日本经济——有些拮据
【导读】安倍经济学也已经有段时日，刺激政策的确带来了短期的景气。经济真正复苏需要恢复良性循环，但日本劳动力的实际工资不升反降，给经济复苏的前景撒上阴影。
Japan’s economy
日本经济
Feeling the pinch
有些拮据
Even as jobs grow scarce, real wages continue to fall
尽管劳动力供给愈发紧张，实际工资仍然持续下降
Aug 9th 2014 | TOKYO | From the print edition
IF ABENOMICS means anything, it is the promise of the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to restore healthy economic growth to Japan and end years of deflation. To that end the central bank, sloughing off its traditional caution, has flooded the economy with money and encouraged the yen to slide. Mr Abe has wooed investors with a resolutely upbeat message about Japan’s prospects. As a consequence, the stockmarket is up by three-fifths since Mr Abe came to office in late 2012, and even property prices in Tokyo are rising after years in the doldrums.
要说「安倍经济学」意义何在，那可以认为它是首相安倍晋三为重塑健康的经济增长、终结持续多年的通缩作出的一项承诺。日本央行为此抛开了传统的谨慎态度，印出大量钞票刺激经济，并促使日元贬值。对日本前景坚定的乐观预期为安倍吸引来了投资者。因此自2012年底安倍上任起，股指上涨了五分之三，甚至多年来一直波澜不惊的东京地产价格都涨了起来。
Yet for folk who do not own bundles of shares or a flat in Tokyo’s trendy Daikanyama neighbourhood, the picture is very different. The mantra of Mr Abe and his advisers has been that a virtuous circle would come about whereby wages would rise and lift consumer spending, which in turn would boost investment by companies. Bingo: Japan would emerge from deflation. That is not happening and it is a conundrum.
不过对于手头没有大笔股票，也没有在东京时髦的代官山附近买下公寓的平民百姓来说，这个世界就截然不同了。安倍与幕僚们经常念叨说，经济的良性循环就要来了，由于工资上涨（译注：货币宽松的缘故），消费活力因此释放，进而推动企业投资。成了，日本就这样从通缩中逃脱出来了。但事实如谜题般复杂，他们所设想的一切并不会发生。
On the one hand, the labour market is tight to bursting. That is partly because of strong demand for workers in, for instance, construction. But it is also because the population is shrinking fast. The number of Japanese is predicted to fall from 127m today to under 90m by 2060. Every year the working-age population falls by about 1m. Today unemployment stands at just 3.7% (dream on, Spain).
一方面看，劳动力市场就要爆发了。其中部分原因是行业对劳动力的需求旺盛，譬如说建筑业。但人口快速下滑也是原因之一。预计到2060年，日本人口将从1.27亿下降到不到9000万。每年适龄劳动人口都减少100万。如今日本失业率仅为3.7%（西班牙人的梦想）。
Image(66).png
Yet despite a tight labour market, real wages continue to tumble (see chart). In May they fell by 3.8% compared with a year earlier—the steepest decline in years. That is despite the government’s use of moral suasion to get companies to hike basic pay in annual wage negotiations with unions this spring. Officials marched into boardrooms to demand higher pay for workers. Households were always likely to feel squeezed after the government raised Japan’s consumption tax in April, from 5% to 8%. Slightly higher inflation, stoked by the Bank of Japan’s massive easing, adds to the effect. But the government was expecting real wages to rise.
尽管劳动力市场供给紧张，但实际工资仍不断摔跟头（见图表）。到今年五月，实际工资同比下滑了3.8%，为近年来幅度最大。在今年春天企业与工会的谈判中，政府甚至以道德劝告的方式促使企业提高了基本工资。官员们踏入谈判会场，要求给工人们加薪。今年四月政府把消费税从5%提高到8%后，日本家庭总感到手头紧张。日本央行的大规模货币宽松引起轻微的通货膨胀，加剧了这种感受。但政府的本意却是要提升实际工资。
One factor contributing to the fall in real wages is deep-seated. Japan’s labour market is divided between regular employees, who are highly paid and protected against being fired, and low-paid, non-regular ones at the bottom of the heap. Non-regular workers filled 36.8% of all jobs in June, a near record. Most new jobs created since Mr Abe came to office have been for non-regular workers. They are not usually part of annual negotiations. Many are women, who end up earning less than men.
实际工资的下降还有深层次原因。日本的劳动力市场分为两部分：一部分为终身雇佣的员工，收入高，不会被解雇；而下层的非终身雇佣员工收入低，且容易被解雇。到今年6月，日本有36.8%的工作岗位上使用的是非终身雇佣员工，几近创下新高。安倍上任后新增加的工作岗位多属于非终身雇佣员工。他们一般不算是年度工资谈判的一部分。而且其中很多还是女性，她们一般比男性赚得更少。
Companies must start hiring more permanent workers. Yet big firms already have too many overpaid and unproductive regular workers, Robert Feldman at Morgan Stanley points out. What is needed is for excessive safeguards for permanent workers to be cut back at the same time as pay and security for non-regulars are beefed up. But with permanent employees still making up the bulk of the workforce, bringing about such a change means spending political capital. Has the prime minister got the guts? Abenomics, and Japan’s recovery, rests on it.
企业应该开始更多使用终身雇佣员工。但摩根·斯坦利的罗伯特·费尔蒙指出，大公司里存在太多收入过高，效率低下的终身雇佣员工。有必要削减终身雇佣员工收入，他们被呵护过度了。同时也要以相同的力度提高非雇佣员工的工资与社会保障。但目前终身雇佣员工在劳动力市场中仍占大头，如此变革，会消耗政府的政治资本。安倍首相是否已考虑得当？安倍经济学，日本的复兴，皆命系于此。
From the print edition: Asia
