From deprivation to daffodils世界经

英文部分来自“经济学人”杂志。译文是个人学习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝转载或用于任何商业用途。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。

But James Stettler, a capital-goods analystat Barclays Capital, notes that “no one’s really pushing the button on capex yet”. And companies which might benefit from an investment boom are not getting carried away. In a recent profits statement Caterpillar, a maker of bulldozers and excavators,said that, while tax reform and infrastructure spending would be good for its businesses, it would not expect to see large benefits until at least 2018. So far the recovery in global capital spending is in line with what you would expect from the recovery in global profits, says Joseph Lupton of JP Morgan Chase.

但巴克莱资本的资本品分析师詹姆斯·斯特特勒（James Stettler）指出，“没人真的按下了资本支出的开关”。将受益于投资热潮的那些公司也并没有冲昏了头脑。在最新的利润报告中，推土机和挖掘机制造商卡特彼勒表示，虽然税收改革和基础设施支出将对其业务有利，该公司预计至少到2018年不会看到巨大的收益。摩根大通银行的Joseph Lupton说，到目前为止全球资本支出的恢复符合人们对全球利润复苏的预期。

The signs of recovery are encouraging.But can they be trusted? The last few bursts of optimism about the global economy all petered out. In 2010 the rebound from a deep rich-world recession was pulled back to earth by the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro area. As soon as Europe gingerly emerged from recession in mid-2013, hints from America’s Federal Reserve that its bond-buying programme would soon tail off prompted a stampede out of emerging markets. This “taper tantrum” blew over in a few months, but it had repercussions.The prospect of tighter monetary policy in America, however distant, hit the supply of credit in emerging markets. The squeeze was made worse in 2014 when the oil price fell from over $100 a barrel to half that in just a few months. The price of other industrial raw materials, which had settled onto a plateau after peaking in 2011, began to fall.The subsequent slump in investment was enough to drag big commodity exporters, such as Brazil and Russia, into recession.

复苏的迹象令人欢欣鼓舞。但它们值得信赖吗？最近爆发的几次对全球经济的乐观情绪最终都归于沉寂。 2010年，受欧元区主权债务危机的影响，发达国家深度衰退中的反弹偃旗息鼓。2013年年中欧洲刚刚战战兢兢地走出衰退，美国联邦储备委员会就暗示，其债券购买计划很快就要退出，这推动了资本从新兴市场蜂拥而逃。虽说这种“削减量化宽松恐惧”只持续了几个月，但是它造成了影响。美国紧缩货币政策的前景，尽管远在千里之外，还是打击了新兴市场的信贷供应。 仅仅几个月的时间，原油价格就从每桶100美元跌到只有一半价格，这使得2014的经济更加雪上加霜。其他工业原材料的价格在2011年达到高峰之后原已稳定下来，随后也开始下跌。之后的投资下滑足以拖累巴西和俄罗斯等商品出口大国陷入衰退。

Even so, by the end of 2015 the Fed was sufficiently confident about the outlook to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first such increase in a decade. More increases were expected in relatively short order. But the jitters about China, and then Brexit, meant that it was a full year before the next. It has now followed up with another increase in much shorter order.

即使如此，到2015年年底，美联储曾对前景充满信心，并将基准利率提高了0.25个百分点，这是十年来的首次。本来预期在较短的时间内利率还会有几次上调，但由于对中国的担心以及之后对英国脱欧的忧虑，第二次利率上调等了一整年。下次利率上调会在很短的时间内发生。

False dawns were perhaps to be expected: recoveries from debt crises are painfully slow. Spending suffers as borrowers whittle away their debts. Banks are reluctant to write off old, souring loans and so are unable to make fresh new ones.And the world has had to shake off not one debt crisis, but three:the subprime crisis in America; the sovereign-debt crunch in Europe;then the bust in corporate borrowing in emerging markets.

这也可能只是黎明的假象：从债务危机中复苏是痛苦而缓慢的。当借款人清除债务时，支出会减少。银行不愿意注销老的坏账，因此不能发放新的贷款，世界已经不得不摆脱了好几次债务危机，不是一次是三次：美国次贷危机; 欧洲主权债务紧缩; 以及新兴市场企业借贷的破产。

But the initial and most painful stage of economic adjustment in emerging markets is coming to an end. Current-account deficits have narrowed, leaving most countries less reliant on foreign borrowing. Their currencies are a lot more competitive. And interest rates are high, so there is scope to relax monetary policy to boost demand. Business spending is already rising in response.

但新兴市场经济调整最初和最痛苦的阶段即将结束。经常项目赤字已经缩小，大多数国家减少了对外借款的依赖。他们的货币更有竞争力。由于利率高企，所以有放宽货币政策，推动需求增长的空间。商业已经做出反应，支出已经在上升。

The breadth of the improvement—from Asia to Europe and America—makes for greater confidence that a pick-up is in train. A broad trend is a good proxy for an established trend, notes Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads Macro, a research firm. Nevertheless,some countries are in better shape than others. India and Indonesia recovered quickly from the taper tantrum; their GDP growth has been fairly strong and steady. At the other end of the spectrum,Turkey and (to a lesser extent) South Africa look unlikely to see a big revival soon.

从亚洲，欧洲到美国，改善的广泛程度使我们更有底气说复苏已经走上了正轨。研究公司Talking Heads Macro的Manoj Pradhan指出广泛程度是趋势已经成型的很好的指标。然而，一些国家比其他国家情况更好些。印度和印度尼西亚从削减量化宽松恐惧中迅速恢复出来;他们的GDP增长相当强劲和稳定。另一方面，土耳其和（在较小程度上）南非似乎不太可能很快看到像样的复苏。

In the middle, there are signs that brutal recessions in two of the largest emerging markets, Russia and Brazil, are slowly coming to an end. Inflation in both countries is receding, restoring spending power to consumers.In Russia inflation fell to 4.6% in February, down from a peak of 16.9% two years ago. In the three months ending in September, GDP growth probably turned positive, according to the central bank,which has cut its main interest rate from17% in January 2015 to 10% today; more cuts are likely. Manufacturing activity grew in each of the seven months to February, according to a survey of purchasing managers published by Markit, a data provider.

两者之间，有迹象表明，最大的两个新兴市场俄罗斯和巴西的严重衰退正在缓慢地结束。两国的通货膨胀正在减退，消费者购买力正在恢复。俄罗斯的通货膨胀率从两年前的峰值16.9％下降至二月份的4.6％。中央银行预测，在截至9月份的三个月内，GDP将止跌返正。央行的主要利率从2015年1月的17％降至现在的10％。还有进一步削减的可能性。数据提供商Markit发布的一份关于采购经理的调查显示，到2月份为止制造业增长已经持续了七个月，并且每个月都有增长。

Brazil’s economy shrank again in the final months of 2016, but with inflation tumbling towards the 4.5% target, its central bank has cut its benchmark rate by two percentage points, to 12.25%, since October.Further cuts are again likely. Other commodity producers in Latin America (bar Mexico, where the peso has weakened since Mr Trump was elected) are also relaxing monetary policy.

巴西经济在2016年的最后几个月再次收缩，但随着通货膨胀率下滑至4.5％的目标，巴西央行10月以来已将基准利率下调了两个百分点至12.25％。进一步下调也很有可能。拉丁美洲的其他商品生产商（除墨西哥以外，自特朗普当选以来，墨西哥比索走弱）也放松了货币政策。