【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- 对比日本和阿根廷

【The Economist】 April, 2019

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(注：本文仅用于英语翻译练习和单词学习之用）

Many people make fun of macroeconomics. But any theory that must explain both Argentina and Japan deserves sympathy. Why, in particular, is inflation so stubbornly high in one and low in the other? In Argentina, consumer prices were 50% higher in February than a year earlier, the fastest increase since 1991. In Japan over the same period, inflation was less than 0.2%, equalling the lowest rate since 2016.

人们乐于拿宏观经济学逗乐。不过要能够同时解释阿根廷和日本的经济问题对于宏观经济学还真是个难题。尤其是在通胀问题上，一家持续走高而另一家却持续低迷，究其原因为何？阿根廷今年2月份的消费价格比去年上涨了50%，涨幅创1991年以来新高。而日本同期涨幅不到0.2%，相当于2016年以来的最低点。

The inertia in both countries is puzzling. Inflation has stayed low in Japan despite a drum-tight labour market(unemployment has remained at 2.5% or below for over a year) and high in Argentina despite a fast-shrinking economy: its GDP contracted by more than 6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018.

两国的经济走势都令人费解。尽管日本的劳动力市场吃紧（失业率一年以来在2.5%以下）通胀率却一直低迷，而阿根廷经济快速紧缩（2018年四季度GDP比去年同期紧缩超6%）但通胀率却居高不下。

The two countries, of course, have long mystified economists. In 1950 Argentina's GDP per person was three times that of Japan, according to the Maddison Project database. The Eva Peron charitable foundation, run by the president's wife, shipped 100 tons of relief supplies to the war-battered Japanese. Thousands of Japanese migrated in the opposite direction, creating a population of 23,000 Nipo-Argentinos by the end of the 1960s.

当然两国的经济问题也长期困惑着经济学家。根据麦迪逊数据显示1950年阿根廷的人均国民生产总值是日本的三倍。由当时总统夫人领导的爱娃珀森慈善基金会向日本发运了100吨救济物资。成千上万的日本人移民到了阿根廷，上世纪60年代在阿日裔达到了2.3万人。

But the two countries' economy paths went on to cross decisively. Japan's GDP per person eclipsed Argentina's around 1970 and is now about twice as high, measured at purchasing power parity. Its success and Argentina's failure defied predictions. Simon Kuznets, who won the Nobel prize in economics in 1971 for his work on growth, put it best: there are four types of countries in the world-developed, undeveloped, Japan and Argentina.

两国的经济发展道路却自此义无反顾地背道而驰。按照购买力平价，日本的人均GDP在1970年开始赶超阿根廷，现在已经是后者的两倍。日本的成功和阿根廷的失利打破了经济学预言。基于经济增长方面的研究成就于1971年赢得诺贝尔经济学奖的西蒙库茨涅夫，对此的描述恰到好处，世界上有四种国家：发达国家，不发达国家，日本还有阿根廷。

Policymakers in both countries have tried hard to make them macro-economically "normal". After 2012, the central bank promised to raise inflation to 2% in about two years by expanding its asset purchases. And after Mauricio Macri won Argentina's presidency at the end of 2015, the central bank promised to raise interest rate enough to bring inflation down below 17% in 2017 and 12% in 2018, paving the way for an inflation target of 5% thereafter.

两国政府都试图制定经济政策实现宏观经济正常化。自2012年以来日本中央银行承诺将通扩大资产收购的方式将通胀率提升到2%。2015年末毛里西奥赢得总统席位后，阿根廷央行承诺提高利率，在2017年将通胀率降到17%，2018年到12%，从而为最终的5%通胀率目标铺平道路。

In both cases, these bold new policy frameworks seemed to offer a decisive break with a sorry past. In Japan， previous central bank officials had resigned themselves to mild deflation or even welcomed it, redefining failure as success. In Argentina, the previous government had responded to high inflation by simply fiddling the figures, misreporting failure as success.

两国的大胆经济政策框架似乎都与惨淡的过去划了分界线。日本前央行官员接受了轻微的通缩现实甚至表示欢迎，偷换概念把失败也定义为成功。阿根廷的前政府官员干脆无视高通胀的失败现实，玩弄数字请功邀赏。

But the early optimism has faltered. Both governments have been forced to revisit their targets and their instruments for achieving them. When Price pressures proved more stubborn than Argentina expected in 2017, the government relaxed its unachievable inflation targets to bring them closer in line with reality. But that tweak led investors to lose faith in the authorities' resolve to tackle rising prices. In Japan, many commentators think the central bank should lower its seemingly unreachable 2% inflation target to something more achievable. But just as investors over-interpret evidence of slackening in Argentina, they pounce on any sign of tightening in Japan. Any tweak in the central bank's target will probably be misinterpreted as a change in its policy, rather than an acknowledgment of reality. Given their track records, neither central bank enjoys the benefit of the doubt.

