【按】飓风哈维让世界第一强国手足无措、损失惨重，这也给世界其他国家敲响了警钟。为什么连美国都对付不了自然灾害？本文不仅指出其中有气候变化的原因，更把矛头指向美国政府的规划和政策，并在最后给出了解决方案。这篇文章告诉我们：天灾很多时候其实是人祸，要解决还是要从人的行为入手。
读完本文，你将学会以下几个表达：
忙于应对、留在原地、未雨绸缪、加强理由
Enjoy~

Natural disasters

How government policy exacerbates hurricanes like Harvey

As if global warming were not enough of a threat, poor planning and unwise subsidies make floods worse

Sep 2nd 2017

谁之过？

1. THE extent of the devastation will become clear only when the floodwater recedes, leaving ruined cars, filthy mud-choked houses and the bloated corpses of the drowned. But as we went to press, with the rain pounding South Texas for the sixth day, Hurricane Harvey had already set records as America’s most severe deluge . In Houston it drenched Harris County in over 4.5trn litres of water in just 100 hours—enough rainfall to cover an eight-year-old child.

pound: If you pound something or pound on it, you hit it with great force, usually loudly and repeatedly.
deluge: A deluge is a sudden, very heavy fall of rain.
drench: To drench something or someone means to make them completely wet.

1）只有当洪水退去, 留下被毁的汽车, 肮脏不堪的泥泞的房子和被淹死者的发胀的尸体时, 灾难的程度才会变得清晰。但是, 当我们在发表（这篇文章）时, 随着大雨重创南德克萨斯达第六天, 飓风哈维作为美国最严重的暴雨已经创下了记录。在休斯顿, 在短短的100小时内, 它就让哈里斯郡湿透在超过4.5 兆公升的水中, 雨量足以没过一个八岁的孩子。

2. The fate of America’s fourth-largest city holds the world’s attention, but it is hardly alone. In India, Bangladesh and Nepal, at least 1,200 people have died and millions have been left homeless by this year’s monsoon floods. Last month torrential rains caused a mudslide in Sierra Leone that killed over 1,000—though the exact toll will never be known. Around the world, governments are grappling with the threat from floods. This will ultimately be about dealing with climate change. Just as important, is correcting short-sighted government policy and the perverse incentives that make flooding worse.

monsoon: The monsoon is the season in Southern Asia when there is a lot of very heavy rain.
grapple with: If you grapple with a problem or difficulty, you try hard to solve it.
perverse: behaving in an unreasonable way, especially by deliberately doing the opposite of what people want you to do

2）这座美国第四大城市的命运引起了世界的关注, 但它并不特例。在印度、孟加拉和尼泊尔, 至少有1200人死于今年的雨季洪水, 造成了数以百万计的人无家可归。上个月塞拉利昂暴雨导致的泥石流造成1000多人丧生——尽管确切的伤亡人数永远无从知晓。在世界各地, 政府正忙于应对洪水带来的威胁。这将最终（转变为）关于解决气候变化的问题。同样重要的是纠正短视的政府政策, 以及使洪灾恶化的不合理的激励措施。

Judgment day
审判日

3. The overwhelming good news is that storms and flooding have caused far fewer deaths in recent decades, thanks to better warning systems and the construction of levees, ditches and shelters. The cyclone that struck Bangladesh in 1970 killed 300,000-500,000 people; the most recent severe one, in 2007, killed 4,234. The bad news is that storms and floods still account for almost three-quarters of weather-related disasters, and they are becoming more common. According to the Munich Re, a reinsurer, their number around the world has increased from about 200 in 1980 to over 600 last year. Harvey was the third “500-year” storm to strike Houston since 1979.

