苦苦煎熬

Yemen

也门

Anxious times

苦苦煎熬

From The Economist print edition

摘自《经济学人》印刷版

Violence in a notoriously rugged country has worsened

暴力冲突在也门愈演愈烈

A POOR, mountainous country that clings to the south-west tip of the Arabian peninsula, Yemen seems in danger of falling into Somalia's lap. Not physically, by toppling across the Gulf of Aden that separates the countries, though some may imagine that the influx of 100,000-plus destitute Somali refugees may shift its centre of gravity. The worry is that Yemen may tilt towards becoming a failed state.

穷困不堪，山峦绵亘的也门地处阿拉伯半岛的西南端。现在，也门看似陷入索马里掌控的危险之中。尽管有人认为，10万多名穷困无助的索马里难民的涌入也许会引发也门人口重心的转移，但由于两国隔着亚丁湾，也门不会在地域上受到威胁。不过，令人忧虑的是，也门有走向失败国家的可能倾向。

In the past few years, it has dropped to 153rd among the 177 countries listed in the UN's human-development index, a mix of such things as life expectancy, education and average income. More than a fifth of its 22m people are malnourished. Yemen imports 75% of its food, but even so it is using up scarce water supplies so fast that the aquifers most people rely on may dry up within a decade. Increasingly, with an estimated 17m guns flooding the country, tribes are clashing over access to wells.

《联合国人文发展指数》基于对177个国家的预期寿命，教育水准和人均收入等指标的综合评估，也门在过去几年间下降到当前的第153位。也门共有2200万人口，目前已有20%以上的民众面临营养不良的问题。也门境内75%的食物需要进口。即使如此，对稀乏淡水资源的快速消耗足以让也门大多民众赖以生存的蓄水层可能在10年内干涸。目前，也门拥有约1700万支枪，部落对水井的争夺冲突正愈演愈烈。

Yet other security problems are worse. Since 2004, a miniature war has sputtered in the far north, pitting tribesmen from the Zaidi Shia minority against the central government in Sana'a, which has used tanks and aircraft, as well as, say critics, Sunni jihadist volunteers, to subdue the rebels. Though outsiders are generally barred from the region, casualties have been estimated in the thousands, with tens of thousands of civilians forced to flee their homes. More than 50 people have been killed in the past week alone, at least 18 of them when a bomb went off by a mosque in the provincial capital, Saada.

另外，一些安全问题愈发严重。自2004年以来，也门遥远北方地区发生的小规模战争此起彼伏，裁德教什叶派少数民族的武装部落成员正在反抗萨那中央政府。评论家表示，萨那政府已调动坦克，战机和逊尼派圣战志愿者去镇压反叛者。尽管外来人员通常被拒之门外，但也门已约有数千人员伤亡，成千上万平民被迫逃离家园。仅在过去一周，就有50多人被杀，其中在首府萨达一所清真寺发生的爆炸造成至少18人丧生。

Unrest is rising in the far south, too, where resentment simmers over alleged discrimination since formerly separate South Yemen (once the British colony of Aden plus an outlying British protectorate of emirates) united with the more populous north in 1990. Big riots hit the city of Aden last month. And there have been a spate of small-scale attacks elsewhere, including mortar fire on the American embassy in Sana'a in March and on Italy's in April. Who was responsible is unclear. Islamist extremists related to al-Qaeda, which suffered setbacks when the government cracked down on it between 2001 and 2003, have regrouped and been reinforced by Yemeni jihadists returning from Iraq.

在也门遥远的南方地区，动乱事件同样也在增加。自此前分离的南也门国(曾经是英国在亚丁的殖民地，也是英国保护酋长的偏远领地)于1990年同人口众多的北部地区联合以来，南方地区民众对这一歧视行为愤怒不已。在上月，亚丁发生了大规模暴乱活动。一连串小规模袭击事件也在四处爆发，比如，美国驻萨那大使馆和意大利驻萨那大使馆分别在3月份和4月份遭到迫击炮袭击，但幕后元凶尚不清楚。在也门政府于2001年-2003年的打击下，遭受挫折的伊斯兰极端分子现正重整旗鼓，并受到从伊拉克归来的也门圣战分子的增援。伊斯兰极端分子同“基地”组织有联系。

Yemeni opponents of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled since 1978, suspect something murkier. Though co-operating at some levels with the West against jihadist terrorism, his regime, perhaps because of its many security headaches, has lately treated Sunni Islamist radicals more softly. Terrorist suspects have recently received light sentences or been allowed to “escape” from prison. Last month Mr Saleh met Robert Mueller, head of America's FBI, and is said to have rebuffed an appeal to hand over al-Qaeda members accused of involvement in an attack in 2000 on an American warship, the USS Cole, that killed 17 American sailors.

自于1978年上台以来，阿里•阿卜杜拉•萨利赫 (Ali Abdullah Saleh)总统的反对者怀疑局势会变得更为复杂。尽管在反对圣战恐怖主义上同西方国家展开一些合作，但或许是出于对种种棘手安全问题的考虑，萨利赫政府最近对待逊尼派伊斯兰激进分子的态度已显得比较温和。恐怖主义疑犯正被从轻发落或者允许从监狱内“逃出”。在上月会见美国联邦调查局局长穆勒时，据说萨利赫总统对向美移交“基地”组织成员的要求予以拒绝。这些“基地”组织成员被指控于2000年对美军科尔号驱逐舰实施了袭击，致使舰上17位美军遇难。