必读：经济学人翻译参考：人工智能的两面性（利与弊）

必读：经济学人翻译参考：人工智能的两面性（利与弊）

课程报名：8月MTI课程报名+8月复习建议+下半年重要考研时间节点提醒

Two-faced

两面性

The sunny and the dark side of AI

人工智能的光明面和黑暗面

MENTION ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, and most people will think of robots. But a more fitting image may be that of Janus, the Roman god of beginnings, transitions and endings, who has two faces looking in opposite directions. On one side are the positive changes that AI will bring, enabling people to achieve more, far more quickly, by using technology to enhance their existing skills. Recruiters will be able to pinpoint the best candidates more easily, and customer-service staff will be able to handle queries faster. Jobs that never existed before could be created. And getting machines to do routine work can make professional lives more fulfilling and stimulating.

提到人工智能，绝大多数人想到的是机器人。罗马神话中的杰那斯(Janus)可能最符合人工智能的形象，杰那斯是掌管开始、转变和结束的神，脑袋前后长着两张脸。人工智能将用技术提高人们现有的技能，让人们以更快的速度获得更多实惠，这是人工智能带来的积极变化。招聘人员能较容易地找到最适合的应聘者，客服人员能更快地处理咨询；人工智能能创造出以前没有的工作，让机器去做日常工作，让人们的职业生涯变得更充实、更具激情。

Consumers, too, will benefit from AI-enhanced services such as personalised recommendations and faster and more efficient delivery, as well as from radical changes in industries like health care and transport that could lead to new drug discoveries and treatments and safer ways to move around.

人工智能提高了服务质量，例如为消费者推荐个性化服务，商品运输变得更快并且效率更高，让某些行业发生根本性变化，包括医疗业和交通运输业，能让人研制出新型药品和治疗方法，能让运输变得更加安全，消费者也会因此受益。

Look the other way, though, and there are plenty of potential pitfalls. Technological change always causes disruption, but AI is likely to have a bigger impact than anything since the advent of computers, and its consequences could be far more disruptive. Being both powerful and relatively cheap, it will spread faster than computers did and touch every industry.

而在另一方面，人工智能有不少潜在缺陷。技术变革总会导致颠覆性变化，但电脑出现之后，人工智能造成的影响极有可能超过其他事项，它带来的后果可能更具颠覆性。人工智能功能强大但价格相对便宜，其传播速度将超过电脑，将涉及各个行业。

Sunny with a chance of thunderstorms

人工智能优点不少，但暗藏危机

In the years ahead, AI will raise three big questions for bosses and governments. One is the effect on jobs. Although chief executives publicly extol the broad benefits AI will bring, their main interest lies in cutting costs. One European bank asked Infosys to find a way of reducing the staff in its operations department from 50,000 to 500. This special report has shown that AI-enhanced tools can help pare staff in departments such as customer service and human resources. The McKinsey Global Institute reckons that by 2030 up to 375m people, or 14% of the global workforce, could have their jobs automated away. Bosses will need to decide whether they are prepared to offer and pay for retraining, and whether they will give time off for it. Many companies say they are all for workers developing new skills, but not at the employer’s expense.

在未来三年，人工智能将让企业家和政府面临三大问题。第一个问题就是对就业的影响。首席执行官公开称颂人工智能将带来大量收益，但人工智能带来的主要收益就是降低成本。一家欧洲银行要求印孚瑟斯公司（ Infosys）找到一种方法，将运营部门的职工人数从50000削减至500。这篇特别报道表明人工智能增强工具有助于减少像客服部门和人力资源部门的员工人数。麦肯锡全球研究院估计：到2030年，3.75亿人，即全球劳动力人数的14%，其工作岗位将被自动化技术所替代。企业家将决定是否为职工提供就业再培训并支付相关费用，或者是否为职工提供再就业培训时间。很多企业表示愿意培训职工，让其掌握新技能，但企业不去承担费用。

A second important question is how to protect privacy as AI spreads. The internet has already made it possible to track people’s digital behaviour in minute detail. AI will offer even better tools for businesses to monitor consumers and employees, both online and in the physical world. Consumers are sometimes happy to go along with this if it results in personalised service or tailored promotions. But AI is bound to bring privacy violations that are seen as outrageous. For example, facial-recognition technology has become so advanced that it may be able to detect someone’s sexual orientation. In the wrong hands, such technology could militate against fair and equal treatment. Countries with a record of surveillance and human-rights abuses, are already using AI to monitor political activity and suppress dissent. Law-enforcement officials around the world will use AI to spot criminals, but may also snoop on ordinary citizens. New rules will be needed to ensure consensus on what degree of monitoring is reasonable.

