IF THE PEARL HARBOR ATTACK NEVER

(by Jayden Li)

The Pearl Harbor attack was pretty much the single trigger for the US to join the Second World War. Soon after the bombing raid, the US declared war on Japan, followed by the UK, and finally Germany declaring war on the US.

The US never wanted to participate in the war. This was the same for both world wars. In the First World War President Woodrow Wilson attempted all ways to prevent the US to go into the war, but eventually had to declare war when German submarines sank the RMS Lusitania. In 1940 Presidential Election Franklin D. Roosevelt stated that he wouldn’t want any young American men dying in Asia or Europe, but when he was elected, he started shipping supplies to China and the UK, and declared war on the Axis Powers after Pearl Harbor Attack.

BUT what if the Japanese DID NOT ATTACK PEARL HARBOR?

It would be obvious that USA would not declare war on Japan, and Germany wouldn’t declare war on the USA. The UK wouldn’t declare war on Japan (For now).

However, the Oil Embargo would  continue and Japan would invade Burma, French Indochina and Dutch East Indies for natural resources. Later they would invade the British colony, India. That would force the UK to declare war on Japan.

Firstly, the Burma Campaign would STILL BE A SUCCESS FOR THE ALLIES. The Japanese would lose Burma. This campaign was mainly for defense of India, as well as to prevent Japan from capturing the oil fields and rubber plantations in Burma (Modern day Myanmar).

Overview of Burma Campaign

Secondly, shortly before December 7th 1941 (Day of Pearl Harbor attack), during the summer of 1941, Nazi Germany broke the Non-Aggressive Pact with the Soviets when Operation Barbarossa was launched. Right after that, the Soviet Union declared war on Nazi Germany. (Overview of Operation Barbarossa below)

Overview of Operation Barbarossa

The Luftwaffe (German Air Force) was already weakened with the defeat of the Battle of Britain, with 1977 German aircrafts destroyed by the RAF. This showed that the Luftwaffe’s aerial dominance was coming to an end. That’s why Germany suffered even heavier losses in the invasion of the Soviet Union.

In terms of personnel, artillery and equipment, Operation Barbarossa was the largest military operation in human history. This was the reason why the Soviet Union declared war on Germany, and later, its old enemy, The Japanese Empire.

In summary, even if Japan didn’t attack Pearl Harbor and the US didn’t join the war, it would still lose the Burma campaign. Germany would still lose the war against the Soviet Union.

It is also worth mentioning that one of the most important factors for all major battles and campaigns was OIL. To protect the rich amount of oil inside the industrial city of Stalingrad, the Soviets defended the city so fiercely. The hunger for oil would make Japan to invade Siberia to seize the oil fields. If that happened, the Soviets will try their best to defeat Japan.

In conclusion, the Second World War would STILL BE WON BY THE ALLIES. The victory of the Allies would only be delayed for 2 or 3 years. The forces of the Soviet Union were strong enough to penetrate into the German defenses. On the Far East front the Soviet Union would still defeat the Japanese Empire with a full sized invasion.