关于演讲的几点心得
个人今年以来，围绕演讲学习了相关知识，也有一些实践。学习知识方面的努力有，看了一本书《像Ted一样演讲》，学习了《五分钟商学院》关于演讲的内容，拜读了李开复老师公众号中关于演讲沟通技巧的文章；实践方面，参加公司的英文演讲比赛夺魁，作为公司内部讲师，给初级学员讲了为期一天的价值销售课程（共2次），上周代表做了部门战略规划汇报。回想起来，还是有一些经验和收获，现总结演讲的心得如下，为下一步提高打下基础，也分享给不写就出局的战友们。
1、打磨开场和结尾
这是有心理学依据的，首因效应和近因效应让大部分听众关注于演讲的开始和结尾。好的开始是成功的一半，一个干脆有力或者别致的结尾让人印象深刻。
我在做价值销售培训时，就十分注重开场的自我介绍：着重提到自己参加公司演讲比赛的经历，分析了夺冠的原因，同时也联系了前一天学习的DIsc行为分析法，以自己为例，提出非I型人（非影响性人）也可以做好演讲，让大家认识了我，活跃了气氛，课后大家反应良好。结尾则借鉴了李笑来老师提到过的学拿筷子的内容，让学员上台体会和分享换新的方式拿筷子的感受，引出改变习惯的不易以及刻意练习的重要，同样让人印象深刻。
在上周的部门战略报告上，我同样注重开场和结尾。开场以“is No.1","was No.1",“to be No.1”点评前三个部门的演讲内容，同时结合自己部门工作特点，提出“ Last but Not Least"（最后但同样重要）作为演讲主题，确定了演讲的基调。结尾提到人员规划时，我注意到部门员工全为男性，且日常工作要求非常细致，用“张飞绣花”一语一概之，笑果满满。会后大家提及我的报告时，都是说起我的开头或结尾。
2、注意语言表达，多用口头语，尽量生动简洁，富有画面感
演讲毕竟是一个口头沟通方式。让听众更容易听懂，演讲者必须尽可能讲的生动简洁。几个小建议如下：
1）多用类比这种修辞方法，或者多用"相当于“这个词，把一个抽象的东西，用一个具象的东西做类比；把一个不熟悉的东西，用一个熟悉的东西做类比，方面听众理解记忆。
比如，刘润老师讲《五分钟商学院》的巨大意义时，不是抽象的描述，而是具体到给大家节省了多少时间："如果每期《五商》给你节省1小时瞎琢磨的时间，那10万学员，一年260期，相当于帮助大家节省了价值26亿的国民总时间。
2）适当穿插故事
我的经验是，素材需要积累，如刘润老师的《五商》、李笑来老师的《财富自由之路》里就有很多素材，需要我们用心去挖掘，去琢磨，去体会。我用到过的，除了上文提到的拿筷子，还有《五商》中”5 Why"那一课里提到的“马屁股决定火箭腰围”的例子，效果都不错。
3、多花时间准备和练习
没有谁是天生的演讲家，要演讲自如，终极武器就是刻意练习。在英文演讲的前一晚，我自己躲在厨房，用手机录音，讲一遍，听一遍录音，再讲，再听，如此反复，最后达到了熟练。此外，想根本上克服紧张，要做到的就是熟练，最终还是要多做练习。
当然，演讲的技巧还有很多，比如形成自己的风格，适当幽默一下，偶尔自嘲一番，相当于给演讲这盘大餐撒上一点佐料，更有风味。
不过，需要强调的一点，演讲的内容、逻辑是最最重要的。切不可本末倒置，只关注外在表达和技巧。演讲和写作一样，听众希望得到的是干货。这也是我接下来需要重点关注和突破的地方。
文章最后，我附上李开复老师的一个英文演讲，中英文文稿对照，也可以到网上找到视频。既可以学习演讲，也可以学习英文（包括口语表达），还可以了解关于AI的最新动态和专家观点。可谓一举多得。强力推荐！！
以下是李开复博士在纽约哥伦比亚大学工程学院的毕业典礼演讲实录（中英双语版）
中文版
演讲标题：《工程师的人工智能银河系漫游指南》
2017届毕业生们，感谢你们邀请我参与如此盛大的毕业典礼。很荣幸能借此重返我的母校哥伦比亚大学，在一群这么优秀的毕业生、各位的家长、兄弟姐妹及各方嘉宾齐聚的重要场合发表演讲，共享这场毕业盛会的喜悦。
首先，我想对全体毕业生说：我为你们倍感骄傲，祝贺你们学业有成，各位的家人也为你们而骄傲，今天所有的欢呼和掌声属于你们！
