经济学人精读 | 埃航失事：波音的信誉危机（2）

上期原文中，作者从埃航飞机失事出发，引出了人们对波音737MAX8型飞机可能存在的设计缺陷的担忧。作者回顾了在飞机制造产业，西方两大巨头波音和空客曾经的的辉煌业绩，之后，作者笔锋一转，提出警告：这次的坠机事件可能预示着西方主导飞机产业时代的终结。作者是如何得出这个结论的呢，除了显而易见的因事故引发的声誉危机之外，还有哪些深层次的原因？我们一起来看本期文章。

外刊原文

This plays into the worry that a new technological phase is under way. Aircraft are becoming autonomous, as computers take charge. This promises safer, more efficient flying, but the interaction between human pilots and machines is still unpredictable and experimental. In the Indonesian crash the pilots fought a losing battle against anti-stalling（防失速） software that forced the plane’s nose down at least 20 times.

The industry’s technical complexity is amplified by its organisational complexity. In the 1990s a few Western airlines dominated and a handful of regulators had global clout. Now there are hundreds of airlines and 290,000 pilots worldwide. In 2018, for the first time, less than half of the global fleet was based in the West. Maintaining common standards on training and procedures is harder. China and other countries want a bigger say. The credibility of American regulators has slipped because they have let domestic competition decline. This suggests they are cosy with industry.

Then comes geopolitics（地缘政治）. With their hubs in Seattle and Toulouse（图卢兹）, Boeing and Airbus are among the West’s largest exporters and a rare example of an industry in which China cannot compete. It would be depressing, but not impossible, if safety decisions were influenced by trade tensions. Over time, China and India may insist that the duopoly make more aircraft within their borders, to capture more jobs and intellectual property. That could require a restructuring（重组） of how both firms manufacture. Rows（争吵） over aircraft emissions will further complicate the debate.

Neither Boeing nor Airbus is about to go bust（破产）. Any flaw in the MAX 8 will probably be resolved, as battery problems in the 787 Dreamliner were in 2013.Boeing has $12.7bn of cash and bank lines to cushion it from the reputational crisis. Both firms are ultimately backed by governments. In any case, demand for planes will grow. But ahead lie environmental and technological uncertainty, organisational complexity and geopolitical tension. The years of bumper margins（丰厚利润） may be over.

精读讲解

Part 1

This plays into the worry that a new technological phase is under way. Aircraft are becoming autonomous, as computers take charge. This promises safer, more efficient flying, but the interaction between human pilots and machines is stillunpredictable and experimental. In the Indonesian crash the pilots fought a losing battle againstanti-stalling software that forced the plane’s nose down at least 20 times.

中译：这加剧了人们对新技术迭代中本来就有的担忧。随着计算机的应用，飞机变得越来越智能。这意味着飞行将更安全、更高效，但人类飞行员与机器之间的互动仍是不可预测的，而且还处于实验阶段。在印尼坠机事件中，飞机上安装的防失速系统迫使飞机机头下坠至少20次，飞行员虽一直与之抗争，但最终仍然吃了败仗。

phase /fez/  n. A phase is a particular stage in a process or in the gradual development of something. 阶段

例句：The crisis is entering a crucial, critical phase.

危机正进入一个至关重要的决定性阶段。

under way  进行中的

autonomous /ɔ'tɑnəməs/  adj. 自治的；自主的；自发的

现在应用技术领域比较火的无人驾驶汽车是 autonomous car

take charge  掌管，负责；主持；控制

interaction/,ɪntə'rækʃən/ n. 相互影响，相互作用

pilot/'paɪlət/  n. 飞行员；领航员  vt. 驾驶 (飞机); 为 (船只) 领航

unpredictable  /,ʌnprɪ'dɪktəbl/  adj. 不可预测的

experimental/ɛk'spɛrɪ'mɛntəl/  adj. 实验的；试验性的

fought a losing battle  打了一场必败之仗

fight a battle  作战；开展斗争

例句：Therefore, we should hold together and fight a battle against AIDS.

所以，我们应该团结一致，共同于艾滋病作斗争。

anti-stalling  防失速 stalling是航空学上的一个术语，意思是“失速，停转”。

Part 2

The industry’s technical complexity is amplified by its organisational complexity. In the 1990s a few Western airlines dominated and a handful of regulators had global clout. Now there are hundreds of airlines and 290,000 pilots worldwide. In 2018, for the first time, less than half of the global fleet was based in the West.

