Level 4 - Unit 2 - Part 2 Listen

This man is holding a piece of fruit in his hand. The piece of fruit is either an orange or an apple. We can’t see which it is because we can’t see inside the box. The probability that it is an orange is equal to the probability that it is an apple. It may be an apple, and it may be an orange. It’s got to be one or the other. It can’t be anything else.
这个男人手里拿着一个水果，可能是橙子或苹果。我们不清楚到底是什么是因为我们看不见盒子里面。是橙子的概率和苹果相同，它可能是苹果，也可能是橙子，二者必居其一，不可能是别的。

Now let’s look at it from the man’s point of view. From his point of view, the probabilities are different. From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 100% or 0%. That’s because he knows what he has. For him, there is no uncertainty. If he has an orange, the probability is 100%. If he doesn’t have an orange, the probability is 0%. He either has it or he doesn’t.
现在我们从这个男人的视角来看，在他看来，概率是不同的，他有橙子的概率是100%或者0%，那是因为他知道自己有什么，对他来说没有不确定性。如果他有橙子，概率是100%，如果没有，概率是0%。他要么有，要么没有。

From our point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 50%. From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 100% or 0%. So the probability depends on your point of view.
从我们的视角来看，他有橙子的概率是50%，从他的视角来看，他有橙子的概率是100%或0%，所以概率取决于你的视角。