etc.
That now looks unlikely. Figures this week showed that underlying inflation fell to 0.9% in April, well short of the ECB’s target of below-but-close- to 2%.
well short of：远低于
On May 29th Mario Draghi, the ECB’s boss (pictured),told the European Parliament that the bank was “firmly convinced” that an“extraordinary amount” of monetary support was still needed.
Elsewhere, too, things are not going entirely to plan.The Fed raised interest rates in March and is widely expected to do so again in June. But thereafter markets have priced in little in the way of further increases.
Price： vt.定价
in the way of：在……方面
And few other central banks are following its lead.Indeed several have cut rates. Mr Draghi’s ECB is not alone in its taper caution.The pace of the Bank of Japan’s purchases has not fallen much. The balance-sheets of these three central banks, in aggregate, are still expanding. They are unlikely to start shrinking until 2019. Abroad measure of rich-world monetary conditions compiled by Morgan Stanley, which incorporates short-term interest rates, bond yields, share prices and other variables, suggests that monetary policy is becoming looser, if anything (see chart).
if anything:若有任何不同的话or something:或什么的(表示说话者不能肯定)
The wild card is still China—but in an unexpected way;banks’ borrowing has in fact been squeezed. But even there, the authorities are keen not to go too far.
Central banks are treading carefully in part because of low inflation.
tread v(pt trod /trɔd; trɑd/,pp trodden/ˈtrɔdn; ˋtrɑdn/ or trod)
[I, Ipr]~ (on, etc sth/sb)(a) set one's foot down; walk or step踩;行走;踏:
Headline rates of inflation have risen this year, but largely because of higher oil prices.
Headline rates of inflation：整体通胀
Price indices that exclude volatile food and energy costs tell a different story. The underlying rate on the index preferred by the Fed fell to 1.5% in April, for instance. But monetary policy also reflects the specific risks to financial stability in America, Europe and China. The goals of stable inflation and steady finance are not always compatible. For instance, the ECB’s benchmark deposit rate is negative: ie, it charges commercial banks for holding deposits with it. The result is a check on banks’ profits. The ECB’s judgment has been that the positive effect of negative rates on the economy is worth the risks. The Bank of Japan also has a negative deposit rate, but is kinder to banks: its policy of “yield-curve control” ensures that long-term interest rates are higher than short-term ones,which helps banks make profits.
Yet the main risk highlighted in the ECB’s recent Financial Stability Review is a sudden rise in bond yields. A hasty withdrawal of QE could plausibly set off such a change, especially in countries such as Italy with large public-debt burdens.
hasty/ˈheɪstɪ; ˋhestɪ/adj said, made or done quickly or too quickly;hurried急急忙忙的;过於匆忙的;仓促完成的:a hasty departure匆匆忙忙的离去
set off：When you set off, you start a journey.
That is one more reason for the ECB to go slow. In contrast, China, where debt has risen from 150% of GDP in 2007 to 280% in 2016, faces a dicier trade-off.
dicey[ˈdaɪsɪ]adj.-ier, -iest冒险的；投机的；不确定的
It is trying to tackle dangers in the financial system without slowing down the economy unduly.
unduly adv more than is right or proper;excessively不当地;过分地;过度地
The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, has not raised its benchmark one-year lending rate, currently 4.35%—the way it has tightened monetary policy in the past. Instead, it has been stingier in supplying short-term liquidity to banks.
stingy[ˈstɪndʒɪ]adj.-gier, -giest吝啬的；小气的
Seven-day interest rates in the volatile inter bank market have gone up by about half a percentage point since February, to around 3%. The goal is to restrict funding from China’s big, state owned banks to so-called“shadow banks” that use the inter bank market to finance risky lending.
China’s bank regulator has added to the squeeze. It has clamped down on irregular or complex transactions in the inter bank market, and on ruses used by banks to increase leverage.
clamp down 严禁To clamp down on people or activities means to take strong official action to stop or control them.(JOURNALISM)
The authorities have tried to limit the potential damage to the economy: by giving banks liquidity for medium- term loans; and through state-directed finance for infrastructure by “policy banks”, such as the China Development Bank. But a broad measure of credit growth hasslipped, from around 16% in 2016 to14.5%, according to Morgan Stanley. It might decline further, to 13%, by the end of the year.GDPgrowth will also slow.
Slip：reduction in values, prices, etc（价值﹑价格等的）降低,下降.
The Fed faces no such conflict. It is raisinginterest rates for standard reasons: to head off excessive inflation.
head off If you head something off,especially something unpleasant, you take action before it is expected to happen in order to prevent it from happening.
He would ask Congress to intervene and head off a strike.