最初的乐观主义碰了壁。两国政府最终都被迫重新审视他们所订立的目标和实现目标的方法。当2017年阿根廷感受到更加紧迫的价格通胀压力后，政府放松了对无法企及目标的执着，回到现实可行的方案上来。这一改变却使得投资者丧失了对政府解决价格高企问题的信心。日本的评论家认为央行应当降低看似无法实现的2%的通胀目标，而代之以可行数字。但是也正如投资者过度解读阿根廷政府的松弛政策，他们猛烈地抨击了日本任何看似紧缩的迹象。任何央行对目标的调整可能都会被误读为政策的改变，而非对于现实的认同。鉴于两国央行的过往表现，他们只能备受质疑了。

Indeed, memories of the past create self-fulfilling prophecies. The holders of Argentina currency bear many scars, including hyperinflation,devaluation, re-denomination, and the corralito that froze their deposits in 2001. The yen, by contrast, is seen as a safe haven. When trouble strikes, investors are quick to flee from Argentina's currency, whereas the Japanese are quick to flee into theirs. Recent drops in the peso, which has fallen by over 10% so far this year after plunging by 50% last year, are one cause of inflation's recent resurgence. Periodic appreciations of the yen have had the opposite effect in Japan.

确实如此，记忆往往使预言自我应验。阿根廷货币持有人已经伤痕累累，经历了恶性通胀、货币贬值、货币重新计价和2001年的储蓄冻结。而相比之下，日元被视为避险货币。一有麻烦，投资者迅速抛售阿根廷货币，而日本投资者则迅速买入日元。最近比索的大跳水是继去年降价50%后再度贬值10%，也是近来通胀再现的原因。而日本定期的日元升值则带来了相反的效应。

The sorry track records of each central bank also diminish their influence over wage negotiations. In both countries, workers demand that their pay keeps pace with the price pressures they feel, not the inflation the central bank promises. During the spring shunto (or wage offensive), Japan's big companies and unions thrash out wage deals that set a benchmark for other parts of the economy. Companies like Panasonic, Hitachi and Toshiba have this year offered increases in base pay of only 0.3%, according to Capital Economics, a research firm.

两国央行不光彩的纪录削弱了他们在工资谈判上的影响力。两国的工人都提出了根据他们切身感受到的物价压力来同步调整薪酬，而非与央行公布的通胀同步。在这次薪资谈判中，日本的大公司和工会达成的方案为其他行业制定了基准。根据一家调查公司的数据表明，诸如松下、日立和东芝等公司今年给出的基本工资涨幅只有0.3%。

Argentina has a similar set of negotiations known as paritaris. Some economists expect them to yield wage increases of 30-35% this year, which will help keep inflation uncomfortably high. In parts of Argentina the school year, which begins in March, was delayed by striking teachers demanding salary increases to offset last year's inflation and this year's, whatever it turns out to be.

阿根廷也有类似的一套谈判程序。一些经济学家曾经预测今年的工资涨幅达到30-35%，可能进一步导致通胀率高企不下。部分地区自三月份开始的新学年就被推迟了，因为教师们罢工要求涨薪以抵消去年以来和今年（根据最终统计结果确定）所遭受的通胀。

Argentina's inflationary tendencies reflect its long struggle to live within its means. Japan's deflationary bent reflects a struggle to live up to them. Argentina's national saving rate has averaged only 17% of GDP over the past 30 years, too low to meet its ambitions for investment. As a consequence, it has recorded a deficit in its current account with the rest of the world in 30 of the past 40 years. Japan on the other hand, has run a surplus since 1981 and is now the world's biggest net international creditor. Despite some signs of change, Japan's corporations still hoard cash and other financial assets, rather than splashing out on the higher wages or dividends a rich economy can afford.

阿根廷的通胀趋势反映了长期以来难以为继量入为出。而日本的通缩则反映出支出的长期疲软。阿根廷全国的储蓄率过去30年仅占其GDP的17%，无法满足投资需求。所以过去40年中的30年里，阿根廷的往来账户均为赤字。而另一方面，日本自1981年起往来账户一直是顺差，现在是全球最大的净债权国。尽管略有变化，但是日本的企业大都守着现金和金融资产，而不去大笔支付高工资或者股息，而这其实是一个富裕社会完全承担得起的。