Facebook's third act

经济学人      March 22, 2019

青澄青果      翻译

The first big overhaul for Facebook came in 2012-14. Internet users were carrying out ever more tasks on smartphones rather than desktop or laptop computers. Mark Z opted to follow them, concentrating on F's Mobile app ahead of its website, and buying up two fast-growing communication apps, WhatsApp and Instagram. It worked. Facebook increased its market valuation from around $60bn at the end of 2012 to -- for a brief period in 2018 -- more than $600bn.

脸谱的第一次彻底革新发生在2012年至2014年间。当时因特网用户更多的是用手机上网而非过去的台式或手提电脑。扎克伯格决定跟随潮流，注意力随之从网站转到手机应用上，并收购了两个快速发展的通信应用软件WhatsApp 和 Instagram。效果立显，脸谱的市场估值从2012年的600亿美元大幅增长，2018年一度达到6000亿美元。

On March 6th Mr Z announced Facebook's next pivot. As well as its existing moneymaking enterprise, selling targeted ads on its public social networks, it is building a "privacy focused platform" around WhatsApp, Instagram and Messenger. The apps will integrated, and message sent through them encrypted end-to-end, so that even Facebook cannot read them. While it was not made explicit, it is clear what the business model will be. Mr Z wants all manner of businesses to use its messaging networks to provide services and accept payments. Facebook will take a cut.

3月6日扎克伯格宣布了下一个核心业务。除了在公众社交网络投放商业广告这些盈利业务外，下一步脸谱将围绕几个应用 （WhatsApp, Instagram 和 Messenger）建立专注隐私保护的平台，并对之进行整合和端到端的全程加密，即使脸谱都无法读取相关信息。虽未明言，不过它的商业模式已经十分清晰。扎克伯格试图使各行各业都通过他的信息交互网络提供网络服务和收付款，脸谱则从中抽成。

A big shift was overdue at Facebook given the privacy and political scandals that have battered the firm. Even Mr. Z, who often appears incapable of seeing the gravity of Facebook's situation, seemed to grasp the irony of it putting privacy first. Still he intend to do it. The content of messages will be safe from prying eyes of authoritarian snoops and criminals, as well as from Facebook itself. But caution is warranted for three reasons.

鉴于脸谱遭遇的隐私和政治丑闻，它早该有所行动。甚至连搞不清脸谱所面临的严重局势的小扎，也知道他们把隐私保护放在首位看来是有点滑稽。不过他认定必须改变。内容保护能够使信息躲开监管和犯罪分子甚至脸谱自己。不过基于三点理由，还需保持谨慎。

The first is that Facebook has long been accused of misleading the public on privacy and security, so the potential benefits Mr Z touts deserve to be treated sceptically. He is also probably underselling the benefits that running integrated messaging networks brings to his firm, even if they are encrypted so that Facebook cannot see the content. The metadata alone will still allow Facebook to target advertisements precisely, meaning its ad model will still function.

第一个原因是脸谱一直以来因为在隐私和安全问题上误导公众，所以我们要对小扎所吹嘘的所谓给我们带来的好处进行质疑。小扎实际上也遮掩了信息平台给脸谱的业务带来的优势，即使加了密脸谱看不到信息本身，但是这不妨碍脸谱根据大数据精准定位投放广告，这也就意味着它的广告业务模式还可以一如既往地运行。

End-to-end encryption will also make Facebook's business cheaper to run. Because it will be mathematically impossible to moderate encrypted communications, the firm will have an excuse to take less responsibility for content running through its apps, limiting its moderation costs.

端到端加密会降低运营成本。因为根本不可能审核信息所以脸谱用不着对之担责，相应节省了这部分的开支。

If it can make the changes, Facebook's dominance over messaging would probably increase. The newfound user-benefits of a more integrated Facebook might make it harder for regulators to argue that Mr Z's firm should be broken up.

如果此计划落地，脸谱将在信息交互领域独霸一方。而其整合后给用户带来的好处可能使监管部门更难找到理由将之拆分。

Facebook's plans in India provide some insight into the new model, It has built a payment system into WhatApp, the country's most-used messaging app. The system is waiting for regulatory approval. The market is huge. In the rest of the world, too, users are likely to be drawn in by the convenience of Facebook's new networks. Mr Z's latest strategy is ingenious but may contain twists.

脸谱在印度的业务可以略微透露一些它的业务模式，它在最火的WhatApp应用里植入了支付系统，正等待最后审批。这个市场潜力巨大。而全球其他国家的用户也随之会被这项业务所带来的便利而吸引。看来小扎的新举措虽有创新，不过也有猫腻。