34年前，我就坐在你们现在的座位上，那是我人生中最美好的时光。在大学时代，我找到了一生所追寻的专业领域——人工智能，也找到了一生中的最大爱好——桥牌。那时我每周打30个小时桥牌，但直到现在，哥伦比亚大学也没给我颁发桥牌学位。在哥大我还找到了自己的初恋，很幸运，她后来成为我的毕生挚爱。当年，在我的毕业典礼上，我有幸聆听了科幻小说巨匠艾萨克•阿西莫夫的致辞。很抱歉，今天你们只能听我演讲。
李开复博士在哥伦比亚大学的成绩单
不管怎样，我在哥伦比亚大学度过了人生最美好的时光。你们也许会觉得，我或其他毕业演讲者都会说“这些年也是你们人生中最美好的时光”，而我并不打算这么说。
我知道这些年远非你们的人生巅峰，因为最精彩的日子尚未到来。与其寄语今朝，不如展望未来：我相信，未来10年才会是你们最好的人生。
为什么是10年？10年听起来有些遥远，但其实并非如此。如果我们一起回顾2007年5月的光景，你会猛得发现过去这10年内，我们的世界已经发生巨大的改变。
大家一定还记得2007年，史蒂夫·乔布斯发布了iPhone手机吧？那时，我还在使用黑莓手机，我的太太依然用她的诺基亚。
也是在2007年，年轻的参议员贝拉克·奥巴马决定竞选美国总统；而那时的唐纳德·特朗普经常喊的是“你被解雇了”，而不是“让美国再度伟大”。
所以，10年时间足以使人类生活发生重大改变，我认为，未来的10年将比过去10年更让我们瞠目结舌。因为未来10年是人工智能的时代，是AI来临的时代。
作为工程学院学生，你们应该发现人工智能课程的选课人数从80人跃升至800人，这一指标清晰地告诉我们，人工智能正在蓬勃兴起。
1980年，我在哥伦比亚大学初识人工智能。37年来，我一直在人工智能领域从事研究、开发、投资相关的工作。我可以相对自信地预测，未来的人工智能革命在规模上将与工业革命旗鼓相当，甚至有可能带来远比工业革命更快速、更巨大的变革。
李开复博士申请博士时的个人陈述信，他在给教授的信中写道：人工智能是对人类学习过程的阐释，人类思维过程的量化，人类行为的澄清，以及对人的智力的理解。
我所说的不是未来学家关于人工智能不切实际的预测，这是一场工程师与工程师的对话。身为工程师，我们了解人工智能如何运作，随着数据和使用量的增加，人工智能会如何迭代精进，我们也清楚，如何合理估算人工智能在未来10年会带来的影响。
首先，我们来看看今天的人工智能可以做到什么。
今天，我投资的一家人工智能图像处理公司可以利用他们的产品技术让每个人的自拍变得更加漂亮。这家公司的产品已经成为了一种流行风尚，我认识的每个中国电影明星都绝不会允许自己的照片未经该产品美化就轻易发布。这个产品的用户基数有多大？13亿！
今天，我在中国投资的一家人工智能信贷公司能够在数秒内完成每笔贷款审批，其坏账率远低于一名信贷人员需要数日才能审核完的传统繁琐贷款申请。这家公司成立不到2年时间，今年预估就能发放约三千万笔贷款，几乎超过任何一家我所知的传统银行。
今天，我投资的一家人工智能人脸识别公司，他们的产品能够在300万张人脸中识别出任一张面孔，精准度远超人类。如果将这款软件安装到世界各地的机场，基本上就能阻止已知的恐怖分子或通缉犯登上任何一架民航客机。
以上3家人工智能公司目前的总估值接近100亿美元。这个数值与未来10年人工智能即将创造出的巨大产业价值相比，只能算是些零头小钱。
未来10年，所有金融企业都将发生天翻地覆的变化，因为人工智能将取代交易员、银行职员、会计师、分析员和保险经纪人。去年，我尝试采用智能投资算法获得了比我的私人理财顾问高八倍的收益——这提醒我，回家后就可以把这位私人理财顾问给辞退了。
未来10年，人工智能将替代大多数工厂工人、助理、顾问和中介。但人工智能也不局限于简单工作。人工智能还会替代部分新闻记者、医生和教师。你的人工智能助理将比你更了解你今晚想吃什么，你该去哪里度假，你想跟谁约会。
还有更多，10年后机械化的人工智能将会变得稳定可靠。人工智能运用在自动驾驶将比人类驾驶更加安全。今天还比较初级的家用Roomba扫地机器人未来会让我们刮目相看：机器人将学会做饭、洗衣服、做保洁，帮助人类分担所有繁重的家务劳动。
