Adventure capitalism

冒险资本主义

 

The venture-capital industry is being supersized by a colossal boom. Good.

风险投资行业正在被巨大的繁荣放大。这是好事。

Vladimir-lenin believed that a tiny vanguard could, through force of will, harness historical forces to transform how global capitalism works. He was right. However, the revolutionaries have not been bearded Bolsheviks but a few thousand investors, mostly based in Silicon Valley, running less than 2% of the world’s institutional assets. In the past five decades, the venture­ capital (vc) industry has funded enterprising ideas that have gone on to transform global business and the world economy. Seven of the world’s ten largest firms were vc­-backed. vc money has financed the companies behind search engines, iPhones, electric cars and mrna vaccines.

弗拉基米尔-列宁相信，一支小小的先锋队可以凭借意志力，驾驭历史力量来改变全球资本主义的运作方式。他是对的。然而，革命者不是大胡子布尔什维克，而是几千名投资者，他们大多在硅谷，运营着不到2%的全球机构资产。在过去的50年里，风险资本（VC）行业为那些改变全球商业和世界经济的创业型点子提供了资金。全球最大的十家公司中有七家是由风险投资公司支持的。风险投资公司的资金资助了搜索引擎、苹果手机、电动汽车和麻疹疫苗背后的公司。

Now capitalism’s dream machine is itself being scaled up and transformed, as an unprecedented $450 bn of fresh cash floods into the vc scene (see Finance & economics section). This turbo-charging of the venture world brings significant risks, from ego-maniacal founders torching cash to pension pots being squandered on overvalued startups. But in the long run it also promises to make the industry more global, to funnel risk capital into awider range of industries, and to make vc more accessible to ordinary investors. A larger pool of capital chasing a bigger universe of ideas will boost competition, and is likely to boost innovation, leading to a moredynamic form of capitalism.

现在，资本主义的梦想机器本身正在扩大和改变，因为史无前例的4500亿美元的新现金涌入风险投资领域（见本刊金融和经济部分）。风险投资领域的涡轮增压带来了巨大的风险，从疯狂自大的创始人烧光现金，到养老金被挥霍在高估的初创公司上。但从长远来看，它也有望使这个行业更加全球化，将风险资本导入更广泛的行业，并使普通投资者更容易接触风险投资。更大的资本池追逐更大的创新天地，将促进竞争，并可能促进创新，促成更有活力的资本主义形式。

Thevc scene has its roots in the 1960s and has been a misfit in the financial world. In contrast to Wall Street’ssuits, sophistication and Hamptons mansions, it prefers fleeces, nerdiness and Californian villas. Its distinctiveness is also a matter of intellectual emphasis. As mainstream finance has grown bigger, more quantitative and morepreoccupied with slicing and dicing the cashflows of mature firms and assets, vc has remained a cottage industry that cuts against the grain, seeking to find and finance entrepreneurs who are too callow or strange to sit in a room with staid bankers, and ideas that are too novel for mbas to capturein financial models.

风投场景起源于20世纪60年代，一直是金融界的异类。与华尔街的西装革履、举止考究和汉普顿的豪宅相比，它更喜欢休闲卫衣、书呆子气和加州的别墅。它的独特性还包括更重视智力。随着主流金融业越来越大，越来越量化，越来越专注于剖析成熟企业和资产的现金流，VC依然是个特立独行的“山寨”行业，致力于发现和资助那些过于稚嫩或古怪而无法与老成的银行家谈笑风生的创业者，以及那些过于异想天开而让MBA们在金融模型中无章可循的创意。

The results have been striking. Despite investing relatively modest amounts over the decades, America’s vc funds have seeded firms that are today worth at least $18 trn of the total public market. This record reflects the dizzying ascent of the big tech platforms such as Google. More recently vc­-backedunicorns (private startups worth over $1 bn) have come of age in a bonanza of public listings, ranging from the spectacular (Rivian) to the everyday (Slack). Over the past golden decade, an index of American vc funds has made compound annual returns of 17%. A few have done much better than that.

风投有着惊人的成绩。尽管几十年来的投资额相对较小，但美国风投基金累计投资的企业，如今在整个公开市场上的价值至少达到180万亿美元。这一记录反映了谷歌等大型科技平台的飞速崛起。最近，有风投背景的独角兽公司（估值超过10亿美元的私人初创公司）在上市的大潮中迎来了自己的时代，从一飞冲天（Rivian）到普通平凡（Slack）都有。在过去的黄金十年里，美国风投基金指数的年化复合回报率为17%。有几家基金更是远高于此。

This success is now spilling over into the broader financial industry. As vc-­backed firmslist, the resulting windfall is being re-deployed into new funds. Meanwhile, with interest rates still low, pension schemes, sovereign­-wealth vehicles and companies havegota feverish dose of vc-­envy, and are scrambling to allocate more cash to dedicated funds or setting up their own vc arms. So far this year almost $600 bn has been deployed in deals—ten times the level of a decade ago.

这种成功现在正蔓延到更广泛的金融业。随着被投企业的陆续上市，由此产生的暴利正被重新投入新的基金中。同时，由于利率仍然低迷，养老基金、主权财富机构和企业们都对风投基金眼红得发狂，并争先恐后地将更多现金分配给专项基金或成立自己的风险投资部门。今年截至目前，已经有近6000亿美元风投资金被投出去--是十年前规模的十倍。

As money pours in, vc is permeating the economy more deeply and broadly.  What once was an American affair is now a global one, with 51% of deals by value in 2021 happening outside America. China’svc scene has tapered off recently because of a consumer­-techcrackdown by the central government. However, the industry is booming in the rest of Asia and after decades of slumber, innovation in Europe is awakening, with 65 cities hosting unicorns (see Business section).

