On the rise 全球经济大复苏

英文部分来自“经济学人”杂志。译文是个人学习、欣赏语言之用，谢绝转载或用于任何商业用途。本人同意简书平台在接获有关著作权人的通知后，删除文章。

A synchronised global upturn is underway. Thank stimulus, not the populists

全球经济正在同步复苏。这要感谢刺激政策，而不是民粹主义者。

Economic and political cycles have a habit of being out of sync. Just ask George Bush senior,who lost the presidential election in 1992 because voters blamed him for the recent recession.Or Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, booted out by German voters in 2005 after imposing painful reforms, only to see Angela Merkel reap the rewards.

经济和政治周期不同步是惯例。看看老布什（George Bush senior），他在1992年的总统大选中败北，因为选民把最近的经济衰退归咎于他。类似的，由于推行痛苦的改革，总理格哈德•施罗德在2005年大选中被德国选民一脚踢开，只能眼睁睁看着安格拉•默克尔下山摘桃子。

Today, almost ten years after the most severe financial crisis since the Depression, a broad-based economic upswing is at last under way. In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, all the burners are firing at once.

现在，1929年大萧条以来，最严重的金融危机爆发近十年之后，基础广泛的经济上升终于开始了。美国，欧洲，亚洲以及新兴市场国家，所有引擎同时启动。自2010年经济短暂反弹以来，这还是第一次。

But the political mood is sour. A populist rebellion, nurtured by years of sluggish growth, is still spreading. Globalisation is out of favour. An economic nationalist sits in the White House. This week all eyes were on Dutch elections featuring Geert Wilders, a Dutch Islamophobic ideologue , just one of many European malcontents.

但政治气氛乏善可陈。多年来停滞的经济养大了民粹主义反对派并继续滋生蔓延。全球化不受欢迎。一位经济民族主义者入主了白宫。本周，所有人都在关注荷兰选举，焦点是荷兰的一位仇视伊斯兰的思想家吉尔特·威尔德斯（Geert Wilders）。他只是欧洲许多不满者的一个代表。

This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians win credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence,with potentially devastating effects. As a long-awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence, the big question is: what lies behind it?

这种不协调是危险的。如果民粹主义政治家因为更加繁荣的经济赢得了信任，他们的政策就将获得信用凭证。这具有潜在的破坏性后果。当期待已久的经济上升提振了精神，传递了信心时，最大的问题是：其背后的原因是什么？

All together now

现在都在一起了

The past decade has been marked by false dawns, in which optimism at the start of a year has been undone—whether by the euro crisis, wobbles in emerging markets, the collapse of the oil price or fears of a meltdown in China. America’s economy has kept growing, but always into a headwind (see page 69). A year ago, the Federal Reserve had expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Global frailties put paid to that.

黎明曙光的假象是过去十年的标志，年初的乐观主义总是归于沉寂。无论是由于欧元危机，新兴市场波动，石油价格崩溃，还是担心中国的崩溃。美国的经济一直保持增长，但总是逆风而行。一年前，美联储曾预计2016年加息4次。全球疲软却使之烟消云散。

Now things are different. This week the Fed raised rates for the second time in three months—thanks partly to the vigour of the American economy, but also because of growth everywhere else. Fears about Chinese overcapacity, and of a yuan devaluation, have receded. In February factory-gate inflation was close to a nine-year high. In Japan in the fourth quarter capital expenditure grew at its fastest rate in three years. The euro area has been gathering speed since 2015. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index is at its highest since 2011; euro-zone unemployment is at its lowest since 2009.

现在情势有所不同。本周美联储三个月内第二次提高了利率 - 部分是由于美国经济的活力，也是因为全球各地的增长。对于中国产能过剩，人民币贬值的担忧已经消退。 2月份，出厂价格上涨接近九年来的高点。日本第四季度的资本支出以三年来最快的速度增长。2015年以来欧元区一直在加速。欧洲委员会的经济信心指数处于2011年以来的最高点; 欧元区失业率达到2009年以来的最低水平。

The bellwethers of global activity look sprightly, too. In February South Korea, a proxy for world trade, notched up export growth above 20%. Taiwanese manufacturers have posted 12 consecutive months of expansion. Even in places inured to recession the worst is over. The Brazilian economy has been shrinking for eight quarters but, with inflation expectations tamed, interest rates are now falling. Brazil and Russia are likely to add to global GDP this year, not subtract from it. The Institute of International Finance reckons that in January the developing world hit its fastest monthly rate of growth since 2011.

全球活动的领头羊们也步履轻盈。二月份，韩国作为世界贸易的代表，出口激增超过20％。台湾制造商已连续12个月扩张。甚至那些已经习惯了经济衰退的国家，最坏的时候也已经过去。巴西经济已经收缩了八个季度，但随着通胀预期归于平静，利率现在开始下降。和以往不同，巴西和俄罗斯今年将为全球GDP增长锦上添花。国际金融研究所估计1月份，发展中国家创下了2011年以来最快的月度增长率。

This is not to say the world economy is back to normal. Oil prices fell by10% in the week to March 15th on renewed fears of oversupply; a sustained fall would hurt the economies of producers more than it would benefit consumers. China’s build-up of debt is of enduring concern. Productivity growth in the rich world remains weak. Outside America, wages are still growing slowly. And in America, surging business confidence has yet to translate into surging investment.