中译：飞机业的组织复杂性增强了技术复杂性。上世纪90年代，少数西方航空公司占据主导地位，少数监管机构拥有全球影响力。现在全球有数百家航空公司和29万名飞行员。2018年，全球航空公司中只有不到一半位于西方，这还是第一次。

amplify /'æmplɪfaɪ/  vt. 放大，扩大；增强；详述

dominate /'dɑmɪnet/  vt. 控制；支配；占优势；在…中占主要地位  vi. 占优势；处于支配地位

a handful of 少量的；一小部分

clout  /klaʊt/  n. 影响力

fleet 原指“舰队，船队”，这里用来很形象地指代航空公司。

be based in 位于；设在；总部设在；以……为基地

Part 3

Maintaining common standards on training and procedures is harder. China and other countries want a bigger say. The credibility of American regulators hasslipped because they have let domestic competition decline. This suggests they arecosy with industry.

中译：维持培训和程序方面的共同标准更加困难。中国和其他国家希望有更大的发言权。美国监管机构的信誉已经下滑，因为他们放任国内竞争下降。这表明他们与行业的关系密切。

maintain /men'ten/  vt. 维持；继续；维修；供养

credibility /,krɛdə'bɪləti/  n. 可信性

slip /slɪp/  vt. 滑; 滑倒

decline/dɪˈklaɪn/  n. 下降；衰退；斜面  vt. 谢绝；婉拒  vi. 下降；衰落；谢绝

cosy 常见含义是“舒适的；惬意的”，这里用的是它的一个不常见的含义“friendly and private 亲密无间的；密切的”，文中是说美国监管机构与飞机产业的巨头之间关系密切，放松了监管。

Part 4

Then comes geopolitics. With their hubs in Seattle and Toulouse, Boeing and Airbus are among the West’s largest exporters and a rare example of an industry in which China cannot compete. It would be depressing, but not impossible, if safety decisions were influenced by trade tensions.

中译：然后是地缘政治。波音(Boeing)和空客(Airbus)的中心位于西雅图和图卢兹(Toulouse)，是西方最大的出口商之一，也是中国无法与之竞争的一个罕见行业。如果安全决策受到贸易紧张局势的影响，这将令人沮丧，但并非不可能。

geopolitics /,dʒɪːəʊ'pɒlɪtɪks/  地缘政治学

hub /hʌb/ the central and most important part of an area, system, activity etc, which all the other parts are connected to〔地域、系统、活动等的〕中心，枢纽

exporter/ɛk'spɔrtɚ/  n. 出口商

depressing /dɪ'prɛsɪŋ/  adj. 压抑的；使人沮丧的

Part 5

Overtime, China and India may insist that the duopoly make more aircraft within their borders, to capture more jobs and intellectual property. That could require arestructuring of how both firms manufacture. Rows over aircraft emissions will further complicate the debate.

中译：随着时间的推移，中国和印度可能会坚持要求这两家双头垄断企业在各自境内制造更多的飞机，以获取更多的就业机会和知识产权。这可能需要对两家公司的生产方式进行重组。有关飞机排放的争吵将使这场辩论进一步复杂化。

capture /'kæptʃɚ/  vt. 俘获；夺得；捕捉，拍摄，录制  n. 捕获；战利品，俘虏

intellectual property  知识产权

restructuring /ri'strʌktʃərɪŋ/  n. 调整；改组；重建

manufacture /'mænjə'fæktʃɚ/   vi. 制造

emission /ɪ'mɪʃən/  n. 排放

complicate/'kɑmplɪket/  vt. 使复杂化

Part 6

Neither Boeing nor Airbus is about to go bust. Any flaw in the MAX 8 will probably be resolved, as battery problems in the 787 Dreamliner were in 2013. Boeing has $12.7bn of cash and bank lines to cushion it from the reputational crisis.

中译：波音和空客都不会破产。MAX 8的任何缺陷都可能得到解决，就像2013年787梦幻客机的电池问题一样。波音拥有127亿美元现金和银行贷款，以缓解它的声誉危机。

go bust  破产  bust /bʌst/  n. 破产

cushion /'kʊʃən/  n. 坐垫   vt. 缓冲；缓解

reputational crisis 声誉危机

Part 7

Both firms are ultimately backed by governments. In any case, demand for planes will grow. But ahead lie environmental and technological uncertainty, organisational complexity and geopolitical tension. The years of bumper marginsmay be over.

中译：这两家公司最终都得到了政府的支持。无论如何，对飞机的需求将会增长。但未来将面临环境和技术不确定性、组织的复杂性和地缘政治上的紧张局势。多年来利润丰厚的时代可能已经结束。

ultimately /'ʌltəmɪtlɪ/  adv. 最后；根本；基本上

in any case  无论如何

uncertainty /ʌn'sɝtnti/  n. 不确定

bumper margin丰厚利润

bumper /'bʌmpɚ/  adj. 丰收的

margin  /'mɑrdʒən/  n. 边缘；利润，余裕；页边的空白