The Guardian view on Europe after Brexit: unity is strength

卫报就英国脱欧后的欧洲发表观点：团结就是力量

These are strange and somewhat disorientating times for the European Union. A multipolar world in which China’s influence grows, and Donald Trump’s United States is at best an erratic ally, has created new dilemmas and dangers. Closer to home, Brexit, whatever eventual form it takes, is already transforming the political landscape. For the 27 remaining EU member states, life without Britain truly begins this week. And the first problem to be solved is money.

欧盟正处于前所未有的混乱时期。中国的影响力正在扩大，唐纳德·特朗普领导的美国充其量是个不靠谱的盟友，这个多极世界已经出现了新的困境和危险。无论英国以何种形式脱欧，欧洲的政治形势都在悄然生变。 欧盟其他27个成员国本周正式迎来了没有英国的生活，他们首当其冲需要解决的问题是钱。

At a special summit on Thursday, called by the new European council president Charles Michel, discussions will begin in earnest over the shape of the EU budget from 2021 to 2027. They will be conducted in the absence of one of the biggest contributors to the collective pot. Taking place every seven years, these negotiations are fraught at the best of times; this round is likely to be the most difficult in the EU’s history. Its progress will provide a litmus test of the union’s ability to fashion a successful, confident strategy in challenging circumstances.

由欧洲理事会主席夏尔·米歇尔召集的特别峰会将于本周四(2月20日)召开，旨在确定2021-2027的欧盟预算。峰会在没有英国的情况下进行，此前英国是欧盟最大出资国。峰会每7年召开一次，即使在最好的情况下，谈判也充满了困难。这次谈判很可能是欧盟历史上最困难的一次。峰会的进展将考验欧盟是否有能力，在充满极端困难的情况下制定成功与自信的战略。

The loss of the UK’s annual contributions has left Brussels with a financial shortfall of around £62bn. In stark terms, that means that each country will have to pay more into the pot in future. The questions of how much more, and on what, have already become the source of divisions which could deepen existing antagonisms between east and west and north and south.

失去英国每年的资助，布鲁塞尔的资金缺口大概是620亿英镑。简单来说，那意味着每个成员国未来将要缴纳更多的会费。要多缴多少，在哪些方面多缴，这些问题已经成为分歧的源头，可能加深东南西北之间的对立情绪。

A so-called “frugal” faction, represented by prosperous countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, is calling for the budget to be capped at 1% of EU gross national income, with a new spending emphasis on areas such as tech innovation and migration. The richer countries are also resisting calls by Mr Michel to phase out rebates to the largest net contributors to the budget. Poorer member states are demanding more money and more focus on traditional goals such as regional development and agricultural subsidies. Crucially, the rise of nationalist politics is informing both sides of the argument: Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, for example, presents regional redistribution of European funds to the east as just compensation for multinational profits routinely funnelled back to the west; in the more well-heeled corners of Europe, the popularity of far-right parties such as the Sweden Democrats and the FvD in the Netherlands fuels the calls for slimmed-down payments to the union’s poorer relations. In one position paper, the “frugals” warn that “placing an ever-increasing financial burden on a small number of member states will not be acceptable to our citizens”.

荷兰、丹麦和瑞典等节俭派(预算净出资国)要求财政预算总额占全体成员国国民总收入(GNI)的比例不高于1%，并且在预算分配上应重点考虑技术创新、移民领域。米歇尔关于逐步取消向最大净出资国预算返还回扣的呼吁也遭到一些富裕国家抵制。一些欠发达国家则要求更高的预算规模，并且要求将重点放在促进区域发展和维持农业补贴等传统项目上。至关重要的是，民族主义政治的崛起使争论双方各有各的道理，例如：匈牙利首相维克多·奥尔班(Viktor Orbán)把欧洲资金对东方的资金再分配描述成跨国公司利润流回西方的补偿。而在欧洲较为富裕的地区，瑞典民主党和荷兰民主论坛党等极右翼政党的盛行，引发人们减少对欧盟较差关系国报酬的呼吁。

In normal times, Germany could be expected to act as an anchor of stability amid such turbulent waters. But Angela Merkel’s government also finds itself looking over its shoulder at nationalists.

在一份立场文件中，“节俭国家”警告说：“不断增涨的财政负担集中到少数成员国身上，将不为我们的公民所接受”。通常情况下，在这样的动荡局势中，德国都有望成为“定海神针”。但是，安格拉·默克尔政府发现自己也在提防民族主义者的侵害。

Last week Mrs Merkel’s successor as chair of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, stepped down, ushering in a period of unpredictable transition on the German right. Her resignation followed a decision by CDU politicians in the eastern state of Thuringia to break the taboo on forming alliances with the far-right Eurosceptic party Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD). Chancellor Merkel has already announced her intention not to stand for office again in elections due in 2021, although that contest might now come sooner. As it seeks to elect a new leader, the CDU thus faces its own period of soul-searching on whether it should tack to the nationalist right in order to see off the AfD threat.

上周默克尔的继任者，安妮格雷特·克兰普·卡伦鲍尔（Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer）宣布辞去基民盟（德国最大的政党）主席一职，这使得德国右翼迎来一段始料未及的过渡期。在她辞职之前，东部图林根州的基民盟政治家们就已经决定打破与AfD(德国的极右翼政党德国新选择党)结盟的禁忌。默克尔总理已经宣布2021年不再寻求连任，尽管选举时间可能会提前。因此，基民盟在选取自己的领导人时也面临着取舍，即是否应该抓住民族主义的权利以抵御AfD的威胁.

The world needs a flourishing EU which can unite around common goals. Among the subjects up for discussion, for example, in this week’s summit, is the £100bn “green deal” designed to subsidise less wealthy member states on the path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. It would be lamentable if this initiative succumbed to a new politics of division. In the age of Trump and the rise of China, it also falls to Europe to make the case for economic cooperation and compromise and lead the way on issues such as human rights and digital privacy. For the EU, life without Britain begins in earnest tomorrow. And the stakes could not be higher.

世界需要一个团结一致的， 繁荣的欧盟。例如，在本周的特别峰会上，将要讨论价值1000亿英镑的"绿色协议"，旨在帮助欠发达成员国在2050年前实现净零碳排放。如果这一倡议因政治分歧无法落实，将是十分可悲的。在特朗普时代，伴随着中国的崛起，欧洲也有理由在人权和数字隐私等问题上展开经济合作，作出经济妥协，甚至走在前列。明天，欧盟即将迎来没有英国的日子，赌注也不可能更高了。