让我来把"信息过载"聊得有意思 (认识自由#Vol_01)
你自以为是一个热爱自由的人吗？自由算是一种什么？它是一个多数人都消费不起的奢侈品，还是一个从来都无法消费的虚无产物？本期内容将会尝试在支离破碎的漫谈中对它进行粗糙的勾勒。希望接下来的内容能够帮助你重新认识自由，并推动你独立思考找到属于自己的答案。
Would you think of yourself as a freedom-loving individual? What sort of thing does freedom register as? Is it the luxury most people cannot afford, or a product of nihility that can never been consumed? This episode attempts to give a rough sketch of freedom via a series of scattered conversations. I hope you'll find it helpful for your rediscovery on freedom and hence encourage the search for your own answers.
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【C1. 信息过载的当下】 Information overloaded atmosphere
P1. 知道得更多 & 确信的更少 Having more but knowing less
相比一百年前，科技的创新与发展为我们的生活带来了数不清的质量提升，这个论断相信即便在一百年后的人们口中依然会滚动式成立，当然除非科幻小说的老套剧情骤然成真啦，有趣的是科幻小说从不吝啬描写我们（或其他智慧物种）自身的短板。在这个技术驱动下的“现代”社会里头，我们已经很难去争辩当下的生活没有被暴露在信息过载的环境中，我们可以消费的内容早已突破了我们的极限，就跟纸质书一样，多少辈子都读不完。除了信息的“通胀”之外，信息过载一方面解决了以往的信息不对称问题，但在另一方面也带来了新的信息不对称，这些不对称主要体现在信任危机、信息残缺，以及流言疯传等方面；其中信任危机包括来自品牌营销（不一定是商业层面）的价值渗透，关键信息残缺包括来自内容发布者的信息保护或认知缺失，流言疯传则包括来自发布者的刻板印象、商业炒作或者社会力量的舆论煽动等。
Technological innovation and development has brought us countless quality lives since the last century. And I'm sure this assertion will hold true for another round of century. Unless, of course, the good old sci-fi foretelling suddenly come true. The interesting thing about science fiction is that it never get old to stress the faultiness of mankind (or other intelligent species). Given the technology-driven society we live in, it's nearly impossible to argue we haven't already been exposed to information overload. The current amount of information is way beyond our capability to consume, in a sense, it's sort of like we don't have the right amount of lifetimes to read all the books on earth. In addition to the "inflation" of information, information overload, on one hand, solves the problem of information asymmetry from the past, whilst it also brings new information asymmetry to the table, which is mainly reflected in credit crisis, information fragmentation, and the spreading of rumors; among which, the credit crisis includes values penetration from brand marketing (not necessarily for commercial aims), and information fragmentation includes the needs for information protection or lack of cognition from content publishers, where as the rumor spreading includes bias/stereotypes from publishers, commercial publicities or public opinion incitement by certain social forces.
信息过载的显性结果就是认知成本的增加，但这里必须强调的是，信息传播（获取）成本的降低并不必然就会跟认知成本增加有直接的关系，我会在后面再展开讨论。但话分两头，认知成本的增加主要是体现在决策困难上面；不少人在关于职业、消费以及生活模式的选择面前，都会陷入或多或少的选择障碍，选择的动作本身其实并不足以构成障碍，你大可以硬选，也可以抛硬币，还可以给自己列个清单把所有有效选项都逐个对比一遍，考虑机会成本，忽略沉没成本，再给不同对比维度进行适当的赋值与加权，得出所谓的理性判断。所以作出选择并不难，难的是说服自己最终去做这些决定。这里可以拆分成两点来展开，一是价值判断，即理性与感性的冲突，你该选的跟你想选的并不一致；二是信息干扰，即有效信息的不充分，我们一方面不想作出鲁莽的决定，但另一方面当我们对这些选项进行了解的过程中，越是了解就越是发现糊涂，甚至质疑起我们选择的初衷与目的，想一口气推倒重来，而且这些并不是年青人独享的烦恼，中年人恐怕才是核心的受害对象吧，只不过后者往往会因为各种既定事实而被环境局限了他/她的选择空间，因此选择变得简单多了，但痛苦不减反增啊。
The overt result of information overload is an increase in cognitive costs, but it's important to note that a reduction in costs of information transmission (and acquisition) is not necessarily directly related to an increase in cognitive costs, on which I will discuss later. But for the time being, an increase in cognitive costs is largely reflected on one's difficulties in making decisions. For instance, many people get stuck in front of choices relating occupation, expenditure and life style. You can, of course, choose by straightforwardness; you can flip a coin. You can also make a lovely little list with all the valid options to compare with. Considering any opportunity costs, ignoring all sunk costs, and then assign proper weights to different dimensions of comparison so as to arrive at a so-called rational decision. Apparently, it's not that difficult to decide, it's however hard to convince yourself making the final call. Here we can divide the probable causes into two aspects: 1) judgment on values, that is, the conflict between reasoning and sensibility, 'what you should' contradicts with 'what you want'; and 2) information interference, that is, the inadequacy of effective information; on one hand, we don't want to make rash decisions; but on other hand, the harder we try to figure out the options the more confused we'll get; this could result in raising doubts against the intention and purpose of ours from the beginning, or even start all over again. Besides, these are not the concerns exclusive to the young, middle-aged people are probably the core victims of it, but their restricted circumstances somehow short-lists the amount of choices and therefore make it simpler, although the mental suffering come with it has not reduced but increased.
