译者按：任何一个行业的变革都会受到既有势力的阻碍。读完本文，你将了解到清洁能源为何不能立刻取代旧能源的三个原因，以及可能的解决方案——政府的介入和调节。
本文译自《经济学人》2月25日刊。

经济学人封面

Clean energy’s dirty secret

The renewables revolution is wrecking the world’s electricity markets. Here’s what to do

1. ALMOST 150 years after photovoltaic cells and wind turbines were invented, they still generate only 7% of the world’s electricity. Yet something remarkable is happening. From being peripheral to the energy system just over a decade ago, they are now growing faster than any other energy source and their falling costs are making them competitive with fossil fuels. BP, an oil firm, expects renewables to account for half of the growth in global energy supply over the next 20 years. It is no longer far-fetched to think that the world is entering an era of clean, unlimited and cheap power. About time, too.

being peripheral to: not as important as other things or people in a particular activity, idea, or situation
e.g. The romance is peripheral to the main plot of the movie.
competitive: as good as or better than others
far-fetched: extremely unlikely to be true or to happen
e.g. The whole story sounds very far-fetched.

1）光伏电池和风涡轮机发明几乎150年后，他们仍然只产生世界7％的电力。然而，一些值得注意的事情正在发生。十几年前还处于能源系统的外围，它们现在的增长速度超过任何其他能源，它们下降的成本使其和化石燃料一样有竞争力。 BP，一家石油公司，预计可再生能源将占未来20年全球能源供应增长的一半。世界正在进入一个清洁，无限和廉价电力的时代不再是难以置信的。也是时间问题。

2. There is a 20trn dollars hitch, though. To get from here to there requires huge amounts of investment over the next few decades, to replace old smog-belching power plants and to upgrade the pylons and wires that bring electricity to consumers. Normally investors like putting their money into electricity because it offers reliable returns. Yet green energy has a dirty secret. The more it is deployed, the more it lowers the price of power from any source. That makes it hard to manage the transition to a carbon-free future, during which many generating technologies, clean and dirty, need to remain profitable if the lights are to stay on. Unless the market is fixed, subsidies to the industry will only grow.

hitch: a small problem that makes something difficult or delays it for a short time
e.g. In spite of some technical hitches, the first program was a success.
e.g. The whole show went without a hitch .

2）然而，有一个20万亿美元的小问题。从现在到未来需要在未来几十年大量的投资，以取代旧的喷出烟雾的发电厂和升级给消费者带来电的电缆塔和电线。通常投资者喜欢把钱投入电力，因为它提供可靠的回报。然而，绿色能源有一个肮脏的秘密。它部署得越多，它就会让来自任何来源的电力价格降低越多。这使得通向无碳的未来的过渡难以控制，在这期间，如果要让灯继续发亮的话，许多发电技术，无论清洁还是肮脏，需要保持盈利。除非市场是固定的，否则对行业的补贴只会增长。

3. Policymakers are already seeing this inconvenient truth as a reason to put the brakes on renewable energy. In parts of Europe and China, investment in renewables is slowing as subsidies are cut back. However, the solution is not less wind and solar. It is to rethink how the world prices clean energy in order to make better use of it.

An inconvenient truth是一部有关气候变化和全球变暖的纪录片，维基上译作《难以忽视的真相》——译者注
put the brakes on sth: to stop something that is happening
cut back: If you cut back something such as expenditure or cut back on it, you reduce it.
e.g. The Government has cut back on defence spending.

