周小冬：人类要么倒退，要么灭亡！
【 周小冬 ZHOU XIAODONG】
工人，社会人、音乐人、多行业职业经理人、商人、电影人的多重人生历练，使思想更成熟，理解更深刻，尤其在当下作为一位先锋电影制片人，对中国电影的发展有着独立的思考及前瞻的预判！
Zhou xiaodong, a worker, a social person, a musician, a multi-industry professional manager, a businessman, and a filmmaker, has experienced multiple life experiences, which has made his thoughts more mature and his understanding more profound. Especially at present, as a pioneer film producer, zhou xiaodong has independent thinking and forward-looking prediction on the development of Chinese films！
人类要么倒退，要么灭亡！
（文：周小冬）
发轫于2019年底的新冠状肺炎疫情让中国基本停摆，最近全球又四面烽烟，但不管怎样很多人都在盼着，春天快来了，一切都不过是个插曲。是的，人类越来越文明的成果不会让这次瘟疫像欧洲中世纪的黑死病及近代的鼠疫那样等死，但这次的警报己拉响，人类的文明优化且递亡的信号己开始倒数！
从38亿年前的单细胞变成鱼爬上岸花了35亿年，从爬行到直立行走又花了2亿多年，又从光脚到穿鞋花了2百多万年，穿鞋走到坐马车走又花了8000年，到飞着走又干了2000多年，近200年发展更是日新月异，马上就可长生不老，上天入地了！
现代的种种文明成果大部分都是以希腊理性文明为基因的西方文明带来的。希腊因为它土地贫瘠需要工商业交换粮食，且环地中海的开放视野造就了他冒险、征服自然的理性文明基因，进而影响整个欧州追求科学、改造自然的狂热，并通过三次科技革命实现了5000年人类设想的神仙般的生活，现在又在向第四次科技革命进发，要永生享用这个世界。从1760开始的第一次科技革命的成果只享用了80年，就开始了近20年的经济停滞所引起的人类纷争；从1860年的第二次科技革命又享受了60年又直接导致了近30年的动荡，两次世界大战，一场世界性的大肃条；接着从1960年开始的第三次科技革命又享受了40年，在2000年的亙联网泡沫破灭后就只能靠印钱来制造泡沫财富，用透支未来消费的方式以求能支撑到第四次科技革命的到来。这些年暗潮汹动，明的世界核战不敢打，但不太平是常态！且不说第四次科技革命到底让人类嗨到怎么样，就看上面我讲的从生命起源到现在的发展是不是在加时速的优化且递亡，不知道到第五次第六次人类会不会按天来享用新的进化成果，但不知地球还给不给人类时间。
从第一次科技革命到今天260年的时间，我们人类就把地球的平均温度抬高了近一度，要知道地球气温确实存在着波动，但也是几百万年才会发生一个波动周期，而且也是变冷形成冰河期。关健是如果人类再把地球温度抬高2度，那么存在于西伯利亚冻土下及北极浅海下的可燃冰，叫固态甲烷，就会从固态释放为气态进入大气层，而甲烷的温室效应是二氧化碳的20到25倍，到那时气候就不可逆了。按现在文明的发展速度，30年之内就会触发这一结果。此外，60%的土壤及90%的淡水被污染，因为一种新的科技成果优化另一种成果只会带来更大的灾害，如现在新能源汽车取代汽油动力车，但不知一个一节1号电池能使1平方米的土地失去利用价值且污染期长达30年，而且可以污染一平公里的地下水。还有核电站，潜在的破坏不敢想像。同时，每年的物种也都在以5万左右的速度在消亡等等。一百年太长，只争朝夕！人类的趋利避害及短视天性有时会选择性麻木！
英国著名历史学家汤因比说过，人类的希望在东方！他潜心研究并思考了人类整个文明进化的种种，认为只有东方“天人合一”“道法自然”的世界观才能中和西方文明改造、征服自然的过激性，让人类能相对从容的顺从地球物种消亡的规律。东西方两种文明像中国的太极图一样，对立又互补且递次优化融合。由于自然地理地貌及物候条件的不同，中国封闭的农业文明及西方开放的工商业文明从基因上就完美的塑造了完美的感性与理性文明，好比两个小孩，一个感觉好，上手快，考虑每个人的情绪，自然刚开始实惠多多；而另一个，认死理，闷头闷脑，只认规则和规律，只认结果，上手慢，所以不讨人喜欢自然实惠少少。所以，这也不难理解中华文明为什么在200多年以前的人类文明历史一直占领先地位，不管是经济还是社会治理上，因为他是感觉好上手快的小孩。而从中世纪后，尤其西方的文艺复兴后，认死理的小孩终于琢磨出规律，举一反三，推动了人类科技革命的大发展且进步很快，但感觉好的小孩学的也快，而且还会灵活运用，自然落后一段后又赶超上来，所以两种文明必然互补且又递次优化的发展。
但从鸦片战争开始，中国感到落后挨打，从洋务运动的器物上“师夷长技以制夷“的进行西化，然后又从戊戌变法上进行制度上的西化，还是感觉不行，认为必须从文明的根上彻底西化，五四新文化运动吹响了号角！印度的文化泰斗泰戈尔1924年应邀来中国文化交流时，正值新文化运动高潮期，他前瞻性的视野早早就预见了西方文明的局限性、破坏性及短视性，认为东方文明的整体性及和谐性才会取精去糟，但遭到已狂热西化的国人们驱逐，不乏鲁迅，陈独秀，芧盾等主流文化大家。现在看来，这一百年来，中华文明暂时灵魂出窍了，国人信仰缺失且恶俗，但孰不知，拯救地球人类的责任就在我们文明身上！
是的，追求舒适美好的生活是人类的本能，何况由俭入奢易，由奢入俭难。让西方发达国家放弃美好生活的追逐确实不易，但不患寡而患不均也是人的弱点，让发展中国家不追逐也不行，况且西方文明导引出的资本主义本身就是一个靠资本不断驱动科技创造新增量财富不然就会经济危机进而动荡的这样一个单向的发展模式，就像嗜血的怪物，不喝血就会死，所以我们发展中国家就是甘愿做二等公民，享用他们淘汰的物质文明，如汽车、空调、冰箱等，也会不耽误上述设定的生态毁灭的进程，难道让发展中国家都过原始人生活。是的，有专家说过，人类要按此发展模式进行，人口必须消减到十亿人左右，英国人口学家马尔萨斯200年前就警示人口增长会引起不可调和的矛盾。那现在全球70亿人类怎么办，要么60亿人过茹毛饮血的原始生活，或天灾或人祸的毁灭掉，显然，这会带来更大的灾难和动荡。
