经济学人·世界2018特辑 | 悲惨世界

The Economist Intelligence Unit

经济学人智库

HAPPINESS

The world's most miserable countries

悲惨世界

The world's gloomiest country in the year ahead

未来一年全球前景最黯淡的国家

Forget happiness. Where will be the most miserable place in the year ahead? The World in 2018 asked the country analysts at The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a sister company to The Economist, for their pick. Sadly, they found plenty of competition.

别提快乐了。未来一年全球哪里最悲惨？《世界2018》邀请《经济学人》杂志的姐妹机构——经济学人智库——的国家分析师进行挑选，不幸的是，他们发现竞争还相当激烈。

Americans enraged by President Donald Trump and Britons in despair about Brexit will keep arguing over which country has it worse. Yet neither comes close to winning the global gloom contest. Among rich countries, a case can be made for Greece, still suffering after a catastrophic slump* in the euro crisis; Greeks were the most stressed people in the world in a recent Gallup survey. But in 2018 their economy should be growing again.

对特朗普总统心怀不满的美国人和因英国脱欧而绝望的英国人会继续争辩谁的国家更不幸。然而，在世界各国参与的竞争中，它们根本排不上号。希腊是唯一还有点竞争力的发达国家，它依然深陷欧债危机后的灾难性衰退。盖洛普最近一次调查发现，希腊人是世界上压力最大的国民，但该国经济在2018年应该会重拾增长。

*slump

1）a fall in the price, value, sales, etc. of something （价格、价值、销售额等的）猛跌，暴跌

2）a period when an industry or the economy is in a bad state and there is a lot of unemployment 萧条（期），衰落

North Korea could experience a double whammy* in 2018. Not only will it suffer under the ghastly dictatorship of Kim Jong Un, but it could face physical destruction if its war of words with Mr Trump turns into a real war. That prospect is scary, but still unlikely.

朝鲜在2018年将遭到双重打击。人民不仅要遭受金正恩的独裁统治，若是特朗普先生现阶段的唇枪舌剑升级为真实战争的话，他们还将面临物质毁灭的威胁。这前景非常可怖，不过不太可能成真。

*whammy：a magical spell or power that causes someone to have a difficult or unpleasant time 晦气，霉运（指给他人带来霉运和不快的不祥力量）

He put the whammy on me.

他带给我一身晦气。

Venezuela has a strong claim, too, despite being a middle-income country sitting on the world's largest oil reserves. Thanks to chronic mismanagement, its economy has shrunk by a quarter since 2014, and the EIU forecasts a further painful fall, of 6%, in 2018. Inflation is on course to exceed 1,000%. Foreign-exchange constraints will mean extreme shortages of food and medicine will continue. Debt default*, and a virtual economic collapse, are all too likely. Instead of tackling these woes*, President Nicolás Maduro seems more interested in trampling over the opposition, often violently. The presidential election due in 2018 will not be fair, if it happens at all.

委内瑞拉是个很强的竞争对手。虽然它是中等收入国家，坐享世界上最大的原油储存，但其经济由于长期管理不善，从2014年到现在萎缩了四分之一，据经济学人智库预测，在2018年还会继续下跌6%，通货膨胀即将超过1000%。外汇不足意味着食品和药品的极端匮乏仍将持续。债务违约以及虚拟经济崩溃的风险都极大。总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗似乎无心克服这些痛苦的根源，他的主要精力似乎都用在了镇压反对派，手段常常相当极端。本应在2018年举行的大选可能不会举行，就算举行也不会是公正的。

*debt default：债务违约；债务拖欠

*default：a failure to do something, such as pay a debt, that you legally have to do 拖欠，不履行债务；违约

*woes：big problems or troubles 困难；灾难；不幸

The country has been beset by economic woes for the past decade.

过去十年来这个国家一直受到经济困难的困扰。

Still, you might rather be there than in Yemen. It was already the poorest country in the Arab world even before its current civil war. But since early 2015 more than 10,000 civilians have been killed and 3m-4m internally displaced (closed borders make leaving the country difficult). Yemen is now on the brink of famine and is suffering from the largest cholera* outbreak in modern history (over 750,000 suspected cases, and rising). The worst is probably yet to come. 