10年后，我们将进入一个富足的丰产时代，因为人工智能可以为人类创造巨大的价值，帮助我们消除贫穷和饥饿。我们每个人也将获得更多时间和自由，来做我们爱做的事情。
10年后，我们也将进入一个焦虑的迷惘时代，因为人工智能将会取代一半的人类工作， 很多人将因为失业、得不到自我实现而陷入沮丧。到那时，你们当中很多人将成为家长，也必然会考虑该如何提升孩子们的教育，才能避免他们被人工智能取代。
以上预测并不是基于人类神经元数量与机器仿真的神经元数量之间的简单对比，相反，我的预测是一个工程师根据现有算法、市场供需情况、劳动力信息等方面所演绎出来的推论。
在创新工场，我们已经募集超过10亿美元的资金用于投资人工智能，日本软银更是启动了1000亿美元的愿景基金。发展超过四五十年的IBM、微软、和近代的谷歌、Facebook等科技巨头，都相继宣布自己是人工智能公司。就算你怀疑我的预言，你大概不好怀疑这些科技巨头。
所以，对于你们这些站在科技前沿、绝顶聪明的工程师而言，2027年将成为你们人生最巅峰的高点。万一你不慎错过了这场人工智能革命，未来10年也可能落入你人生最低谷的惨况。
那么，如何才能不错过人工智能时代，确保你向人生巅峰而行呢？我提出三个建议：
我的第一个建议：拥抱必将到来的人工智能
把你的职业选择对准人工智能赛道，面对所有重大变革与机遇，你们首先需要开放的心态来迎接人工智能。对变革有所畏惧绝对正常，正如马克•吐温所说，“勇气来自抵抗恐惧并战胜恐惧，而不是来自没有恐惧。”
你们过往的努力可以帮助你们坦然面对、欣然接纳或热情拥抱未来的改变——这些改变将推动你找到新的人生方向。
面对未来，你们必须要选择热情拥抱人工智能。即便你所在领域的第一个人工智能工具看上去是那么脆弱不堪，相信我，只要有更多的数据，它们很快就能进步。
刚才我提到的3家软件公司，他们的第一代产品确实状况百出，自拍美化功能反而把好多人的脸蛋给变丑了，贷款判断不准也曾造成数百万元损失，图像辨识我的脸居然把我误判为某脱口秀主持人。但假以时日，当人工智能处理越来越多的数据后，人工智能的自我学习能力就能让这些产品在特定领域的能力远远超越人类。人工智能算法还不只是超过人类这么简单，它们不会疲倦，不会抱怨，不会罢工，人工智能还具有无穷的规模化潜力。
况且，伴随着硬件、软件和网络带宽成本的下降，人工智能的成本几乎就是电费了。
所以，不管你选择什么工作领域，首先要使用人工智能工具。如果你是软件工程师，你可以用人工智能工具来检查和完善代码，找到可复用的代码，甚至用AI来写代码。组建团队时，用人工智能工具来招聘和挑选人才。如果你准备创业，可以用人工智能工具来管理订单并优化获利，也可以用人工智能工具来替代客服和销售人员。你可以用机器人来制造产品，使用自动驾驶车辆来配送商品。
人类与人工智能协作的结果是1+1=3。举例来说，如果一个医生能正确诊断癌症，并能在100个患者中拯救70个生命，而一个早期人工智能工具可以在100个患者中拯救60个生命。将医生与人工智能结合后，也许他们就能增加拯救80个生命。而且，当人工智能工具优化到能够拯救80个生命时，将人工智能与医生结合，或许就能够拯救90个生命。
所以，不要被动地接受人工智能，而应积极拥抱人工智能，探索人工智能的可能，找到人工智能为你创造价值的所有可行性。你们要学会使用人工智能，更快、更聪明地构建人类与人工智能间的协作关系。你们会像第一个使用文字处理软件的记者，或第一个使用电子表格软件的会计师，或第一个使用Photoshop图像处理软件的摄影师一样，获得巨大的收益。此外，与传统软件工具相比，人工智能的进化速度快得多，应用范围广得多，只有作为积极拥抱的引领者，你在人工智能工具的领先地位才得以巩固并增长。
我的第二个建议：肩负起工程师的使命。
众所周知，数百上千年以来，医生们遵循着希波克拉底誓词，承担着神圣的救死扶伤的神圣使命。在人工智能时代，我认为工程师的使命同样神圣，甚至更加沉重。
为什么这样说？因为在人工智能时代，作为毕业于顶级学府的顶尖工程师，你们拥有巨大的权力。请不要忘记世界上最伟大的哲学家——蜘蛛侠的那句名言：“权力越大，责任越重”。