所以中华文明该站起来了，重塑“道法自然”“天人合一”的传统文化精华，进而影响世界进行迂回和谐的新文明发展观，进行理性的倒退，应该是人类一大幸事！也许这次疫情就是一次契机！
电影焦点人物— THE SCAM OF THE MOVIE PROFITEER
Mankind will either go backward or perish!
The new coronavirus outbreak, which began in late 2019, has brought China to a virtual standstill, and the world has been on the brink of disaster recently. But anyway, many people are looking forward to it. Yes, the fruits of increasing human civilization will not make this plague as deadly as the black death in the middle ages of Europe and the plague in modern times, but this time the alarm has sounded, the signal of human civilization optimization and recurrence has begun to count down!
From 3.8 billion years ago in single cell into fish ashore on took 3.5 billion years, from crawling to walking upright and spent more than 200 million years, and from the bare feet to wear shoes to spend more than 200 in ten thousand, shoes go sit carriage and took 8000 years, to fly to walk again for 2000 years, nearly 200 years development is rapid, immediately can live forever, just!
Most of the achievements of modern civilization are brought by the western civilization with the rational civilization of Greece as the gene. Greece because it land to industrial and commercial exchange of food, and ring the Mediterranean open field of vision has produced his adventure, conquering nature genes, rational civilization, in turn, affects the entire Europe pursue scientific, the transformation nature, and through the revolution of science and technology to achieve the three times the human vision of paradise life in 5000, has now moved on to the fourth technological revolution, to enjoy the world eternal life. The first scientific revolution, beginning in 1760, took only 80 years to produce, and nearly two decades of economic stagnation began to stir up human strife. From the second scientific and technological revolution in 1860 to enjoy another 60 years and directly led to nearly 30 years of turmoil, two world wars, a worldwide great depression; The third technological revolution, which began in 1960, enjoyed another 40 years. After the dotcom bubble burst in 2000, it was all about printing money to create bubble wealth and overspending to sustain the fourth. In recent years, the dark tide has been raging, and the nuclear war in the Ming world dare not be fought, but it is not peaceful. Not to mention the fourth scientific and technological revolution in the end let human beings to how high, just see the above I said from the origin of life to the development of the present is not in the accelerating speed of optimization and evolution, I do not know to the fifth sixth human will enjoy the new evolutionary results day by day, but I do not know the earth to give human time.