信息太多显然是让我们越来越难去快速准确作出选择的一个原因，但信息的数量多寡我认为并非根本原因，根本原因是在一个去中心化的互联网络环境里无法避免同质化内容的泛滥，而在不能充分打破信息过载在广度和深度方面的信息不对称前提下，单一层次（广度）的信息过载反而会为我们带来对于选错的恐惧，当然实践是检验的手段，但自然也是试错的手段。辩证来看，年轻固然是试错的资本，失败经验也是成功的基础，但如果已经有了现成的外部经验可以拿过来用，我们还愿意亲自试错吗？我们先假设这些外部经验都客观准确，并且可以精准复制、完美还原，比方说计算机芯片的研发，但你有考虑过专利陷阱和成本控制吗？再比方说畅销小说的写作，但你有考虑过天赋差异和舆论压力吗？那我们现在不妨撤销一下外部经验客观准确的假设，你还能将自己未来三五十年的时间与精力投入到一个认知不清的事物上吗？能，多数人在离开校园以后都有过这种经历。那后悔吗？不后悔，选择正确的人当然不后悔，那些选错了的人也不见得会后悔，或许是因为后悔也没用，所以干脆就嘴硬，又或许是出于感恩，感恩这个选择使他经历或遭遇到他当前认为是珍贵的那些人事物；但姑且假设真的可以让他们回到最初去重新选择，还会再选一次同样的选项吗？相信多数人都不愿意回答，不愿意回答这种“假设性”问题。
Having too much of information clearly explains why it is becoming difficult to make quick and accurate decision. But I believe it is not the fundamental cause. Rather, given a decentralized Internet environment, homogenized content can never be avoided. Without fully breaking the asymmetry of information overload in the senses of breadth and depth, overload of information at a single level (i.e. breadth) will instead bring us the fear of choosing wrong. There is, of course, practice is a means of examination, but naturally it is also a means of trials for error. Dialectically speaking, one might say, youth is the capital of trials for error, and the experiences from failure is the foundation of success. But let's say we already have existing external experience to work on, should we reinvent the wheels all over again to make a point?. Let's assume these external experiences are objective and accurate, and that they can be accurately adopted and perfectly reemerged; how about the development of computer chips? But have you got any ideas of patent traps and cost control? How about writing some of the best-selling novels then, but have you taken into account the differences in talent and public opinion? So let's remove the assumption above regarding the objectivity and accuracy of external experience. Would you devote all the time and efforts for the next 3 to 5 years to something you aren't fully prepared for? Certainly yes, most people have had such experience since they've left school. Any regret? Absolutely not, those chosen right won't be, and those chosen wrong don't have to be, as regret is indeed useless, why not stay tough. Perhaps, of course, reluctance to regret is purely out of gratitude to the choices allowing he/she to experience or encounter what he/she values greatly. But let's assume boldly that they can somehow travel back in time and face those choices again, will they actually do as they've just said? I believe a large number of them are unwilling to answer, unwilling to answer these 'hypothetical' question yet to be real.