在人工智能时代，自动或半自动的算法可以负责投资决策、照看儿童、驾驶汽车、完成医疗手术。未来的人工智能产品将直接影响人们的财产、健康甚至是生命，而你们就是这些产品的设计者、制造者。
作为工程师，我们不能背弃我们的道德和责任，我们需要在方方面面都做到严谨、勤勉、遵守道德。这不仅仅指架构和编码，还包含设计、测试、训练机器学习模型以及下载更新的参数等等。
第一代安全气囊拯救了许多人的生命，但同时由于设计和使用说明不完善，没有充分考虑儿童娇小的体形，也意外地导致了一些儿童的死亡。
所以你们的首要使命是对你们的用户负责，确保你们的产品安全、周密、有用。应该说不仅仅产品安全，你们还有绝对的责任去预见和防止潜在的技术失控对人类带来威胁。所以请大声地对“自动杀人机器”以及“用户隐私数据交易”说不！
你们的第二层使命是对自己负责，在人工智能时代，你不仅仅是与其他人竞争，你还在和人工智能竞争。你有责任优先解决疑难问题，而不是把你的时间浪费在机器就能胜任的事务上。不要选择一份对你毫无挑战性的工作，无论在哪个领域，都勇于冒险、勤于学习，只有这样，你才能成为最独特和最有价值的人类成员。要坚持创新和创造——人工智能的优势在于优化，而非从零创新。
各位的最后一项使命是作为工程师，用你们的选择让这个世界更加美好：选择拯救生命，而非残害生命；选择激励他人，而非打压别人；选择在富有同情心、不贪婪的机构工作；选择心怀世界和平而非妄图主宰世界的雇主。
我的最后一个建议：追随我心
谈了这么多严肃的技术话题，我接下来要说的观点可能在这儿听起来有些不恰当，但却是我的肺腑之言。
4年前，我被诊断患上淋巴癌第四期，当时我面对的无情事实：我的生命可能就只剩下短短几个月。
在那段前路未卜的时间，我对生命的意义深思良多。我意识到我所有的成就，包括在等待30多年后终于来到的人工智能时代，对我来说其实毫无意义。我意识到我过去所追求的科技、产品、投资、事业，我重视各种事情的优先级完全本末倒置。我忽视了我的家庭，我父亲去世了，我母亲已几乎不认得我，我的孩子们也不知不觉都长大了。
在治疗期间，我读了布朗妮·维尔（Bronnie Ware）的一本书，书中记录了临终病人一生中最后悔的事情。作者提到，没有一个人会为当年不够认真工作、不够努力加班、或财产积攒不足而后悔。人们临终时最最盼望的，是希望能再有机会花更多时间与自己所爱的人在一起。
幸运的是，目前我的病情已缓解稳定，所以今天我才能来到哥大和你们在一起。如今，我会花更多的时间陪伴家人，我把家搬到了离我母亲更近的住处，无论出差还是单纯出游，我都会尽量和我妻子一起出行。孩子们回家时，我会从工作中抽出两三周、而不是仅是两三天的时间来陪伴他们。
我同时还花更多的时间来认识新朋友，我会用周末时间与好朋友出游，我带领公司员工去硅谷度了一周的假期——硅谷对他们来说犹如圣地一般，我约见社群平台上向我提问的年轻人，我联系多年前我曾经冒犯过的人，请求他们的谅解。我写了一本书并拍摄纪录片，分享我与死神擦肩而过所学到的一切。
这段直面死亡的经历不仅改变了我的人生和价值观，还让我更清晰认识到人工智能对于人类的真正意义。
埃隆·马斯克和史蒂芬·霍金已经给出了他们的观点，他们认为机器将全面取代人类，而人类能仅存的选择：要么控制AI，要么成为AI。这段直面死亡的经历，让我想对人工智能的未来提出另一版结局。
毫无疑问，人工智能凭借精准的决策和产出，在很多分析型工作上已经或必将超过人类。但人类并不是因为会做这些工作而成为人类，我们之所以为人类，是因为我们拥有爱的能力。
当我们看见初生的婴儿，当我们一见钟情陷入爱河，当朋友贴近倾听我们分享经历，当我们通过帮助别人而实现自我……人类的爱就在那里。所有这些都表明，我们目前还远远不够充分理解人类的“内心”，更不要说复制它了。我们知道，爱和被爱的能力是人类所独有的，我们渴望爱和被爱，这就是我们生命的意义所在。
带着这个信念，我们就会知道应该接下来该怎么做。首先我们应认可并感恩我们被爱的事实，我们可以回馈他人的爱，甚至加入更多的爱。最终达到爱的最高境界：不断将爱传递下去，不求回报地去爱。