这并不是说世界经济已恢复正常。由于再次担心供给过剩，在3月15日的这一周，石油价格下跌了10％; 持续下降的油价，对生产者经济的伤害将超过消费者从中的受益。中国债务累积一直让人担心。富裕国家的生产力增长仍然疲软。美国之外，工资仍然增长缓慢。而美国，商业信心的增长还没有转化为投资的增长。

Entrenching the recovery calls for a delicate balancing-act.As inflation expectations rise, central banks will have to weigh the pressure to tighten policy against the risk that, if they go too fast, bond markets and borrowers will suffer. Europe is especially vulnerable, because the European Central Bankis reaching the legal limits of the bond-buying programme it has used to keep money cheap in weak economies.

巩固经济复苏需要微妙的平衡艺术。随着通胀预期的上升，在收紧政策的压力和由于步伐太快而造成债券市场和借款人受损的风险之间，央行将必须权衡利弊，有所取舍。欧洲特别脆弱，因为欧洲央行达到了债券购买计划的法律上限。该计划用来保持经济疲软时期低廉的货币获取成本。

The biggest risk, though, is the lessons politicians draw.Donald Trump is singing his own praises after good job and confidence numbers. It is true that the stock market and business sentiment have been fired up by promises of deregulation and a fiscal boost. But Mr Trump’s claims to have magically jump-started job creation are sheer braggadocio. The American economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row.

然而，最大的风险是政治家带来的教训。漂亮的工作和信心数据公布后唐纳德·特朗普在为自己大唱赞歌。诚然，股票市场和商业信心由于放松管制和财政扩张的承诺而爆发。但是，特朗普声称拥有魔力般的快速启动岗位创造能力是纯粹的自吹自擂。美国经济已经连续77个月增加了就业岗位。

No Keynes, no gains

没有凯恩斯就没有收获

Most important, the upswing has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism. If anything,the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists often decry. Economists have long argued that recoveries from financial crashes take a long time: research into 100 banking crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University suggests that, on average, incomes get back to precrisis levels only after eight long years. Most economists also argue that the best way to recover after a debt crisis is to cleanup balance sheets quickly, keep monetary policy loose and apply fiscal stimulus wherever prudently possible.

最重要的是，经济上升与特朗普的“美国第一”经济民族主义没有半毛钱关系。甚至可以说，全球的上升为那些经常被如今的民粹主义者强烈批评的专家们做了辩护。经济学家一直认为，金融危机的复苏需要很长时间：哈佛大学的Carmen Reinhart和Kenneth Rogoff对100次银行危机的深入研究表明，平均来说，要经过8年时间，收入才能恢复到危机前的水平。大多数经济学家还认为，在债务危机之后最佳恢复方式是迅速清理资产负债表，保持货币政策宽松，并谨慎地在任何可能的地方实施财政刺激政策。

Today’s recovery validates that prescription. The Fed pinned interest rates to the floor until full employment was insight. The ECB’s bond-buying programme has kept borrowing costs in crisis-prone countries tolerable, though Europe’s misplaced emphasis on austerity, recently relaxed, made the job harder. In Japan rises in VAT have scuppered previous recoveries;this time the government wisely deferred an increase until at least 2019.

今天的复苏证明处方有效。美联储把利率压到最低，直到充分就业深入。欧洲央行的债券购买计划使有危机风险国家的借款成本保持在可以承受的范围，尽管欧洲曾错误地强调紧缩，使这项工作变得更困难。紧缩最近也已放松。在日本，增值税的上升使以前的复苏夭折; 这次政府聪明地把增加计划推迟到至少2019年。

The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. An endorsement for populist economics would favour insurgent parties in countries like France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is standing for president. It would also favour the wrong policies. Mr Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the economy that now least needs support—and complicate the Fed’s task. Fortified by misplaced belief in their own world view, the administration’s protectionists might urge Mr Trump to rip up the infrastructure of globalisation(bypassing the World Trade Organisation in pursuing grievances against China, say), risking a trade war. A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar would widen America’s trade deficit, which may strengthen their hand. Populists deserve no credit for the upsurge. But they could yet snuff it out.

谁带来了复苏的争论不只是吹牛的比拼。对民粹主义经济学的支持将有利于法国等国家的反对党。法国极右翼的玛丽安勒庞正在竞选总统。它也会粉饰那些错误的政策。特朗普提出的减税计划将刺激现在最不需要帮助的经济，并使美联储的任务复杂化。由于他们世界观的错误信念被强化了，政府中的保护主义者可能会敦促特朗普毁掉全球化的基础（绕过世贸组织对中国进行申诉），这会冒着贸易战的风险。国内的财政挥霍和美元走强将扩大美国的贸易赤字，这可能增强他们的地位。全球经济高涨的荣誉不归功于民粹主义者。但他们能毁掉它。