巴菲特1969年十月信（六）。2024-12-13
英文早读第150篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
(6) The rather startling conclusion is that under today's historically unusual conditions, passive investment in tax-free bonds is likely to be fully the equivalent of expectations from professionally managed money in stocks, and only modestly inferior to extremely well-managed equity money.
（6）相当令人吃惊的结论是在今天这种历史罕见的情况下，被动投资在免税债券上似乎和专业股票管理资金的预期差不多，仅仅稍微比十分优秀管理的资金弱一点。
(7) A word about inflation - it has very little to do with the above calculation except that it enters into the 6% assumed growth rate in GNP and contributes to the causes producing 6-1/2% on tax-free bonds. If stocks should 8% after tax and bonds 4%, stocks are better to own than bonds, regardless of whether prices go up, down or sidewise. The converse is true if bonds produce 6-1/2% after tax and stocks 6%. The simple truth, of course, is that the best expectable after-tax rate of return makes the most sense - giving a rising, declining or stable dollar.
（7）讲一下通货膨胀——他和上面这些计算几乎没有关系，只是被纳入了假设的6%国民生产总值增速和由此促进产生了6.5%免税债券。如果股票是税后8%而债券4%，拥有股票比债券更好，无论这个物价上涨、下跌或者横盘。反过来也是对的如果债券产生税后6.5%而股票是6%。当然很简单的事实是最好的可预期的税后回报率最有意义——不论美元是增长、下跌或稳定。
All of above should be viewed with all the suspicion properly accorded to assessments of the future. It does seem to me to be the most realistic evaluation of what is always an uncertain future - I present it with no great feeling regarding its approximate accuracy, but only so you will know what I think at this time.
以上这些都应该抱着对未来评估所应有的合理怀疑来看待。确实对我来说这是对经常不确定的未来最切合实际的评估——我呈现这些是，对他大概的准确度并没有很大把握，但仅仅是为了你可以知道我此时在想什么。
You will have to make your own decision as between bonds and stocks and, if the latter, who advises you on such stocks. In many cases, I think the decision should largely reflect your tangible and intangible (temperamental) needs for regularity of income and absence of large principal fluctuation, perhaps balanced against psychic needs for some excitement and the fun associated with contemplating and perhaps enjoying really juicy results. If you would like to talk over the problem with me, I will be very happy to help.
你将自己做出在债券和股票之间的决定，如果是后者，还要决定谁将建议你持有哪些股票。在很多情况下，我认为这个觉得会很大程度反应你有形和无形（反复无常的）的对稳定收入和避免大幅波动的需求，或许还要权衡心理上对一些兴奋和愉悦的需求，甚至是深思熟虑并享受真正丰厚的结果。如果你在这些困难上想和我谈谈，我很高兴可以帮助你。
Sincerely,
Warren E. Buffett
热情地，
沃伦E巴菲特
39.startling：惊人的；让人震惊的；极鲜亮的
40.modestly：谨慎的；适度的
41.inflation：通货膨胀；通胀率
42.suspicion：怀疑；猜疑；嫌疑
43.tangible：有形的；实际的；有形资产
44.temperamental：喜怒无常的；气质的；反复无常的
45.regularity：规律性；经常性；端正
46.contemplating：考虑；深思；苦思冥想
47.juicy：有趣的；报酬丰厚的；令人满足的