回到人工智能的话题，爱让人类有别于人工智能。不要相信科幻电影里描绘的人工智能的爱（或感情），我可以负责任地告诉你们，人工智能不会有爱，它们甚至没有感情和自我意识。AlphaGo虽然能击败世界棋手冠军，但是它体验不到手谈的乐趣，胜利不会为它带来愉悦感，也不会让它激动到产生想要拥抱一位他爱的人的渴望。
在未来，即便人工智能诊疗的准确率是人类医生的10倍，但是我们还是不希望从机器冷冰冰的话语里听到“您患有第四期淋巴癌，有70%的机率会在五年内死亡”。我们更希望得到医生的关爱，他们会倾听我们的抱怨，为我们打气，他们会说，“李开复也得了同样的淋巴癌，但经过治疗后稳定下来，所以你也要保持希望。医生可能来到家里定期出诊，我们随时能与医生沟通交流。这些医生的关爱会让我们感到舒坦，给我们更大的信心，这种安慰剂效应的确可能有助于提升康复几率。
此前提到的失业问题不就这么缓解了么？这种“关爱型医生”的数量将超出现有医生的数量。被机器取代的人可以投身于需要关爱及经验分享的行业——例如，做一名热情洋溢的导游，充满关爱的礼宾人员，风趣幽默的调酒师，极具魅力的寿司大厨。随着各类“关爱专家”头衔的出现，很多新兴服务业的工作岗位也将被创造出来。这些工作不一定非要是传统意义上的“工作”，也可能是孤儿院或养老院提供服务的志愿者。这些工作不但能带给人们自我实现的自豪感和满足感，更重要的是，它们能让我们的地球充满爱与快乐。
人类已制造出许多以任务为导向的人工智能，在每个具体任务上它们的表现远超人脑，这正是我37年前的梦想。作为一个计算机科学家，我为我们所取得的科技进步成就而自豪。但我现在觉得，自己也许追逐错了方向——人类最重要的器官，不是大脑，而是内心。
我承认，我花了太长的时间才认识到这一点。我对你们的期望是，随着你们的事业开始腾飞，人生开始步入新的阶段，你们在实现人生目标的过程中不仅要利用你们聪慧的大脑，更要遵从你们的内心。
未来的重任落在你们的肩头。我相信，无论未来如何改变，只要遵从内心的指引，下一个10年必将成为你们人生中最辉煌灿烂的10年！
感谢你们，2017届毕业生。
注：本文演讲标题来自美国科技宅男必读经典科幻小说《银河系漫游指南》（The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy）
英文版
An Engineer’s Guide to the Artificial Intelligence Galaxy
Commencement Speech, Engineering School of Columbia University
May 15, 2017 Class Day
By Dr. Kai-Fu Lee
Founder & CEO, Sinovation Ventures
President, Sinovation Ventures Artificial Intelligence Institute
Thank
you, Class of 2017. Thank you so much for inviting me to speak at this
wonderful commencement ceremony. It’s an honor to be back at Columbia to
address this distinguished group of graduates, parents, siblings and
special guests. We’ve all gathered to share in the joy of this day.
First,
I want to say to you graduates: I am so proud of all of you. You did
it! Your families are proud of you. You have earned this day.