3）政策制定者已经把这个尴尬的真相看作停止可再生能源的一个原因。在欧洲和中国的部分地区，可再生能源的投资正在放缓，因为补贴被削减。然而，解决方案不是更少的风和太阳能。而是重新思考世界如何为清洁能源定价，以便更好地利用它。

Shock to the system

4. At its heart, the problem is that government-supported renewable energy has been imposed on a market designed in a different era. For much of the 20th century, electricity was made and moved by vertically integrated, state-controlled monopolies. From the 1980s onwards, many of these were broken up, privatised and liberalised, so that market forces could determine where best to invest. Today only about 6% of electricity users get their power from monopolies. Yet everywhere the pressure to decarbonise power supply has brought the state creeping back into markets. This is disruptive for three reasons. The first is the subsidy system itself. The other two are inherent to the nature of wind and solar: their intermittency and their very low running costs. All three help explain why power prices are low and public subsidies are addictive.
   4）其核心问题是，政府支持的可再生能源已经被强加到一个不同时代设计出的市场。在20世纪的大部分时候，电力是由垂直整合的、国有控股的垄断企业制造和运输的。从20世纪80年代开始，其中许多垄断被打破，被私有化和自由化，使市场力量可以决定最佳投资方向。今天只有约6％的电力用户从垄断企业获得他们的电力。然而，到处去碳电力供应的压力已经使得国家悄悄潜回市场。这是破坏性的，有三个原因。第一是补贴制度本身。其他两个是风和太阳的性质固有的：它们的间歇性和它们非常低的运行成本。这三个原因帮助解释了为什么电力价格低和公共补贴停不下来。

5. First, the splurge of public subsidy, of about 800bn dollars since 2008, has distorted the market. It came about for noble reasons—to counter climate change and prime the pump for new, costly technologies, including wind turbines and solar panels. But subsidies hit just as electricity consumption in the rich world was stagnating because of growing energy efficiency and the financial crisis. The result was a glut of power-generating capacity that has slashed the revenues utilities earn from wholesale power markets and hence deterred investment.

prime the pump: to encourage a business, industry, or activity to develop by putting money or effort into it
slash: to greatly reduce an amount, price etc = cut
e.g. The workforce has been slashed by 50%.

5）首先，公共补贴的“挥霍”，自2008年以来约为8000亿美元，扭曲了市场。它是出于崇高的理由——为了对抗气候变化和鼓励发展新的、昂贵的技术，包括风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板。但是，由于能源效率的不断提高和金融危机的影响，富裕国家的电力消耗停滞不前，补贴就在此时出现。结果导致过量的发电能力，大幅减少了电力服务公司从大规模电力市场获得的收入，从而阻止了投资。

6. Second, green power is intermittent. The vagaries of wind and sun—especially in countries without favourable weather—mean that turbines and solar panels generate electricity only part of the time. To keep power flowing, the system relies on conventional power plants, such as coal, gas or nuclear, to kick in when renewables falter. But because they are idle for long periods, they find it harder to attract private investors. So, to keep the lights on, they require public funds.

kick in: If something kicks in, it begins to take effect.
e.g. As discounts kicked in, bookings for immediate travel rose by 15%.
falter: to become weaker and unable to continue in an effective way
e.g. The economy is showing signs of faltering.
idle: not working or producing anything ≠ busy
e.g. The workers have been idle for the last six months.

6）其次，绿色电源断断续续。风和太阳的变化莫测—— 特别是在没有合适天气的国家——意味着涡轮机和太阳能电池板仅在部分时间发电。为了保持电力流动，系统依靠常规的发电厂，例如煤、天然气或核能，在可再生能源减弱时起到作用。但是因为他们长期处于空闲状态，他们发现很难吸引私人投资者。所以，为了保持灯亮着，他们需要公共资金。

7. Everyone is affected by a third factor: renewable energy has negligible or zero marginal running costs—because the wind and the sun are free. In a market that prefers energy produced at the lowest short-term cost, wind and solar take business from providers that are more expensive to run, such as coal plants, depressing power prices, and hence revenues for all.
   7）每个人都受到第三个因素的影响：可再生能源具有可忽略的或者是零边际运营成本——因为风和太阳是免费的。在一个倾向于以最低短期成本生产能源的市场中，风能和太阳能从运行成本更高的提供商（如燃煤电厂）那里拿走生意，降低电价，从而降低了所有人的收入。

Get smart

8. The higher the penetration of renewables, the worse these problems get—especially in saturated markets. In Europe, which was first to feel the effects, utilities have suffered a “lost decade” of falling returns, stranded assets and corporate disruption. Last year, Germany’s two biggest electricity providers, E.ON and RWE, both split in two. In renewable-rich parts of America power providers struggle to find investors for new plants. Places with an abundance of wind, such as China, are curtailing wind farms to keep coal plants in business.

