Technology predictions十条多年前的科技预言
Some of these are probably apocryphal, but making predictions about the limits of technology is really hard:
也许以下部分预言的真实性有待考证，但是坦白说，要准确预测未来技术给现实生活带来的变革，确实很困难。
Space travel is utter bilge. - Dr. Richard van der Reit Wooley, space advisor to the British government, 1956
“太空旅行就是一个天大的笑话。” - Richard van der Relt Wooley博士，英国政府太空技术顾问，1956
Computers in the future may...perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons. - Popular Mechanics, 1949
“未来的计算机，重量也许能减轻到1.5吨。”- 大众机械师（美国著名科普杂志），1949
X-rays are a hoax. - Lord Kelvin, ca. 1900
“X射线就是一个骗局。” - Kelvin勋爵（著名量子物理学家），1900
I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years. Two years later we ourselves made flights. This demonstration of my impotence as a prophet gave me such a shock that ever since I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions. - Wilbur Wright, 1908
“我承认，在1901年我对我的兄弟Orville说过，我觉得50年内人类不可能实现飞行。而仅仅2年之后，我们自己实现了飞行。自此之后，我再也不相信自己的任何预言。同时，也不相信其它任何人做出的预言。” - Wilbur Wright（莱特兄弟中的哥哥），1908
To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth--all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances. - Lee deForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957
“把一个人装进一个多级的火箭内，然后弹射到月球的控制重力区内。使得宇航员能够进行科学实验，或者太空漫步，最后再返回地球。所有这些都只不过是Jules Verne（法国著名小说家，诗人，剧作家）科幻小说里描述的情节而已。”我有足够的经验可以负责任的说，这类的人工月球旅行，无论在技术发展到何种情况下，都不可能被实现。” - Lee deForest，真空管发明人，1957
There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will. - Albert Einstein, 1932
“没有一丁点的迹象表明，人们能够掌握核能。因为这意味着原子结构可以被随意打碎。” - Albert Einstein（不解释），1932
That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives. - Admiral William Leahy to President Truman
“这是人类犯过的最愚蠢的一个错误。炸弹将无法被熄灭，我以一个炸弹专家的身份发言。” - Admiral William Leahy（二战期间美国海军军官）对杜鲁门总统说
Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine. - Ernest Rutherford, 1933
“任何想要从原子的裂变中获取能量的想法，都是异想天开。” - Ernest Rutherford（核物理之父），1933
The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it... Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the consciousness of the patient. - Dr. Alfred Velpeaum, French surgeon, 1839
“任何与无痛手术有关的想法都是妄想，任何有关这个方向的探索也是荒唐的。患者们将意识到手术刀和疼痛，将永远是手术中必不可少的两个元素。” - Alfred Velpeaum博士，法国外科医生，1839
Bitcoin is definitely going to be trading at $10,000 or more and in wide use by the end of 2014. - Many otherwise smart people, November of 2013
“到2014年年底之前，比特币必将被大规模使用，而且单位交易价格将超过1万美金。” - 那些自以为是的聪明人，11月，2013
Superhuman machine intelligence is prima facie ridiculous. - Many otherwise smart people, 2015
“超级人工智能是一个显而易见的笑话。” - 那些自以为是的聪明人，2015
“当然，如果把时间长度拉到无限长，那么人们做出的任何预测都会是错的。” - STOREIS