I
remember sitting where you are 34 years ago, feeling that these were the
best years of my life. I found the profession of my life: artificial
intelligence. I found the hobby of my life -- bridge; I played 30 hours a
week, but to this date Columbia still wouldn’t give me a degree in it.
And I had my first date while at Columbia, and she became the love of my
life. And finally, on commencement day, I got to sit and listen to
Isaac Asimov, the famous science fiction writer. I’m sorry that you only
get me.
Anyway, I had the best years of my life. This is where
you expect me, or any commencement speaker to say, “These are the best
years of your lives.” But I am not going to say that.
I know that
these are far from the best years of your lives. I know that your best
days are yet to come. To be specific, my hope for you is that the next
10 years will be the best years in your lives
Why 10 years? 10
years seem so far away. But really it is not. Checking in with May 2007
seems like a good way to visualize what 10 years can do in our world.
It
is interesting to remember that in 2007, Steve Jobs introduced the
iPhone. Back then, I was still using my Blackberry, and my wife was
still using her Nokia.
And in 2007, a young senator Barack Obama,
decided to run for President. And back in 2007, Donald Trump was still
saying, “You are fired” rather than “Make America Great Again.”
So
10 years can do a lot, but the next 10 will do much much more than the
last 10. Why? Because, the next decade will be the Age of Artificial
Intelligence, or AI.
As students, you’ve probably seen AI course enrollment go from 80 to 800. And that certainly is one leading indicator.
I
was introduced to AI at Columbia in 1980. As someone who has worked for
37 years on research, development, and investment in AI, I can speak
with some authority that – AI will be a revolution on the scale of the
Industrial Revolution, probably larger, and definitely faster.
But
this is not a hand-wavy futurist AI talk. This is an
engineer-to-engineer talk. We know that AI works. We know that AI gets
better with more data and more use. We know how to extrapolate it to
measure its impact in ten years.
Let’s first see what AI can do today.
Today,
an AI image processing company that I invested in can make people’s
selfies more beautiful, so much so that every Chinese movie star I know
doesn’t allow her photo to be published without it. Its user base? 1.3
billion.
Today, an AI loan company that I invested in China can
approve a loan in seconds, with a default rate much lower than a human
loan officer who would takes days. This company is less than two years
old, but will underwrite almost 30 million loans this year, more than
almost any bank.
Today, an AI facial recognition company that I
invested in can recognize any face from 3 million faces, with
super-human accuracy. If installed in all the airports around the world,
it would essentially prevent known terrorists or wanted criminals from
entering any airplane.
These three AI companies are worth a total
of about $10 billion. But that’s loose change compared to what can be
built in the next 10 years.
In the next 10 years, all financial
companies will be turned upside-down, with AI replacing traders,
bankers, accountants, research analysts, and insurance companies. Last
year, my AI investment algorithm returned 8 times more than my private
banker. That reminds me – when I go home I am going to fire my private
banker.
In the next 10 years, AI will replace most factory
workers, assistants, advisors, and middlemen. But AI is not limited to
simple jobs. AI will also replace many reporters, doctors, and teachers.
Your AI assistant will know better than you what you would like to eat
tonight, where you should go on vacation, and whom you should date.
But
it doesn’t stop there. In 10 years, mechanical AI will become reliable.
AI will be safer at driving cars than people, sweeping changes, as it
were, brought by the lowly Roomba…. will grow up and cook, wash, clean
and handle all the household drudgery for us.
In 10 years, because
AI will make so much money for humanity, we will enter the Age of
Plenty, making strides to eradicate poverty and hunger, and giving all
of us more spare time and freedom to do what we love.
In 10 years,
because AI will replace half of human jobs, we will enter the Age of
Confusion, and many people will become depressed as they lose the jobs
and the corresponding self-actualization. And many of you will become
parents concerned with how to improve education in order to prevent your
children from being replaced by AI.
These predictions are not
based on some hand-wavy comparison of the number of neurons possessed by
humans and AI simulators. Rather, they are based on an engineer’s
extrapolation based on known algorithms, and the real marketplace and
workforce.
In my company, we have raised over $1 billion to invest
in these developments. Softbank has launched a $100 billion Vision
Fund. The tech giants of the past 50 years – IBM, Microsoft, Google,
Facebook, have all declared themselves to be AI companies. So even if
you doubt me, you probably should not doubt all of them.