第二个问题就是在人工智能普及阶段，如何保护个人隐私。利用互联网，已经可以对人们操控数码设备的行为进行详细记录。人工智能能为企业提供更好的工具，在线上和线下对顾客和雇员进行监控。如果企业通过此行为为顾客提供个性化服务或定制促销活动，顾客有时会高兴地接受。但人工智能肯定会侵犯隐私，这让人难以接受。例如，人脸识别技术已经变得十分先进了，甚至可以用来检测一个人的性取向。如果此技术被别有用心的人利用，将不利于公平公正。在有滥用监控技术和侵犯人权的国家，已经利用人工智能来监视政治活动和压制异见。世界各国的执法官员将利用人工智能技术发现罪犯，但也可能利用其来窥探普通公民。需要制定新法律来界定监控的合理级别。

Janus, the Roman god, contained both beginnings and endings within him. That duality characterises AI, too

杰那斯是罗马神话中的神，掌管开始和结束。人工智能也有类似双重特性。

The third question is about the effect of AI on competition in business. Today many firms are competing to provide AI-enhanced tools to companies. But a technology company that achieves a major breakthrough in artificial intelligence could race ahead of rivals, put others out of business and lessen competition. This is unlikely to happen in the near future, but if it did it would be of great concern.

第三个问题是人工智能对商业竞争的影响。现在，很多软件公司竞相为企业提供人工智能增强工具。在人工智能领域取得突破的科技公司将行业竞争上甩开对手，甚至让对手出局，降低了市场竞争。此情况可能不会马上发生，如若发生，会引起人们极大的担忧。

More likely, in the years ahead AI might contribute to the rise of monopolies in industries outside the tech sector where there used to be dynamic markets, eventually stifling innovation and consumer choice. Big firms that adopt AI early on will get ever bigger, attracting more customers, saving costs and offering lower prices. Such firms may also reinvest any extra profits from this source, ensuring that they stay ahead of rivals. Smaller companies could find themselves left behind.

人工智能有可能在最近几年让充满活力的非科技行业市场出现垄断企业，最终扼杀创新，剥夺消费者的选择权。较早采用人工智能的大公司将变得更大，吸引更多顾客，节约成本，提供更廉价的商品。此类大公司还可能将此利润进行再投入，以保证自己在竞争中采用领先地位。规模较小的公司可能会处于落后地位。

Retailing is an illustration of how AI can help large firms win market share. Amazon, which uses AI extensively, controls around 40% of online commerce in America, helping it build moats that make it harder for rivals to compete. But AI will increase concentration in other industries, too. If, say, an oil company can use AI to pump 3% more efficiently, it can set prices 3% lower than those of a rival. That could force the competitor to shut down, says Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs. He thinks that AI has “the power to reshuffle the competitive stack”.

以零售业为例，说明大公司如何利用人工智能获取市场份额。亚马孙公司通过大规模采用人工智能，掌控了美国电子商务的40%份额，其还利用人工智能构建壁垒，让竞争对手更难与其竞争。人工智能也将加剧某些行业的竞争。例如，石油公司能够利用人工智能提高3%的出油率，其定价就能比竞争对手低3%。高盛投资公司（Goldman Sachs）的希斯·特里（Heath Terry）表示：此行为将迫使竞争对手关门。希斯认为人工智能“能够改变竞争格局。”

It is too early to tell whether the positive changes wrought by AI will outweigh the perils. But leading a company in the years ahead is sure to be more challenging than at any time in living memory. AI will require bosses to rethink how they structure departments, whether they should build strategic technologies internally or trust outside firms to deliver them, whether they can attract the technical talent they need, what they owe their employees and how they should balance their strategic interests with workers’ privacy. Just as the internet felled some bosses, those who do not invest in AI early to ensure they will keep their firm’s competitive edge will flounder.

人工智能导致的改变是否是利大于弊，现在断言还为时尚早。在未来数年里，领导一家企业的难度将超过任何历史时期。人工智能将让企业家重新思考：如何规划企业部门，是企业自身研发战略性技术还将其委托给外部公司研发，企业能否吸引所需的技术人才，企业需要向员工提供什么，企业如何平衡战略利益和保护员工隐私。互联网曾让一些企业家倒下，如果企业家不及时对人工智能进行投资以确保企业的竞争力，此类企业家也会被淘汰。

Janus, the Roman god, contained both beginnings and endings within him. That duality characterises AI, too. It will put an end to traditional ways of doing things and start a new era for business and for the world at large. It will be pervasive, devastating and exhilarating all at the same time. Look ahead.

杰那斯是罗马神话中的神，掌管开始和结束。人工智能也有类似双重特性。人工智能将终结传统商业模式，开创商业乃至整个世界的新纪元。人工智能将变得无处不在，极具技术颠覆性，同时也让人兴奋不已。让我们拭目以待吧。