再保险是一家保险公司用以保护自己及其它保险公司以承受损失风险的途径。个人及企业通过签订保险契约以得到面对不同风险（如：龙卷风、地震、法律诉讼、疾病或死亡）时的保障。同理，再保险为保险公司提供类同的保护。

3）大好消息是, 由于更好的预警系统和修建了更好的堤坝、沟渠和庇护所, 近几十年来, 暴风雨和洪水造成的死亡人数减少了很多。1970年袭击孟加拉国的龙卷风造成30万到50万人死亡；最近一次严重的灾难中（2007年）有4234死亡。坏消息是, 暴风雨和洪水仍然占据了天气相关灾害的四分之三, 而且变得越来越普遍。根据Munich Re的数据, 一家 再保险公司, 他们的数量在世界范围内从1980年的大约200家增加了到去年超过600家。哈维是自1979年以来第三次袭击休斯顿的 "500年一遇的" 风暴。

4. At the same time, floods and storms are also becoming more costly. By one estimate, three times as many people were living in houses threatened by hurricanes in 2010 as in 1970, and the number is expected to grow as still more people move to coastal cities. The UN reckons that, in the 20 years to 2015, storms and floods caused $1.7trn of destruction; the World Health Organisation estimates that, in real terms, the global cost of hurricane damage is rising by 6% a year. Flood losses in Europe are predicted to increase fivefold by 2050.
5. 同时, 洪水和暴风雨也变得更加代价高昂。据估计, 在2010年有三倍于1970年的人住在被飓风威胁的房屋中, 这个数字将随着更多人迁往沿海城市而增长。联合国估计, 在 2015前的20年, 暴风雨和洪水造成1.7万亿美元的破坏；世界卫生组织估计, 从实际来看, 飓风造成的全球成本每年增加6%。预计到 2050年, 欧洲的洪灾损失将增加五倍。

5. One cause is global warming. The frequency and severity of hurricanes vary naturally—America has seen unusually few in the past decade. Yet the underlying global trend is what you would expect from climate change. Warmer seas evaporate faster and warmer air can hold more water vapour, which releases energy when it condenses inside a weather system, feeding the violence of storms and the intensity of deluges. Rising sea levels, predicted to be especially marked in the Gulf of Mexico, exacerbate storm surges, adding to the flooding. Harvey was unusually devastating because it suddenly gained strength before it made landfall on Friday; it then stayed put, dumping its rain on Houston before returning to the Gulf. Again, that is consistent with models of a warmer world.

put: Fixed; stationary

5. 一个原因是全球变暖。飓风的频率和严重性天然地不同——在过去的十年中, 在美国出奇地罕见。然而, 潜在的全球趋势正如气候变化给人们的预期一样。温度更高的海洋蒸发得更快，而温度更高的空气可以容纳更多的水蒸气, 当它凝结在一个天气系统内时释放能量, 增加了风暴的暴力和大雨的强度。上升的海平面（预计将在墨西哥湾特别明显）恶化了风暴的汹涌, 让洪水变得更多。哈维异常的破坏性是因为它在星期五登陆前突然获得了力量；然后, 它留在原地, 返回海湾前在休斯敦上空倾倒雨水。 这再一次与温度更高的世界的模型是一致的。

6. Poor planning bears even more blame. Houston, which has almost no restrictions on land-use, is an extreme example of what can go wrong. Although a light touch has enabled developers to cater to the city’s rapid growth—1.8m extra inhabitants since 2000—it has also led to concrete being laid over vast areas of coastal prairie that used to absorb the rain. According to the Texas Tribune and ProPublica, a charity that finances investigative journalism, since 2010 Harris County has allowed more than 8,600 buildings to be put up inside 100-year floodplains, where floods have a 1% chance of occurring in any year. Developers are supposed to build ponds to hold run-off water that would have soaked into undeveloped land, but the rules are poorly enforced. Because the maps are not kept up to date, properties supposedly outside the 100-year floodplain are being flooded repeatedly.

light: exerting a minimum of force or pressure ; gentle
cater to: In British English, to cater for a group of people means to provide all the things that they need or want. In American English, you say you cater to a person or group of people.

6. 糟糕的规划更负有责任。休斯敦几乎没有对土地使用的限制, 这是出问题的一个极端的例子。虽然稍微用力已经使开发商能满足城市快速增长的需求——自2000年以来增加了180万额外居民——它也导致了水泥被铺在用于吸收雨水的沿海大草原的宽广区域。根据德克萨斯论坛报和 ProPublica（一个资助调查新闻的慈善机构），自2010年以来, 哈里斯县允许在有100年历史的泛滥平原上建造了超过8600座建筑, 洪水在任何一年都有1% 的可能在那里发生。开发商们本应该建造池塘来存储本应该流入未开发土地的径流水, 但这些规则执行不力。由于地图没有保持更新, 据推测, 在100年的泛滥平原以外的房产被反复淹没。