随着资金的涌入，VC正在更深入和广泛地渗透到经济中。曾经只在美国的生意，现在已经变成了全球的生意，2021年51%的投资额发生在美国之外。由于中央政府对消费相关技术的打压，中国的风投领域最近有所收敛。然而，该行业正在亚洲其它地区蓬勃发展；经过几十年的沉睡，欧洲的创新正在觉醒，共65个城市拥有独角兽企业（见本刊商业部分）。

The vc boom has so far focused on a narrow cohort of consumer­-tech firms, such as Airbnb and Deliveroo. Now more cash may finance areas where disruption is less advanced. This year investments in clean energy, space and biotech were double those of 2019. And the industry is becoming more open. Whereas once a cosy elite of funds had unusual power, now main-stream financial firms are involved and there are vehicles that allow ordinary investors to gain exposure cheaply. Competition is forcing vcs of all kinds to experiment with new strategies, including tracking the careers of individual creators.

到目前为止，风投的发展主要集中在少数消费技术公司上，如Airbnb和Deliveroo。现在，更多的资金可能会投向那些颠覆程度较低的领域。今年对清洁能源、太空和生物技术的投资是2019年的两倍。而且风投行业正在变得更加开放。曾经，少数精英基金们坐拥安逸的环境和呼风唤雨的权力，而现在主流金融公司也躬身入局，并且有一些低门槛的渠道可以让普通投资者入圈。竞争正在迫使各类风投基金尝试新的策略，包括追溯个人创业者的职业生涯。

Obviously, there are dangers. One is that money corrupts. Soaring valuations and abundant capital can make firms and their backers self-indulgent. Of the top 100 firms listed in 2021, 54 are in the red, with $71 bn of cumulative losses. Governance can beabysmal. SoftBank’s $100bn Vision Fund, which pioneered writing vast cheques to startups and goading them to grow faster, has been beset by conflicts of interest. Founders go off the rails. Adam Neumann of WeWork built a beer-­fuelled personality cult.

显然，其中存在着危险。其一，金钱会使人堕落。飙升的估值和充裕的资金会使企业和它们的投资者自我膨胀。在2021年上市的前100家公司中，有54家处于亏损状态，累计亏损达710亿美元。公司治理可能会变糟糕。软银的1000亿美元愿景基金常常率先向初创企业开出巨额支票，刺激它们加速发展，但它一直受到利益冲突的困扰。有些创业者偏离了轨道。WeWork 的亚当-诺伊曼（Adam Neumann）建立了一种以啤酒为动力的个人崇拜。

Another danger is that, as in any asset class, returns are diluted as money pours in. Main-­stream funds may find that, as well as having to cope with vc’s notorious booms and busts, long­-run returns are lower than they hoped.

另一个危险是，与任何资产类别一样，收益会随着资金的涌入而被稀释。主流基金可能会发现，除了必须适应VC行业臭名昭著的繁荣和萧条之外，长期回报也比他们希望的要低。

Yetwhat is humdrum for investors can still be good for the economy. It is better that a marginal dollar goes to fledgling companies than to bloated housing or a flooded bond market. A vc crash triggered by rising interest rates would not destabilise the financial system, because startups have low debts. Even if vc­backed firmsrecklessly burn money, much of it will flow to consumers: think of all those subsidised carrides and home-delivered meals. At a minimum, the boom will enhance competition. vc investment this year will exceed total capital spending and research­-and­-development spending by the five biggest tech firms, which are also being discouraged from buying up potential competitors by the threat of tighter anti-trust rules (see United States section).

然而，对投资者来说平淡无奇的东西，仍然可以对经济有利。多余的美元投向羽翼未丰的企业，总好过流向臃肿的房地产业或泛滥的债券市场。利率上升引发的风投基金崩溃不会破坏金融系统的稳定，因为初创企业的债务率很低。即使风投支持的创业公司疯狂烧钱，大部分钱也会流向消费者：想想那些有补贴的打车和外卖。至少，风投繁荣将增强竞争。今年的风投金额将超过五大科技公司的资本支出和研发投入总额，而由于受到更严格的反垄断规则威胁，这些公司也不愿收购潜在的竞争对手（见本刊美国部分）。

The biggest prize would be more innovation. It is true that no amount of cash can create raw brilliance. And governments often fund basic scientific break-throughs. Yet the global supply of entrepreneurs is hardly fixed and plenty of ideas remain under-exploited. The previous vc boom saw investors extend the horizon of risk­-takingto more difficult and adventurous areas. As venture investment spreads around the world, entrepreneurs outside America will have a better chance of joining in. And the barriers to creating new businesses are falling, thanks to cheap cloud-computing and remote working. Venture capital aims to take good ideas and make them bigger and better: it is only right to apply that logic to the industry itself.

最大的奖励将是更多创新涌现。诚然，再多的资金也无法再创当初的辉煌。政府经常资助基础科学的探索。然而，全球创业者的涌现是此起彼伏的，大量的创意有待充分开发。在之前的风险投资热潮中，投资者将风险投资的范围扩大到了更加困难和冒险的领域。随着风险投资在世界各地的蔓延，美国以外的企业家将有更多机会加入其中。而且，由于廉价的云计算和远程工作，创建新企业的难度正在降低。风险投资的目的是抓住好的点子，把它们变得更大、更好：将这个逻辑应用于行业本身，才是正确的。