德国的人口问题（之二）

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Berlin used to pay little attention to the area. But regional decline has already had a political effect. In a state election in March 2016, a populist party, the AfD, came first in Bitterfeld and second in Wolfen. Such places will matter in a federal election in September, which is expected to be tight. Bitterfeld-Wolfen has seen its population plummet from 75,000 in 1989 to 40,500 today. Even after administrators tore down blocks of flats, and cut floors off others, skeletal remains of buildings still await the wrecking ball. Nearly one building in five is empty. A grand Stalinist-era construction, once the town’s cultural palace, now stands deserted. Two-thirds of kindergartens and over half the schools have closed since 1990. The number of pupils finishing secondary school has fallen by half. Employers struggle to fill vacancies.

柏林过去很少关注这一地区。然而区域性的衰落已经产生了政治影响。2016年3月举行的一次州选举中，民粹主义政党AfD在比特菲尔德得票第一，在沃尔芬得票比第二。预计9月的联邦选举会很胶着，而这些地方非常关键。从1989年到今天，比特菲尔德-沃尔芬的人口已从7.5万降至4.05万。即使管理部门已经拆除了一些公寓楼及其他建筑，仍有残垣断壁等着落锤。近20%的建筑物空置。一栋宏伟的斯大林时代的建筑曾是这座小城的文化宫，如今已被废弃。自1990年以来，三分之二的幼儿园和近半数的学校已经关闭。完成初中学业的学生人数下降了一般。雇主苦苦寻觅能填补岗位空缺的人。

Apprentices—especially in service industries—are hard to find. The one booming industry, care, is desperate for more geriatricians, nurses and trainees. To help fill the gap, the local Euro-Schulen, a training institute, has turned to Vietnam. Having studied German in Hanoi, 16 young apprentices started in April, with 20 more expected soon. Nearby Dessau is setting up a similar arrangement with China.

实习生很难招，特别是服务行业的。蓬勃发展护理业迫切需要更多的老年病医生、护士和见习生。为了帮助填补这一缺口，当地一家培训机构“欧洲学校”将目光投向了越南。4月开始，16名在河内学习过的德语的年轻学徒上岗。很快还会再有20名。附近的城市德绍也正同中国订立类似的合作协议。

Germany has long relied on migrants to make up for low fertility rates. Unusually high migration in recent years has more than offset the shrinkage of the native-born population. But the EU countries that have traditionally provided the migrants, such as Poland, are also ageing. Migrant flows will slow; competition for labour will increase. And Olga Pötzsch, from the Federal Statistical Office, argues that Germany will need far more migrants to stop population decline, which is predicted to accelerate from 2020.

德国一直靠移民来弥补生育率低下。近年这样大批涌入的移民在抵消本土出生人口缩水，还略有富裕，但过去一直提供移民的欧盟国家，如波兰，本身也在老龄化。移民流动将放缓，争夺劳动力的竞争会加剧。德国联邦统计局的奥尔加·波茨什表示，德国人口预计会在2020年后加速减少，要想遏制人口下跌，所需移民数量要远超现在的数字。

Uwe Schulze, a senior local official, says that refugees are not filling the labour shortage. Of the 2,600-odd asylum-seekers who arrived in the area in 2015 and 2016, fewer than a third are now registered as “capable of working” and only 40 are fully employed. From his wood-panelled office in a neoclassical building that once housed one of Europe’s largest colour-film makers, Armin Schenk, Bitterfeld-Wolfen’s mayor, says the problems are mostly to do with language, qualifications and uncertainty about asylum. Asked whether Afghans and Syrians could join the same programme as the Vietnamese, Liane Michaelis, from Euro-Schulen, forcefully shakes her head, citing educational, religious and ethical barriers for care jobs. She adds that “those who do have the right papers leave quickly”. According to the OECD, about half of asylum-seekers who started off in eastern Germany in the past moved to places such as Hamburg once they secured their permit.

当地一位高级官员乌维·舒尔茨说难民并没有填补劳动力短缺。2015至2016年间抵达本地区的2600多名寻求庇护的难民中，只有不到三分之一的人登记为“有工作能力”，只有40个人找到了全职工作。在那栋曾经是欧洲最大的彩色胶卷生产企业的总部的建筑里，有一间木板墙面的办公室，比特菲尔德-沃尔芬市的市长阿尔明·申克表示问题大多出在语言障碍，资质欠缺以及不确定难民是否能得到庇护。当问到阿富汗人、叙利亚人是否能参加越南人一样的项目时，欧洲学校的利亚妮·密歇爱丽丝用力地摇了摇头，她指出教育、宗教、道德方面的隔阂令他们难以从事护理工作。她补充道，“那些确实有许可的人又都会很快离开”。经合组织表示，之前，先在德国东部落脚的避难者一旦拿到拘留许可，便会搬到汉堡等地。