7. Government failure adds to the harm. Developing countries are underinsured against natural disasters. Swiss Re, a reinsurer, says that of the $50bn or so of losses to floods, cyclones and other disasters in Asia in 2014, only 8% were covered. The Bank of International Settlements calculates that the worst natural catastrophes typically permanently lower the afflicted country’s GDP by almost 2%. America has the opposite problem—the federal government subsidises the insurance premiums of vulnerable houses. The National Flood Insurance Programme (NFIP) has been forced to borrow because it fails to charge enough to cover its risk of losses. Underpricing encourages the building of new houses and discourages existing owners from renovating or moving out. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, houses that repeatedly flood account for 1% of NFIP’s properties but 25-30% of its claims. Five states, Texas among them, have more than 10,000 such households and, nationwide, their number has been going up by around 5,000 each year. Insurance is meant to provide a signal about risk; in this case, it stifles it.

stifle: If someone stifles something you consider to be a good thing, they prevent it from continuing.

7. 政府的失败增加了伤害。发展中国家抵御自然灾害的保险不足。一家再保险公司Swiss Re说, 2014年亚洲洪灾、旋风和其他灾害造成的500亿美元左右的损失中, 仅有8%被覆盖。国际清算银行计算, 最严重的自然灾害通常会使受灾国家的国内生产总值下降近2%。美国有一个相反的问题——联邦政府补贴脆弱房屋的保险费的额外费用。国家洪水保险计划 (NFIP) 被迫借款, 因为它没有足够的费用来弥补其损失的风险。低定价鼓励了新房的建造, 并让现有业主没有动力去翻新或迁出。根据联邦紧急管理机构的说法, 一再泛滥的房屋占了 NFIP 1% 的房产, 但占其索赔的25-30%。包括得克萨斯州的五个州有超过1万户这样的家庭, 并在全国范围内, 他们的数量每年上升大约5000户。保险旨在提供一个关于风险的信号；在这种情况下, 它会扼杀这种信号。

Mend the roof while the sun shines
未雨绸缪

8. What to do? Flooding strengthens the case for minimising climate change, which threatens to make wet places wetter and storms stormier. Even those who doubt the science would do well to see action as an insurance policy that pays out if the case is proven. However, that will not happen fast, even if all countries, including America, sign up to international agreements. More immediately, therefore, politicians can learn from Houston. Cities need to protect flood defences and catchment areas, such as the wetlands around Kolkata and the lakes in and around Pokhara in Nepal, whose value is becoming clear. Flood maps need to be up to date. Civil engineers, often starved of funds and strangled by bureaucracy, should be building and reinforcing levees and reservoirs now, before it is too late. The NFIP should start to charge market premiums and developing countries should sell catastrophe bonds. All this is a test of government, of foresight and the ability to withstand the lobbying of homeowners and developers. But politicians and officials who fail the test need to realise that, sooner or later, they will wake up to a Hurricane Harvey of their own.

If something strengthens a case or argument, it supports it by providing more reasons or evidence for it.
strangle: to kill sb by squeezing or pressing on their throat and neck
wake up to: If you wake up to something, you become aware of it.

8. 怎么办？洪水加强了将气候变化最小化的理由, 因为气候变化使潮湿的地方更潮湿, 暴风雨更狂暴。即使那些怀疑科学的人也会很好地把行动看成是一项保险政策, 如果证实了这一情况, 就会付出代价。然而, 即使包括美国在内的所有国家都签署了国际协议, 这种情况也不会很快发生。因此, 更直接的是，政治家可以从休斯敦（洪水）中学习。城市需要保护洪水防御工事和 集水区域, 例如加尔各答周围的湿地和尼泊尔博克拉附近的湖泊, 其价值日益明显。洪水地图必须是最新的。土木工程师（往往缺乏资金和被官僚作风扼杀）现在应该在为时已晚之前建设和加固堤坝和水库。NFIP 应该开始收取市场溢价, 发展中国家应该出售巨灾债券。所有这些都是对政府、对抵御房主和开发商游说的能力和远见的考验。但是, 那些未通过考验的政客和官员们必须了解, 他们迟早会意识到自己（将面对）的飓风哈维。

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原文出处：经济学人

翻译：七呵夫

本译文仅供个人研习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。本译文不代表本人立场。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。