So, for
leading edge, super smart engineers like yourselves, 2027 should be the
best of times in your lives. Unless you miss the AI revolution, in which
case it may turn into the worst times in your lives.
Now let me give you three pieces of advice – how not to miss the Age of AI, so that you can have the time of your life.
My first is: Embrace AI, and align your career by betting on its inevitability.
Like all big change, AI requires you to have an open mind. It’s OK to be fearful of change.
As Mark Twain explained, “Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear. Not absence of fear.”
Your hard work has prepared you to confront, or simply accept, or warmly embrace - change that will push you in new directions.
Given
what lies ahead, you must warmly embrace AI. While the first AI tools
in your industry may appear fragile, be assured they will get better
with data.
The three software companies I mentioned earlier, when
they were first launched: often made people uglier, lost millions in bad
loans, and thought I was some talk show celebrity. But given time and
much more data, their self-learning made them dramatically better than
people. Not only are they better, they don’t get tired nor emotional.
They don’t go on strike, and they are infinitely scalable.
With hardware, software, and networking costs coming down, all they cost is electricity.
So
whatever domain you choose, be the first to use AI tools. If you’re a
software engineer, use AI tools to check and optimize your code, to find
re-usable code, or even to write new code. Use AI tools to hire and
build your team. If you start your own company, use AI tools to manage
your books and maximize your profits. Use AI tools to replace your
customer support and your salespeople. Use robots to produce your goods
and autonomous vehicles to deliver them.
The symbiotic combination
of humans and AI is all about 1+1=3. For example, when a doctor can
correctly diagnose cancer, and save 70 lives out of 100, and an early AI
tool can save 60 lives out of 100 -- together perhaps they can save 80
lives. And when the AI tool improves to saving 80 lives, perhaps
together they can save 90. So do not passively accept AI, but embrace
AI, seek out AI, and find every which way that AI can help you. Learn
AI, and find clever ways to build that symbiotic relationship earlier.
Just like the reporter who first found word processing, the accountant
who first used a spreadsheet, the first photographer who applied
Photoshop, you will have an edge. In addition, AI will evolve faster and
more broadly than these tools, and your edge will grow and become
sustainable.
My second piece of advice is: Uphold your responsibility as an engineer.
We
all know that for centuries physicians took the Hippocratic Oath, as a
responsibility to treat human life as sacred. In the age of AI, I think
engineers’ responsibilities are equally sacred, or even greater.
Why?
Because as top engineering graduates from a top school, during the Age
of AI, you are the ones with the power. But please remember what the
world’s greatest philosopher, Spiderman, said: "with great power comes
great responsibility."
In the Age of AI, autonomous and
semi-autonomous algorithms will invest money, take care of children,
drive cars, and conduct surgery. You will be the ones who build these
products, which will impact people’s possessions, health, and even
lives.
As engineers, we cannot abandon our conscience and sense of
responsibility. We need to be thorough, diligent, and ethical, not just
in the architecture and coding, but also in the design, in the testing,
in running the machine learning training, and in downloading the
updated parameters.
The first airbags saved many lives, but they
also accidentally killed some children, due to the lack of adequate
design and instructions that adequately considered children’s smaller
size.
So your first responsibilities are to your users, to making
your product safe, thoughtful, and usable. And more than “product
safety.” You also have a responsibility to foresee and prevent the
potential risks of technology to users from getting out of hand. So
please speak up strongly against “autonomous weapons” or “bartering or
sales of privacy data.”
Your second responsibility is to yourself.
In the Age of AI, you are not just competing with other people, but
also with AI. You have a responsibility to work on the hard problems,
and avoid wasting your time doing what machines will be able to do.
Don’t waste your talent repeating what you learned at school. Don’t
accept a job that doesn’t challenge you. Take risks and learn vigorously
and rigorously so that you can become the best in something specific
and useful, whatever your field. Be creative and inventive. AI is great
at optimizing, but AI cannot invent something new.
Your final
responsibility is to make the world a better place with your choices as
an engineer. Choose jobs that save lives, not destroy them. Choose jobs
that empower people, not demoralize them. Work for organizations with
more compassion than greed, and for people who care more about world
peace than world domination.
And my last advice: Be in touch with your heart.
After
all that serious tech talk, what I am going to talk about next may seem
a little bit out-of place. But it comes from my heart.
Four years
ago, I was diagnosed with 4th stage lymphoma. I faced the real
possibility that my remaining time here was measured in months.
