前民粹主义者因牛大受创伤 今牧牛场场主始现元气恢复

Bull market
牛市

After a populist goring, Argentina’s beef ranchers are recovering
前民粹主义者因牛大受创伤 今牧牛场场主始现元气恢复

At least one group is happy about Mauricio Macri’s economic reforms
至少一个群体对阿根廷总统毛利西奥·马克里的经济改革表示支持。

COWS, sheep, pigs and llamas are the stars of ExpoRural, Argentina’s biggest agricultural show, which took place on July 18th-29th. They made a racket in their stalls at a Buenos Aires showground as their owners brushed and vacuumed them to prepare for a barnyard-themed beauty contest. Outside, spectators filled a grandstand to watch Hereford bulls parade before a judge, the beasts’ hooves sinking into the mud. Nearby, Toyota, Ford and other manufacturers showed off new 4x4 pickup trucks. House-sized combine harvesters loomed over the crowd.
据英国《经济学人》网站8月2日的消息：7月18日-29日，阿根廷在举办国内规模最大的农业机械展览会（ExpoRural）。牛，羊，猪和美洲驼是本届展会的耀眼明星。在布宜诺斯艾利斯展览场地的一处畜栏里，动物在乱吵乱叫，而农场主则在给牲畜刷毛和吸尘，为这场以“疯狂农场”为主题的选美大赛备战。场地外面，观众站满在看台上，欣赏着蹄子陷入泥泞中的赫里福特(Hereford)公牛从一名裁判前成群结队地行走。旁边的丰田、福特等汽车制造商在展示新款的4x4皮卡货车。房屋大小般的联合收割机在人群上方矗立可见。

Argentina’s economy is in a slump and inflation is at 30% but ranchers are cheerful. After a decade of decline, beef exports began recovering in 2015. Last year Argentina re-entered the list of the world’s top ten beef exporters. Foreign sales surged by 60% in the first half of this year. That is because Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s president since 2015, has ended the populist policies of his predecessors, which ground ranchers into mince.
阿根廷经济处于衰退期，通货膨胀率达到了30%，但是许多农场主却很乐观。阿根廷牛肉产业在历经十年的下滑后终于在2015年开始复苏。2017年，阿根廷已重新挤进了全球十大牛肉出口国的行列。今年上半年，国外销售额猛增了60%。这是因为，阿根廷总统毛利西奥·马克里(Mauricio Macri)从2015年终结了前任的民粹主义政策。

In 2005 Argentina’s then-president, Néstor Kirchner, imposed a 15% tax on beef exports in an effort to hold down inflation, which was around 12%, and to please voters. Each Argentine eats 59kg (129lb) of beef a year; only Uruguayans consume more. When the levy failed to control prices, Kirchner, who died in 2010, banned exports for 180 days. That worked, briefly. Between 2007 and 2011 ranchers sent more than 12m cows, a fifth of the herd, to the slaughterhouse, creating a glut. But then they stopped breeding cattle, or switched to smaller breeds that required less feed and produced less meat. Prices jumped.
2005年，阿根廷时任总统内斯托尔·基什内尔(Nestor Kirchner)对牛肉出口征税15%，以抑制约12%的通货膨胀和取悦选民。阿根廷人均牛肉消费量为59公斤(129磅)，仅次于乌拉圭人。在未能依靠税收抑制价格后，基什内尔（2010年去世）下令禁止牛肉出口180天。这项政策在短时间内发挥了作用。从2007年到2011年，阿根廷农场主将1200多万头奶牛，也即1/5的牛群送到了屠宰场，在市场上引发了供过于求。但他们此后便不再养牛，转向饲养饲料需求较小、肉类产量较少的小型牲畜。物价随后暴涨。

Both producers and consumers suffered. Exports plunged, from 771,000 tonnes in 2005 to 199,000 tonnes in 2015. More than 15,000 farm workers lost their jobs. Some ranchers switched to soyabeans (growing them, not eating tofu themselves); others moved to neighbouring Uruguay. Foreign leather firms, such as Italy’s Italcuer, left the country. The third-largest exporter of beef in 2005, Argentina fell to number 11 by 2013, during the presidency of Kirchner’s widow, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Even tiny Uruguay and Paraguay sold more.
生产者和消费者都受到了影响。牛肉出口额从2005年的77.1万吨骤降至2015年的19.9万吨。15000多名农场工人失去了工作。一些农场主转入了大豆行业(种植大豆，不吃豆腐);其他人搬迁至邻国乌拉圭。意大利Italcuer等国外皮革公司相继撤离阿根廷。在2005年，阿根廷是全球第三大牛肉出口国，但到2013年，也即基什内尔的遗孀克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·基什内尔(Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner)担任总统期间，在全球牛肉出口国排名中已降至第11位。即便小国乌拉圭和巴拉圭的牛肉出口数量都要高于阿根廷。

Mr Macri is now repairing the damage. In his first week in office, in December 2015, he scrapped the export tax and floated the peso, making exports more competitive. He has opened new markets. In January this year China agreed to buy chilled Argentine beef for the first time. On July 23rd Mr Macri boasted in a tweet that the first shipment of Patagonian beef had left Argentina for Japan under an agreement reached in May. Argentina is on course to export 450,000 tonnes of beef this year, up from 312,000 in 2017.
阿根廷总统毛利西奥·马克里正在弥补损失。在2015年12月上任的第一周，他便取消了出口税，推动比索汇率自由浮动，以提高出口竞争力。目前，他已开辟了新市场。今年一月，中国首次同意购买阿根廷冷冻牛肉。7月23日，马克里在推特上发文称，自今年五月份两国签署双边协议后,首批巴塔哥尼亚牛肉已从阿根廷发往日本。2018年，阿根廷牛肉出口量将达到45万吨，超过2017年的31.2万吨。

“We are still very far from capacity,” says Ulises Forte, head of Argentina’s Beef Promotion Institute. Ranchers are rebuilding their herds. That takes time. With interest rates at 40%, borrowing to expand is expensive. Even so, ranchers are bullish. “The situation is improving day by day,” says Mr Forte. Mr Macri, who is expected to run for re-election next year, hopes for a political payoff. “For every 100,000 tonnes more we export, we create 10,000 jobs,” he says. To secure victory, he will have to spread the ranchers’ good cheer to Argentines with other beefs.
阿根廷牛肉销售促进局局长尤利西斯·福特(Ulises Forte)表示:“阿根廷尚远未达到最大产能。”牧场主正再次饲养牛群，这是需要时间的。在银行利率为40%的情况下，借款扩张的成本是高昂的。即便如此，农场主仍是牛气哄哄。尤利西斯·福特说:“情况正在日益改善。”阿根廷总统毛利西奥·马克里预计会在明年大选中竞选连任，也希望捞取政治利益。他表示，“阿根廷每出口10万吨牛肉，就会创造1万个就业岗位”。为了保住胜利，他务必要能够将农场主的愉悦带给到阿根廷其他牢骚满腹的民众。（译：郑瑞竹）

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/08/04/after-a-populist-goring-argentinas-beef-ranchers-are-recovering

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