胡焕庸线——可以突破吗？

Hu Line uncovers one of China's most important characteristics of population paper distribution: East is dense, while west is sparse.
Different from most previous research, this paper examined the differentiation and changes of population distribution on both sides of Hu Line from a perspective of spatial stratified heterogeneity instead.
Geodetector was employed based on the spatial database of China's census data of 1953, 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 to reconfirm spatial position of Hu Line and analyzed changes of spatial stratified heterogeneity of population between southeast and northwest sides of Hu Line in different periods.
Changes of population distribution since the founding of New China were found and the reasons for these changes were discussed.

胡焕庸线揭示了中国最重要的人口分布特征：东密西疏。不同于以往研究，本文从空间分析性的角度验证了胡焕庸线差异性和人口分布的变化基于中国1953，1982，1990，2000，2010年人口普查数据的空间数据库，空间探测器再次证实了胡焕庸线的空间位置，分析了不同时期胡焕庸线南方和北方人口空间分异性的变化。自从新中国成立以来，人口分布变化被发现并且变化的原因被讨论。
胡焕庸线作为人地关系的重要地理大发现之一,揭示了中国人口分布东密西疏的重要特征,是人文与经济地理学对社会的重要贡献之一。本文采用地理探测器等定量方法,以人口普查数据为基础,对胡焕庸线两侧人口分布的分异性特征进行了深入讨论,并尝试解释中国人口分布特征变化的原因及其机制。

Major findings include: (1) From the spatial stratified heterogeneity perspective, Hu Line could be improved and optimized, at least, in some periods. Although the ratio of total population on both sides of Hu Line has roughly been kept at 94:6 since 1953, spatial stratified heterogeneity of population between the two sides (the southeastern side: the northwestern side) increased when Hu Line moves to south slightly in 1953, 2000 and 2010, which means population distribution was more homogeneous within either southeastern or northwestern region and heterogeneity was more remarkable between the two regions.

主要的发现如下：（1）从空间分异性角度，至少在某些时期，胡焕庸线可能提高或者优化。尽管从1953年总人口比率大致保持在94：6，胡焕庸线在1953年、2000年、2010年轻微的向南移动，空间分异性在东南方向和西北方向增加。这意味着人口分布正在东南区域或西北区域内部更加相似，但是两个区域的差异性更加显著。
① 胡焕庸线作为中国最重要的人口分界线仍基本保持稳定,但从空间统计学分异特征来看该分界线仍可进一步优化调整;

(2) Heterogeneity decreased gradually since the reform and opening up. We found characteristics of population distribution converged on the two sides, especially since the 1990s when convergence between the two sides became apparent. This finding is significantly different from the conclusion of "remain unchanged" from most literatures. The reasons why heterogeneity reduced were: pattern of population distribution on the southeastern side changed from relatively even distribution among cities before 1990 to agglomeration in a few huge cities after 2000, while the degree of spatial agglomeration of population decreased slightly after the reform on the northwestern side. These changes have been confirmed by the analysis from cumulative distribution function and Gini coefficient.

自从改革开发以来，差异性逐渐下降。我们发现人口分布特征在两个区域汇集，特别是自从20世纪90年代，两个区域的集聚变得显而易见的。此项发现与许多论文的保持不变的结论显著不同。为什么差异性下降的原因是：人口分布模式在东南方向在1990年之前积聚在市县，到2000之后集聚在一些大城市。空间集聚度细微的下降在西北大开发后。这些变化已经由累积分布函数和基尼系数分析被证实。
② 胡焕庸线两侧内部人口集聚模式发生着明显变化,东南半壁人口分布由改革开放之前和初期的相对均衡状态,转变为以长三角、珠三角等少数区域为中心的集聚模式;而西北半壁人口分布的集聚程度则趋于下降;

(3) On the whole, the effect of economic factors on population distribution has become more and more important, while the effect of natural environment and institution reduced. Combined effect from economic development, natural environment and institution resulted in two opposite directions of changes of population spatial distribution on the two sides. It should be emphasized that although general effect of natural environment has decreased, some natural factors, such as Three Gradient Terrains, still have significantly influence on population distribution in China.

总的来说，经济的影响已经越来越重要，而自然环境和政策的因素逐渐减小。结合经济开发的影响，自然环境和政治制度导致了人口空间分布在两个相反方向的变化。值得强调的是尽管自然环境的一般影响下降，一些自然因素如三大阶梯地形仍然对于中国人口分布有显著的影响。
结果表明：③ 从人口空间分布的影响因素看,尽管总体上,经济发展类因素对于人口空间分布影响不断增强,但三大阶梯等自然地理本底条件依然对中国人口分布有着重要影响。