During
that time of ultimate uncertainty, I thought a lot about my life. I
came to realize that my accomplishments, and even the arrival of AI
after waiting 30 years meant nothing to me.
I came to realize that
by chasing these technologies, products, investments, and my career, my
priorities were out-of-order. I neglected my family. My father had
passed away. My mother barely remembered me. My kids had grown up.
One
of the books I read during my illness was Bronnie Ware’s book about the
regrets of people on their deathbeds. She found that no one wished
they’d worked harder or spent more time at the office or accumulated
more possessions. People’s top wish was that they had spent more time,
sharing their love of their loved ones.
Fortunately, I am now in
remission so I am here with you today. I am spending much more time with
my family. I moved closer to my mother. I travel with my wife, whether
on business or for pleasure. When my kids come home, I would take not
two or three days off from work, but two or three weeks.
I also
spent more time meaningfully connecting with more people. I spent
weekends traveling with my best friends. I took my company on a one-week
vacation to Silicon Valley -- their Mecca. I met with young people who
sent me questions on Facebook. I reached out to people I offended years
ago and asked for their forgiveness and friendship. I wrote a book and
shot a documentary to share what I had learned from my near-death
experience.
My near-death experience not only changed my life and
my values, it gave me an enlightened view about what AI should mean for
humanity. Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have given us their view, a view
where machines supersede humans completely, and we are to control them
or become them.
With my near-death experience, I would like to
offer an alternate ending to their prediction of the AI future. Surely
AI has, or will beat us on many analytical tasks with definitive
decisions and outcomes. But these tasks are not what make us human. What
makes us human is that we are able to love.
The moment when we
see our new-born babies; the feeling of love-at-first-sight; the warm
feeling from friends who listen to us empathetically; the feeling of
self-actualization when we help someone in need. Or if you want
empirical proof, the fact that the placebo effect works. These all
demonstrate that we are far from understanding the human “heart”, let
alone replicating it. But we do know that humans uniquely are able to
love and be loved. Humans want to love and be loved. That loving and
being loved are what makes our lives worthwhile.
With this belief,
we now know what we must do. At a minimum, recognize and be thankful
that we are loved. If we can do better, return the love, and maybe a
little bit more. Finally, the highest level of love: Pay it forward.
Give love unconditionally.
Coming back to our AI theme, love
differentiates us from AI. Despite what science fiction movies may
portray, I can tell you responsibly that AI programs cannot love. They
don’t even have feelings or self-consciousness. AlphaGo may beat the
world champion, but it has no fun playing the game, feels no happiness
from winning, has no desire to hug a loved one after it wins.
And
in the future, even if an AI diagnostic tool is 10 times more accurate
than doctors, patients will not want a cold pronouncement from the tool:
“you have 4th stage lymphoma and a 70% likelihood of dying within 5
years.” Patients will want a “doctor of love” who listens to our
complaints, gives us encouragement, like “Kai-Fu had the same lymphoma,
and he survived, so you can too”, and perhaps visits us at home, and is
always available to talk to us. This kind of “doctor of love” will not
only make us feel better, and have greater confidence, but a placebo
effect will kick in and increase our likelihood of recuperation.
This
will solve the AI employment problem we mentioned earlier. The number
of “doctors of love” will outnumber today’s doctors. The displaced
workers can take up careers spreading love and experiences – whether a
passionate tour guide, an attentive concierge, a funny bartender, an
infectious sushi chef. With the new “experts of love” titles many new
kind of service jobs will be created. And they don’t have to be “jobs”,
they can be volunteers, at an orphanage or a retirement home. This will
give people jobs that AI cannot take away. They will do the job with
pride and a strong sense of self-actualization. Most importantly, this
will fill our planet with love and joy.
We’ve built many
task-oriented AI that is much better than our brains. That was my dream
37 years ago. As a hard-core computer scientist, I’m proud that we’ve
come so far. But now I realize that I went after the wrong organ. The
most important part of the human body is not the brain, but the heart.
That’s
a lesson that took me, I confess, too long to learn. My hope for all of
you, as your careers blossom and your lives take shape, is that you
will approach your lives with all the brains you certainly have, but
also, above all, with all the heart you can muster.
It will be up
to you to carry this forward, but I have confidence: if you let your
heart be your guide, you’ll find your way through all of the massive
changes that lie ahead, and make the next 10 years the best years of
your lives.
Thank you, Class of 2017.
