2017-03-24 亚马逊公司正在起航 《经济学人》
亚马逊公司正在起航（经济学人20170325）版权归原出版社和作者所有
背景介绍：随着网络科技的普及，越来越多的人喜欢在网上购物。这种趋势产生了两个结果：越来越多的传统百货商店关门，网络零售巨头亚马逊的势头越发高涨。人们对亚马逊的未来十分看好。在所有人都对亚马逊充满信心的时候，经济学人写了一篇文章指出了亚马逊未来可能会面临的问题。
经济学人原文翻译如下
版权声明：文章版权归原杂志和作者所有。翻译仅为英语学习之用。谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。
标题：亚马逊，这个世界上最引人注意的公司，正在起航
副标题：亚马逊能够满足投资者的期望，但成功会带来大问题
作者：经济学人杂志（原文未指出）
时间：2017年3月25日印刷版
AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.
翻译：亚马逊是一家非凡的公司。这个前网上书店的市场份额超过美国网络销售的半壁江山。它是世界上云计算的领先者。这一年，亚马逊在电视上的花费将是HBO（一家有限电视台）的两倍。它的实体产品包括电池、杏仁、西装和话筒。这个话筒可以连接到一个声控设备上，该设备能够控制其他事情，比如你的灯具和喷头。
Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index). With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.
翻译：然而亚马逊的股东相信这样一个假设：一切才刚开始。从2015年初以来，亚马逊的股票涨了173%，是过去两年的7倍（是S&P500指数的12倍）。得到市场融资的4千亿美元后，亚马逊在世界上最有价值公司排行榜上名列第五名。之前从来没有任何一个公司能够持续这么长时间具有这么高的价值而只赚不多的钱：它价值的92%是由于预估的2020年以后的利润。
That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?
翻译：这是因为投资者预期了收入和盈利上的大幅增长。销售额预期将从去年的1360亿在十年后增长到5000万亿。投资希望暗示了它将成为美国最赚钱的公司。人们对亚马逊的怀疑也存在：亚马逊将必须比现代历史上的任何大公司增长得更快，以此才能证明它的价值。这可能吗？
It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not stand still. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online. If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals (see article).
翻译：有些问题是显而易见的。竞争对手不会闲着。微软有云计算的野心。沃尔玛有5000亿美元的收入而且在加强网络销售。如果亚马逊的创始人和老板Jeff Bezos发生了任何事情，填补差距将会变得异常艰难。但是值得注意的是这个公司多有多大的可能性能够实现它的史无前例的目标。
A new sort of basket-case
This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propel its two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.
翻译：
一个新篮子
这很大程度是因为这个公司非同一般的企业文化。第一个是时间。这个时期，主管们因短期业绩压力而产生诸多抱怨，亚马逊坚决地把注意力集中在遥远的地平线。Bezos先生的重心是持续投资以加快两大支柱产业，电商和亚马逊网页服务AWS（它的云计算武器）。
In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon. That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS, the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers, giving developers reason to create yet more services.
翻译：在电子商务中，亚马逊吸引到越多的消费者，就有越多的零售商和厂家想要在这里来销售他们的商品。这给亚马逊更多资金来发展新服务：例如两小时运输和云录像和云音乐，这些又将吸引更多的消费者。类似的，更多消费者使用AWS，亚马逊就可以在吸引新顾客的新服务上投资更多。第三个良性循环是开始围绕亚马逊的声控助手Alexa。当开发者为Alexa创建服务，它对消费者有用，这又让开发者有动力去创造更多的服务。
So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cashflow (before investment) was $16bn, more than quadruple the level five years ago.
翻译：只要股东对这个模式保持信心，亚马逊让人兴奋的价值就像一个自我实现的预约。这个公司将能够保持投入，投入使得它更加有力量。亚马逊过去的记录支持着他们的这一信念。它曾经有过失败--它曾经试图做智能手机，这是一个彻底的失败。但是现在已经开始挣钱了。去年的现金流（投资前）是160亿美元，比五年前的4倍还多。
If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stockmarkets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.
翻译：如果说亚马逊的时间框架是非同寻常的话，那么它活动的宽阔广度也一样。这家公司潜在的和可能的竞争对手名单（据年度文件中的描述）包括物流公司，搜索引擎，社交网络，食物生产商和“物理、电子及各种类型社交媒体”的生产者。如此大的范围让人觉得亚马逊不是一个零售商而是一个大集团，这让亚马逊的股价看起来更加膨胀：股票市场通常应用一个“大集团折扣”来反映他们的低效。
Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS, which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers. It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether, and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers, too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility: one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.