Financial risks are quite low down its list of worries.In a speech on May 30th, Lael Brainard, a member of the Fed’s board of governors, noted mild concern about the car-loan market and corporate debt. But in general, finance was stable, shesaid. House prices are aligned with rents, in contrast to the mid-2000s;
mid-2000s：20世纪中期
stock markets are dear but less so than in the late 1990s.
dear：[usu pred通常作表语] (Brit) expensive昂贵
Her main concern was not that equity prices are frothy but that weak inflation might persist. She noted that the underlying rate is falling and wage growth is not picking up, despite lower unemployment.
frothy： A frothy liquid has lots of bubbles on its surface.
Though most market participants expect theFed to increase the target range on its main interest rate on June 16th byanother quarter-point to 1-1.25%, the markets are pricing in very little beyondthat. Investors are betting that the federal-funds rate will be just 1.5% atthe end of 2018. If the Fed lives up to the median forecast of its rate settingcommittee, the rateby thenshould be 2.25%.
median/ˈmiːdɪən; ˋmidɪən/adj(mathematics数) situated in or passing through the middle 在中间的;通过中点的:a median point, line, value中点﹑中线﹑中值.
But sluggish inflation may well force a rethink. In any event, the Fed has prepared the ground for a reduction in its balance-sheet, to begin soon. As things stand,the Fed reinvests the proceeds of maturing bonds, but the plan is to allow a fixed amount of those to run off. Initially the cap would be set at a low level (as little as $12bn a month on one reckoning) and would gradually increase every quarter. Economists at JP Morgan Chase reckon that shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet by$1.5trn would eventually push up ten-year yields by 0.25%.
But the Fed is likely to move so slowly that the effect will be barely perceptible.
Since the plans wereoutlined, the yield on ten-yearTreasuriescontinued to fall, reaching 2.2%, down from a recentpeak of 2.6% in March.
Treasuries：国库券；公债券
In large part, falling bond yields reflect a growing conviction that short-term interest rates are unlikely to rise quickly or soon.
Central banks are fearful of cutting short the synchronised global economic upswing and, with inflation quiescent, see no real need to take the risk.
synchronize make synchronous and adjust in time or manner同步发生
upswing/ˈʌpswɪŋ; ˋʌpˏswɪŋ/n~ (in sth)(esp sudden) upward movement or trend; improvement（尤指突然的）向上的运动或倾向;上涨;改进
quiescent adj(fml文) inactive; passive; quiet不活动的;被动的;静止的
They are buying lots of assets: the ECB and Bank of Japan are acquiring more; the Fed is still reinvesting. In short, little is afoot to upset the bull-market mood: “They’ve still got your back”, is the message that investors are taking from central banks, says David Riley, of Blue Bay Asset Management.
afoot [əˈfʊt]adv., adj.准备中（的）；酝酿中（的）
There is a plan afoot to pull down the old building so asto widen the street.
现正计划拆除这幢旧大楼以拓宽马路
Global stock markets are buoyant. The cost of short- and long-term borrowing remains low by any standards. The dollar hasretreated. In the broadest terms, financialconditions are easy. The global upswing is still receiving plenty of supportfrom central banks. An extraordinary amount, in fact.
buoyant/ˈbɔɪənt; ˋbɔɪənt/ adj of stock-market prices, etc)tending to rise（指证券市场的价格等）看涨的:Share prices were buoyant today in active trading.今日股票交投活跃,价格看涨.
retreat(esp of an army, etc) withdraw after being defeated or when faced with danger or difficulty（尤指军队等）（战败後或面临危险或困难时）撤退,退却
导图：
对“减少、增加”的总结
wind down :逐渐减少
The European Central Bank (ECB) would begin towind downits programme of quantitative easing, orQE, probably bymid-year.
cut back on :If you cut back something such as expenditure or cutback on it, you reduce it.
The Bank of Japan would cut back on QE, too
tapering：gradual decrease of force, capacity, etc.
Many ECB-watchers (and maybe some of its governing council) reckoned it might signal the “tapering” of QE.
Raise…
TheFed raised interest rates in March and is widely expected to do so again in June.
Cut
Indeed several have cut rates.
expand
The balance-sheets of these three central banks, in aggregate, are still expanding.
shrink
They are unlikely to start shrinking until 2019.
squeeze
banks’ borrowing has in fact been squeezed
rise
Headlinerates of inflation have risen this year.
Fall to
The underlying rate on the index preferred by the Fed fell to 1.5% in April, for instance.
Go up by
Seven-dayinterest rates in the volatile interbank market have gone up by about half apercentage point since February, to around 3%.
Slip:reduction in values, prices, etc（价值﹑价格等的）降低,下降.
Buta broad measure of credit growth hasslipped,from around 16% in 2016 to14.5%, according to MorganStanley.
decline
It might decline further, to 13%, by the end of the year.
fall
the underlying rate is falling and wage growth is not picking up.
pick up
the underlying rate is falling and wage growth is not picking up.
Push up by
Economists at JP Morgan Chase reckon that shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet by$1.5trn would eventually push up ten-year yields by 0.25%.
Falling: adj.
falling bond yields reflect a growing conviction that short-term interest rates are unlikely to rise quickly or soon.