In the 260 years between the first scientific revolution and today, we have raised the average temperature of the earth by nearly one degree. If humans raise the earth's temperature by another two degrees, the flammable ice under the Siberian tundra and the shallow arctic seas, called methane, will be released into the atmosphere as a gas. Methane is 20 to 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide, and the climate will be irreversible. At the current pace of civilization, this will happen within 30 years. In addition, 60% of soil and 90% of the fresh water is polluted, because a new scientific and technological achievements optimization results of another will only lead to greater disasters, such as new energy vehicles instead of gasoline cars now, but I don't know a section 1 battery can lose 1 square meters of land utilization value and pollution issue for 30 years, and the groundwater pollution in a flat km. And nuclear power plants, the potential for damage is unimaginable. At the same time, species are disappearing at a rate of about 50,000 per year and so on. A hundred years is too long, seize the day! The human nature of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages and short - term sometimes selective numbness!
The famous British historian Toynbee said that the hope of mankind lies in the east! He devoted himself to studying and thinking about the evolution of the entire human civilization, and believed that only the eastern world view of "harmony between man and nature" and "Taoism and nature" could neutralize the radical nature of the transformation and conquest of western civilization, and enable human beings to comply with the law of extinction of species on earth with relative ease. The two civilizations in the east and the west complement each other and merge in succession, just like China's diagram of taiji. Due to the differences in physical geography and phenological conditions, the closed agricultural civilization of China and the open industrial and commercial civilization of the west have genetically created a perfect perceptual and rational civilization. And the other, accept dead reason, futze head, only recognize the rule and the rule, only recognize the result, on the hand is slow, so don't like nature benefit less. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the Chinese civilization has been in the leading position in the history of human civilization more than 200 years ago, whether it is economic or social governance, because it is a child who feels good and has a quick hand. After the middle ages, especially in the west after the Renaissance, RenSiLi child finally figured out rule, the lines, to promote the development of human science and technology revolution and progress soon, but feeling good children learn faster, but also flexible use, natural after a backward and catching up, therefore two civilizations will complement each other and the development of sequence optimization.
But from the beginning of the opium war, China felt backward under attack, from the westernization of the westernization movement on the utensils of the westernization movement, "teacher yi long technique to control yi", and then from the reform movement of 1898 to carry out the westernization of the system, or feel no good, think must from the root of civilization thoroughly westernization, the may fourth new culture movement blew the horn! India's cultural circles of tagore was invited to China cultural exchange in 1924, during the height of the new culture movement, his early in the forward-looking vision foresaw the limitations of western civilization, destructive and short-sighted, thought that the whole of the eastern civilization and harmony will take to go bad, but have driven, fanatical westernized countries people by lu xun, Chen duxiu, Xu shield, such as the mainstream culture. Now it seems that in the past 100 years, the soul of the Chinese civilization temporarily out-of-body, people lack of faith and bad customs, but who do not know, the responsibility to save the earth on our civilization!
Yes, the pursuit of a comfortable and beautiful life is the instinct of human beings, not to mention the easy transition from frugality to extravagance, and the difficult transition from extravagance to frugality. That western developed countries to give up the pursuit of a better life is really not easy, but not of oligonucleotides and suffer from inequality are human weaknesses, not let developing countries don't chase, and bring out western civilization of capitalism itself is a capital continuously drive technology to create new incremental wealth or will the economic crisis and turmoil in the development of such a one-way pattern, like a bloodthirsty monsters, don't drink blood will die, so we is willing to do second-class citizens in developing countries, to enjoy their obsolete material civilization, such as cars, air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., also will not delay the setting of the process of ecological destruction, Let the developing countries live as primitive people. Yes, some experts have said that in order for the human race to develop in this way, the population must be reduced to about one billion people. The British demographer Thomas malthus warned 200 years ago that population growth would cause irreconcilable contradictions. Now what about 7 billion people on the planet, or 6 billion people living a primitive life, or the destruction of natural or man-made disasters, which will obviously lead to greater disaster and instability.
Therefore, it is time for the Chinese civilization to stand up, reshape the traditional cultural essence of "dao, fa, nature" and "the unity of nature and man", and then influence the world to carry on the new civilization development concept of circuitous harmony, and carry on the rational retrogression, which should be a great blessing for mankind! Maybe this outbreak is an opportunity!