翻译：很多服务支持亚马逊自己的扩张和其他公司的扩张。一个明显的例子是AWS，这使得亚马逊的操作和其他公司的一样好。但是亚马逊也向其他卖家出租仓库。它在肯塔基州建立了一个价值15亿美元的空运枢纽中心。它正在试验新的科技让顾客在实体商店里省掉收银台这一步骤，也在体验让无人机送货上门。这些工具想必也可以服务其他顾客。有人认为亚马逊可以成为一个新兴的力量：提供商业的基础设施，从计算能力到支付到物流。
A giant cannot hide
And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon. If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing. Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America, according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)
翻译：
一个不能隐藏的巨人
伴随着人们对亚马逊的期望，潜在的问题也会浮现出来。如果它能够无所不能地完成自己的目标，它也会被政府管理部门注意到。目前而言，亚马逊不太可能引发反托拉斯行动。目前还不是它最成熟的市场-美国-最大的零售商。美国的反托拉斯执法人员主要看一个公司对消费者和定价的影响。从这个角度看，亚马逊看起来很原始干净。消费者为它鼓掌，在美国，它是最受好评的公司，据Harris的调查。（AWS对于创业公司来说也是一个福利）
But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms. But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology. In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook, say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.
翻译：但是随着它的成长，有关其权利的忧虑也会紧跟其后。即使从反托拉斯法的角度来看，这里也有一个问题：如果它挣到如投资者预期那么多钱的话，一个粗略的计算暗示它的收入可能相当于所有西方零售商和传媒公司利润的25%。但是政府管理部门也正在改变他们对科技的看法。在欧洲，谷歌被指控利用其搜索引擎的影响力来干涉周边生意。数字平台曾经对于法律责任具有一定的豁免权，比如Facebook上的煽动性言论，Uber上的驱动程序，不过现在这些权利已经被剥夺了。
Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future, firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.
翻译：亚马逊的商业模式也在鼓励政府管理部门从不同角度来思考。投资者重视亚马逊的利润增长。那使得掠夺性定价更加诱人。在将来，公司将会更加依赖他们最大竞争对手提供的工具。如果亚马逊成为一个商业力量，那么要求它被规范的呼吁也会增长。股东相信亚马逊的潜能是正确的。但是成功将把它带入一个新的冲突，而对手是更加强大的怪兽：政府。
版权声明：文章版权归原杂志和作者所有。翻译仅为英语学习之用。谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。**
读后感：
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先后在中国和美国都网购过，我认为中国的网购体验更好。对于中国人而言，亚马逊的问题是顾客不能直接在网页上和卖家沟通，非要发邮件。中国大多数人的非工作邮箱都是用来论坛注册的，没人喜欢发邮件。而且发邮件都是工作日的工作时间才能回复，反馈不及时。这可能是中美消费者习惯的差异吧。如今阿里已经这么强大，亚马逊再入中国市场几乎不太可能。同样，亚马逊也已经这么强大，阿里进入欧美市场也不容易。
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国内的快递比美国的给力，又快又便宜。这可能是因为中国人工便宜而且人口相对比较集中吧。美国人工很贵，而且地广人稀的，大家都住得很分散，不能像国内快递小哥那样骑个三轮就去干活了。
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目前，国内在网络消费特别是移动端（通过手机app等）消费在整体消费中的比重应该是世界最高的。旅游有携程app，吃饭有大众点评app，外卖有百度外卖app（我16年初出国后才火爆的，都没体验过，遗憾），打车有滴滴（这个老外有Uber，差距不大）。不是说中国有这些app而美国没有（美国当然也有），而是中国人用这些app的人群比例比美国的更高。比如，很多美国人现在还是喜欢打电话买机票、去车站买火车票，已经成习惯了，没有刺激是不会改变的；而像我爸妈他们那个年代的很多人，以前也没有打电话买过机票，现在开始有坐飞机的需求了学习买机票，一看最主流的就是用app买票，他们当然就直接用这个了。对于买火车票，他们以前都是去车站排队买票，可是现在在手机上买票那么方便，这个“便捷”成为刺激让他们放弃之前的买票方式转为接受新科技。国内的移动消费真的体验很好。
2017.03.24.
NJ
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