Follow the trendlines

追寻历史发展趋势

Deep trends suggest more progress will come in the years ahead, predicts Steven Pinker, Johnstone family professor, Harvard University

本文作者史蒂文•平克(Steven Pinker)认为历史发展趋势预示着我们的世界未来会更加进步。

这里的in the years ahead和文末的in the coming year是一个意思，我们也经常讲in the near future/in the coming weekend

史蒂文•平克(Steven Pinker)—哈佛大学约翰斯顿家庭心理学教授，他在哈佛官网及Twitter上简介如下：

Harvard University Twitter

官网上的简介Faculty of Arts and Sciences是指哈佛文理学院，确切的讲他应该是认知心理学家(cognitive psychologist), 我们平常说自我和社会认知，分别就是self-cognition/social-cognition；另外关于Johnstone family professor通过网络检索了解是由特定人所资助的一个教职。检索结果如下：

Website

他今年的新书“Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism and Progress” (Viking, 2018) 暂译为《现代启蒙：理性，科学，人文主义及进步的论述》被The Economist评为2018年non-fiction的年度书。这里的Enlightenment是源自欧洲的启蒙运动，我们用英文特指这一时期需用the Enlightenment，书的大致内容 “It uses statistics to argue that health, prosperity, safety, peace, and happiness have tended to rise worldwide since the Enlightenment. It attributes these positive outcomes to the Enlightenment values of reason, science, and humanism. ”感兴趣的同学还可以看看The Economist及Bill Gates的书评。

The Economist:

https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2018/02/24/steven-pinkers-case-for-optimism

Bill Gates:

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Enlightenment-Now?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

总的来说，史蒂文•平克(Steven Pinker)是一位乐观主义者，我们人类在历史的发展中总会有许多的问题，也生活在一个不完美的世界，但我们可以用智识来不断使世界变得更美好！他在书的最后这样写道 “We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one. But there is no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing.”

更多关于Steven Pinker的信息可参见

Wikipedia:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Pinker?wprov=sfti1

TED:

https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_is_the_world_getting_better_or_worse_a_look_at_the_numbers

YouTube:

https://youtu.be/piUqV0xo8us

https://youtu.be/kKsjUew_Bpc

作者最后总结了虽然没有人能预知是否近几十年和近几世纪的进步将在未来以何种方式发展下去，但是我们要理解这个世界应追寻历史发展趋势，而不是新闻事件头条。因为Headlines充斥着各种各样的负面信息。我们更应关注世界积极的一面，正如他调侃的说很少看到这样的报道”100,000 AEROPLANES DIDN’T CRASH YESTERDAY”?

No one can predict whether the progress of recent decades and centuries will play out in the coming year. But to understand the world we should follow the trendlines, not the headlines.

这里的play out指to develop in a particular way；另外句首的no one can predict…是一个很实用的表达，如no one can predict the future/no one can predict what/whether/how/when等从句。另外这句“To understand the world we should follow the trendlines, not the headlines.” 我们多读几遍相信可以做到脱口而出。

最后，我想说无论你处在人生低谷还是逆境，请保持一颗乐观积极的心，因为世界总是在变好！

Follow the trendlines 文章出自The Economist —The World in 2019

The Economist