但和也门一比，你也许宁愿待在委瑞内拉。也门早在内战爆发前就已经是阿拉伯世界最贫穷的国家。自2015年初以来，超过1万国民惨遭杀害，三四百万流离失所（国境已经关闭，他们很难离开自己的国家）。处于饥荒边缘的也门同时正经历现代历史上最大的霍乱爆发（超过75万起疑似病例，数字还在不断攀升）。最糟糕的可能还在后头。

*cholera：a serious infection of the bowels caused by drinking infected water or eating infected food, causing diarrhoea, vomiting, and often death 霍乱

That is hard to beat, you might think. Alas, several countries in sub-Saharan Africa will give Yemen a run for its money*. They include Burundi (one of the world's poorest countries, slipping into a deepening dictatorship); the Central African Republic (where sectarian violence is pushing out aid groups and refugee flows are increasing the risk of the country splitting into a Muslim north and a Christian south); and the Democratic Republic of Congo (where an intensifying political crisis risks destabilising its whole region, amid violence that displaced nearly 1m people in the first half of 2017).

你或许觉得也门在这场竞赛中的地位已经相当稳固。但有几个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家绝对不甘示弱。其中包括了津巴布韦（糟糕透顶的罗伯特·穆加贝必定会赢得又一次大选。译者注：2017年11月，穆加贝已辞去总统职务）、布隆迪（世界上最贫困的国家之一，正日益深陷独裁统治）、中非共和国（宗派暴力在驱逐国际援助组织，而难民潮正在加大整个国家分裂为穆斯林北部和基督徒南部的风险）以及刚果共和国（愈演愈烈的政治危机动摇了整个周边地区，2017年上半年超过100万人因为暴力被迫离开家园）。

*give sb a run for his/her/their money：to not allow someone to win easily 不让（某人）轻易取胜；让（某人）竭尽全力才获胜

We're going to give the other candidate a run for her money.

我们不会让另外的那个候选人轻易获胜的。

Newest and saddest of them all

全球最年轻的国家最惨

However, the unfortunate winner of the EIU's non-prize is the world's newest country, South Sudan. It gained independence in 2011 and has been in a state of crisis for almost all of its existence. Inflation has been above 150% since early 2016. The presidential and parliamentary terms run until July 2018, but there will either be no elections or at best a flawed one. Either could herald* a deeper disaster. The UN is warning that persistent tribal conflict could lead to genocide*. 

但最终获得经济学人智库这个无奖竞赛的，是最新成立的国家——南苏丹。它于2011年成立，此后几乎一直陷于危机中。通货膨胀自2016年初以来超过了150%。本届总统和议会任期于2018年7月截止，但选举也许不会举行，就算有也不会公正，无论如何都会带来更深重的灾难。联合国警告，持续的部落冲突可能会导致种族灭绝。

*herald：to be a sign that something important, and often good, is starting to happen, or to make something publicly known, especially by celebrating or praising it 预示…的开始；（尤指通过庆祝或赞扬）宣布（常指好事）

The president's speech heralds a new era in foreign policy.

总统的演说预示着一个外交政策新时代的开始。

*genocide：the murder of a whole group of people, especially a whole nation, race, or religious group （尤指对整个民族、种族或宗教团体的）大屠杀，种族灭绝

The country has fallen apart in all but name. Conflict between the army and tribal militias has led to widespread ethnic cleansing. Unpaid troops loot* aid convoys with impunity. A third of South Sudanese have fled their smouldering homes to avoid being killed. Many huddle in UN camps, and women are raped if they venture out for firewood. Some 6m people face acute hunger, and 1.7m are on the brink of famine. If security remains poor, and the rains are meagre* (again), the country could easily tip further into crisis. Nowhere will be more miserable in 2018.

该国已经四分五裂，唯名尚存。军队和部队民兵的冲突导致了大范围的种族清洗。得不到酬劳的部队肆无忌惮地洗劫运送援助的车队。三分之一的南苏丹人离开战火笼罩下的家园逃命，不少聚集在联合国难民营中，冒险外出寻找柴火的女性会惨遭强暴。南苏丹有600万人在忍饥挨饿，170万人距离饥荒只有一步之遥。如果安全问题没有得到改善，而降雨量今年依然稀少，该国眼看就会陷入更深的危机。在2018年，没有哪里比南苏丹更悲惨。

*loot：(usually of large numbers of people during a violent event) to steal from shops and houses （通常指在暴力事件中集体）抢劫，洗劫

*meagre：(of amounts or numbers) very small or not enough （数量）很少的，不足的

a meagre salary

微薄的薪水

中文翻译来源：《财经》杂志

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