8）可再生能源的渗透率越高，这些问题越严重——特别是在饱和市场。在首先感受到影响的欧洲，电力服务公司遭受了收益下降、资产搁浅和企业瓦解的“失去的十年”。去年，德国两大电力供应商E.ON和RWE两家都分拆成两家。在美国可再生能源丰富的地区，电力供应商很难找到新工厂的投资者。拥有大量风力的地方，比如中国，正在削减风力发电厂，以让燃煤电厂有生意可做。

9. The corollary is that the electricity system is being re-regulated as investment goes chiefly to areas that benefit from public support. Paradoxically, that means the more states support renewables, the more they pay for conventional power plants, too, using “capacity payments” to alleviate intermittency. In effect, politicians rather than markets are once again deciding how to avoid blackouts. They often make mistakes: Germany’s support for cheap, dirty lignite caused emissions to rise, notwithstanding huge subsidies for renewables. Without a new approach the renewables revolution will stall.

9）推论是，电力系统正在被重新调整，因为投资主要去往受益于公共支持的领域。矛盾的是，这意味着支持可再生能源的国家越多，他们为常规发电厂支付的也越多，来使用“容量支付”来缓解间歇性。实际上，政治家而不是市场再次决定如何避免停电。他们经常犯错误：德国对便宜、脏的褐煤的支持引起排放量上升，尽管其对可再生能源提供巨额补贴。没有一种新的方法，可再生能源革命将熄火。

10. The good news is that new technology can help fix the problem. Digitalisation, smart meters and batteries are enabling companies and households to smooth out their demand—by doing some energy-intensive work at night, for example. This helps to cope with intermittent supply. Small, modular power plants, which are easy to flex up or down, are becoming more popular, as are high-voltage grids that can move excess power around the network more efficiently.

smooth out: If you smooth out a problem or difficulty, you solve it, especially by talking to the people concerned.
e.g. It's O.K. I smoothed things out.

10）好消息是，新技术可以帮助解决这个问题。数字化，智能电表和电池使公司和家庭能够解决他们的需求——例如在夜间做一些能源密集型的工作。这有助于应对间歇性供应。小型、模块化的发电厂，容易灵活调节产能，变得越来越受欢迎，高压电网也可以更有效地在网络上传输多余的电力。

11. The bigger task is to redesign power markets to reflect the new need for flexible supply and demand. They should adjust prices more frequently, to reflect the fluctuations of the weather. At times of extreme scarcity, a high fixed price could kick in to prevent blackouts. Markets should reward those willing to use less electricity to balance the grid, just as they reward those who generate more of it. Bills could be structured to be higher or lower depending how strongly a customer wanted guaranteed power all the time—a bit like an insurance policy. In short, policymakers should be clear they have a problem and that the cause is not renewable energy, but the out-of-date system of electricity pricing. Then they should fix it.
    11）更大的任务是重新设计电力市场，以反映对灵活供需的新需求。他们应该更频繁地调整价格，以反映天气的波动。在极端稀缺的时候，高固定价格可以起作用来阻止停电。市场应该奖励愿意使用更少的电力的人来平衡电网，正如他们奖励那些产生更多电力的人。账单可以被结构化为更高或更低，这取决于客户多么强烈地期望一直保证电力供应——有点像保险单。总之，政策制定者应该清楚，他们有问题，原因不是可再生能源，而是过时的电价制度。然后他们应该解决它。

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原文出处：经济学人杂志

译者：七呵夫

本译文仅供个人研习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。本译文所涉法律后果均由本人承担。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。